The latest Curie Portfolio review is now available over on the new blog site. As a Platinum member, if you have not registered as a Guest, please do so if you want to read this review.
While the Curie is not one of the five original portfolios selected for the ITA Risk Reduction test, I’ve begun to apply the ITARR model in order to preserve capital. Simply put, I am selling shares of ETFs that are priced below their 195-Day Exponential Moving Average and have a negative momentum. That “and” is important. I’m not sure if any examples will show up in this review, but if it happens I will point out what I am referring to.
Efficient Frontier: Once more we begin with the efficient frontier graph to view where the current portfolio is position with respect to an optimized portfolio. I’m slightly surprised the portfolio is as close to the optimized portfolio as it is considering the large holding in cash. The recent sales of several ETFs pulled the Return/Risk ratio down compared to where it was (light blue dot) last month.
Later this week the Curie Portfolio is up for review. The following data will be used to determine if any changes are recommended.
I put this blog together primarily to test the Host Server which has been temperamental to say the least.
Efficient Frontier: As the Curie currently stands, it is not all that far removed from an optimized portfolio based on the constraints placed on both asset classes and individual securities.
Since the last update of the Curie 33 days ago, shares of Berkshire (BRK-B), VTI, and VTV were added to the portfolio. We still hold a considerable amount of cash in this portfolio and that has been a drag on performance as the market continues to march forward. Platinum members will find the current condition of the Curie and the moves we intend to make based on the Momentum-Optimizer Model. Over the last six weeks we picked up 40 basis points on the ITA Index, the customized benchmark used for the Curie. Remember that the ITA Index is customized to each portfolio based on the asset allocation plan for that portfolio. Readers will find the Strategic Asset Allocation plan for the Curie in the following Dashboard.
Einstein Dashboard: The percentages with the white background are the target allocations. For example, 6.0% is allocated to Large-Cap Blend (LargeBlend), but we currently hold 13% so this asset class is above our target percentage. Instead of bringing this back to target, I am following the MOM plan and this fouls up the Dashboard. So far the Momentum-Optimization Model seems to be working as planned, but it is far too early to come to any conclusions.
As long as interest rates remain low and the threat of bond prices falling, expect to see a small allocation to bonds. Instead of using bonds as a portfolio risk reducer, we are going to rely on either the ITA Risk Reduction model or MOM to guard against major draw-downs. Commodities and Metals are out of favor as well.
Einstein Performance: Here we have the performance data for the Curie and this screen shot comes directly out to the TLH Spreadsheet. For those readers not familiar with the TLH Spreadsheet, I highly recommend learning how to use this portfolio tracking program. There is a significant learning curve, but there are numerous video/audio “Camtasia’s” to help interested investors learn how to use this software. So far, the TLH Spreadsheet is still free.
The large holding in cash is due to sales of VWO, RWX, PCY, IDV, and VEU in an effort to optimize this portfolio. A limit order is in place to add to the current BRK-B (or BRK.B) position. I first bought Berkshire back on May 23. Several other limit orders are also in place in an effort to improve the Return/Risk ratio.
Curie Dashboard: The following Dashboard (one of the worksheets from the TLH Spreadsheet) illustrates in what asset class the securities reside. We are moving out of commodities and metals as both DBC and GLT are priced well below their 195-Day Exponential Moving Averages. To see the direction we are going with many of these portfolios, check this recent article on Seeking Alpha.
Since the Curie preparation two days ago, I sold 100 shares of TLT out of this portfolio. That sale reduces the percentage in bonds to about as low as I expect to go. I would like to hold a higher percentage in international bonds, otherwise, this portfolio will go into neglect mode for another 33 days.
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In a few days the Curie Portfolio is up for review. In advance of that update, here is what the portfolio looks like and what changes might be appropriate in light of the following information. First we examine the Efficient Frontier graph, followed by the ETF ranking, and Buy-Hold-Sell Recommendations.
Efficient Frontier: The current allocation plan, even holding $40,000 in cash, is closely aligned with the optimized portfolio. This does not mean one should not look for ways to improve the portfolio. As mentioned in an earlier post, the percentage allocated to bonds and treasury securities will be limited as we constantly review this portfolio.
The following material is not for publication elsewhere on the Internet.
Thirty-three days passed since the last Curie review and the only transactions involved the sale of gold (GTU) and TIPS (TIP). These changes were made to further optimize the Curie. Limit orders are in place to pick up more equity shares, but those have yet to be struck. We have plenty of cash to put to use. First quarter dividends were a boost to the Curie, otherwise the only changes were minor.
This information is not for publication elsewhere on the Internet.
Curie Dashboard: I did tweak the Strategic Asset Allocation plan by increasing U.S. Equities from 29% of the portfolio up to 31%. I lowered the allocation to bonds, developed international and emerging markets and increased the allocation to both domestic and international REITs. These changes elevated the ITA Index so it will be more difficult to top that customized benchmark.
Since the Curie Portfolio was last updated 32 days ago, Gold was added as a new asset class. To raise cash for this new asset class, shares of Mid- and Small-Cap Blend were sold. More shares of DBC were added, but commodities is still under target. Limit orders will be set to bring this asset class back into balance.
Unlike the Euclid, the Curie Portfolio is much closer to meeting the Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) goals. This analysis will include the usual Dashboard and Performance Data, but in addition I’ve taken all the critical investments and set to optimizing what the QPP software projects is a better SAA. Follow along as there is a lot of material to wade through.
This material is not for publication elsewhere on the Internet.