“Do you have enough data yet to have a sense of how far in advance or behind these changes are for market down turns or up turns. Clearly they are trailing data but maybe they can help us avoid major declines?”
Bob Warasila asked the above question this morning so I went back into my Bullish Percent Indicators spreadsheet for the answer. The last time the BPI was oversold for most of the major indexes or showed BPI values below the 30% line was back in 8/5/2011 through 10/7/2011. For reference, check out what the VTI index fund looked like during that period.
Readers can see the U.S. Equities market hit a low in August of 2011 and a lower low in October of 2011.
An over-bought condition began to show up in January of 2012 and continues through this week.