The quick answer is, NO. Why is it too early to move back into the commodity ETF? Let me count the ways. First, start with the PnF graph, shown in the first slide. Today's big drop is shown with a 6 showing up in the right-hand column. That 6 indicates DBC had another one box drop in June which means we are adding another O in this column. Supply for DBC exceeds demand so the price continues to drop. This is definitely a negative signal and is sufficient to keep us from moving back into this ETF. A bear market is in full force for DBC. StockCharts is calling this a Triple Bottom Breakdown.
Moving Averages: Confirming the PnF graph above, the following set of moving averages also tells us to stay away from DBC. In the first graph we see the price of DBC is well below its 195-Day EMA and the 13-Day EMA is below the 34-Day EMA. All negative signals.
Shifting down to the second graph, Relative Strength Indicator, DBC moved into the oversold region (17.1) by dipping well below the 30 threshold. When an ETF moves this far down on the RSI graph, any sign of a turnaround is cause to pick up shares at a bargain. No turnaround signals are showing up for DBC.
Of less importance, but still confirming the "stay away" condition for DBC is the negative signals coming from MACD and CMF graphs.
When an ETF is this far in the basement, what does one look for as a possible buying opportunity. 1) I want to see the 13-Day EMA move from below to above the 34-Day EMA. This indicator will lead our ITARR buy signal. 2) I want to see X's in the right-hand column of the DBC PnF graph. The bear market for DBC needs to be arrested. 3) The Bullish Percent Indicator (BPI) for the NYSE should show X's in the right-hand column indicating a market reversal. We could be waiting till the fall for all this to happen.