If you are looking for Blood In The Street, look no further than the "Delta Factor" projections for an array of equity ETFs. Keep in mind that the following projections are reversion-to-the-mean calculations and when one has witnessed a powerful bull market as we experienced since March of 2009, it will not come as a surprise to readers that future projections are unlike to continue at such a pace. Therefore, prepare for retracement in equities. While the future projections don't look that bad, my experience is that when both Delta and Delta Factor show this much red, the probability is not with the long-term investor.
When I ran the same calculation using five years of data, the projections were not quite as dismal, so the time frame is critical. Nevertheless, playing the odds, it will pay to be cautious until after the fall elections.
Followers of the ITA Risk Reduction (ITARR) model know we are out of foreign developed markets, foreign emerging markets, and commodities. With a few portfolios, depending on when they were last reviewed, we are out of specific asset classes and in cash or income generating instruments. This caution is in line with the following "Delta Factor" projections.