Curie Portfolio Update: 31 December 2012

With all the dividends reported today, the Curie Portfolio is not completely current as most of the distributions are not yet identified.  Those year-end additions are unlikely to alter the Dashboard data shown below to Platinum members.  Another $1500 of dividends will be added to the current total when the broker statement is available in a few days.  The yield from the Curie is a little over 2.5% per year.

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Delta Factor Projections for International Countries

Based in a request from a Platinum member, here are the Delta Factor (DF) projections for the international countries I track on a regular basis.  As might be expected, since DF relies on reversion-to-the-mean principles, countries that are in trouble show up as the best opportunities over the next several years.  Investors need to perform their own research as the Delta Factor is just one indicator as to future investment opportunities.

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Bullish Percent Indicators Are Not Calling For a Panic

Regardless of the “fiscal cliff” problems, the Bullish Percent Indicators for both the broad indexes and individual sectors are not showing any signs of a panic or sell-off.  There are even pockets of strength as Platinum members will see in the following slides.

The following material is not available for publication elsewhere on the Internet.

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Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio: What Is Behind The Asset Allocation?

The December 2012 issue of the American Association of Individual Investors Journal carried an interesting article, The Permanent Portfolio: Using Allocation to Build and Protect Wealth.  The article is all about Harry Browne’s portfolio laid out several decades ago.  Browne recommended the follow asset allocation.

1. 25% in stocks.

2. 25% in bonds

3. 25% in cash

4. 25% in gold

On face value, this is a very conservative portfolio, yet over the last 40 years the allocation plan returned 9.5% compounded annually.  From the AAII article, “The worst loss, a drop of 5%, occurred in 1981.  In 2008’s financial crisis, the portfolio was down only around 2% for the year.”

The following material is not for publication elsewhere on the Internet.

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Madison Portfolio Update: 28 December 2012

Of the eleven portfolios tracked here at ITA Wealth Management, the Madison is one of three where the asset allocation plan is visible to Platinum members, but not all the individual transactions.  Permission was not granted to divulge all the details of the Maxwell, Euclid or Madison.

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Possible Portfolio For 2013

As we look forward to 2013, what might a possible portfolio look like considering the uncertain future.  In the following QPP analysis I built this possible portfolio using the Swensen Six Portfolio as a base.  Then I added several risk adverse ETFs as Platinum members can see.

The following material is not available for publication elsewhere on the Internet.

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Bonds and Income ETFs: Does It Make Sense To Include In Portfolio?

For several years word on the street was that interest rates would rise and bonds would fall in price.  That has not happened and all the “bond Eeyore’s” have been wrong, including me.  With interest rates as low as they now are when will we see a turn?  According to the FED, interest rates will remain low so long as unemployment remains high.  That is the current correlation.

What is the outlook for bonds going forward if we apply a three-year Quantext Portfolio Planner analysis and examine the Delta Factor projections.  Keep in mind the Delta Factor projections tend to be early in their call.  And by early, it can be as much as six to fifteen months in advance of what is likely to happen.  Platinum members will see what a portfolio of bonds looks like and the Delta Factor projections going forward.

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Merry Christmas

Wishing everyone a very Merry Christmas.

 

Reflections

Kenilworth Portfolio Update: 24 December 2012

Here it is, Christmas Eve, and time again to update the Kenilworth Portfolio.  As one of the five ITA Risk Reduction model portfolios, only one critical ETF, the commodities DBC is currently priced below its 195-Day Exponential Moving Average.  The Kenilworth holds a minimum position in commodities for the purpose of calculating the ITA Index.  In other words, the ITA Index is measured as if there is a full 5% position held in commodities.  If the decision to move out of DBC due to the price – moving average decision works out, then the portfolio gains on the customized index.  However, if the move goes against the manager, then the portfolio suffers and falls behind the ITA Index.  The ITA Index is calculated on the basis of the Strategic Asset Allocation plan or the percentages with the white background in the following Dashboard.

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A Festival of Carols in Brass

Pete - Doll from 1930s

A Festival of Carols in Brass performed by the Philadelphia Brass Ensemble is my last Christmas CD recommendation for 2012.  Here are two Amazon reviews.

“This collection is over thirty years old and it sets the standard for Christmas brass music. It would be my guess that many of people who already own this disc first purchased it as an LP. Others will purchase the disc because their parents and grandparents owned the disc and it has become a holiday musical tradition. Over the years it has been one of Columbia’s best selling albums and listeners will easily understand why. Listeners will almost feel as if the Salvation Army Band is right outside serenading Christmas shoppers. Listeners will quickly discover that many of the tracks of this collection are familiar from radio play. Probably the most creative and perhaps best known arrangements are the group’s version of “The Twelve Days of Christmas.” You cannot go wrong purchasing this disc.”

“Several raters have complained about the lack of a listing of the performers on this disc. The Philadelphia Brass Ensemble was nothing more than the principal and second players of the Philadelphia Orchestra. Perhaps “nothing more” is not the best way to describe this as the performers were, at the time, some of the best players in the US. Gilbert Johnson (trumpet) was considered (until his death from cancer a few years ago) one of the finest trumpeters to ever have played in a symphony orchestra. When I was growing up, Henry Charles Smith (trombone) was the model we all looked up to for how a orchestral principal trombone should sound. He was the Joseph Alessi of the time. The same could be said for Mason Jones (french horn) and Abe Torchinsky (tuba). All of these players had students who are playing in major symphony orchestras around the world and continue to inspire future performers through their many recordings. To my knowlege, the performers are:

Gilbert Johnson (Trumpet)
Seymour Rosenfeld (Trumpet)
Mason Jones (French Horn)
Henry Charles Smith (Trombone)
Tyrone Breuninger (Trombone)
M. Dee Stewart (Euphonium)
Abe Torchinsky (Tuba)”