When Was The Last Time The Bullish Percent Indicators Turned Bullish?

Mt. Hood B&W

“Do you have enough data yet to have a sense of how far in advance or behind these changes are for market down turns or up turns. Clearly they are trailing data but maybe they can help us avoid major declines?”

Bob Warasila asked the above question this morning so I went back into my Bullish Percent Indicators spreadsheet for the answer.  The last time the BPI was oversold for most of the major indexes or showed BPI values below the 30% line was back in 8/5/2011 through 10/7/2011.  For reference, check out what the VTI index fund looked like during that period.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VTI&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89174772557

Readers can see the U.S. Equities market hit a low in August of 2011 and a lower low in October of 2011.

An over-bought condition began to show up in January of 2012 and continues through this week.

 

Optimizing a Basic Portfolio: 3 and 5 Year Analysis

The sample portfolio shown below consists of 16 ETFs that cover all major markets found in the eleven portfolios tracked here at ITA Wealth Management.  VTI covers all of the “Big Nine” asset classes.  We add VIG for added dividends and IWN for any possible push toward small-cap value, or where Fama and French find added alpha.

VEU is our developed international market and VWO is the ETF used for emerging markets.  With these few ETFs we now have global coverage.  The remaining five asset classes are commodities (DBC), domestic REITs (VNQ), international REITs (RWX), emerging markets sovereign debt (PCY), gold (GTU) and bonds.  A number of bond and treasury ETFs cover corporate and different length bond options.  The optimizer seeks out the best opportunities.

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Bullish Percent Indicators: Markets Beginning to Weaken

For the first time in many weeks we are beginning to see some cracks develop in what has been a very strong stock market.  To see what I mean, examine the two screenshots shown below.

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