100 Level

Why The Next Twenty Years Will Not Likely Repeat The Market From 1982 – 2000

Investors who participated in the Great Bull Market from August of 1982 through March of 2000 are not likely to witness a repeat of that market for another two decades, if not longer.  Why the pessimistic position?  Here are the reasons as I see them. Demographics:  With 10,000 "boomers" retiring each day, downward pressure is placed on stocks as retirees withdraw … [Read More...]

Where To Begin If You Have Never Managed A Portfolio

If someone asked you what to do with an inheritance or 401(k) sum of money, what advice would you give them?  Here are some basic ideas for a novice investor. Assume the money is in your checking account and available to be invested. Open up a broker account with a discount broker.  For example, go to a "bricks and mortar" location if possible and fill out the forms.  A good idea is to print … [Read More...]

300 Level

Sixteen Dividend Stocks

Platinum members interested in selecting individual stocks will be interested in this list of dividend oriented companies. In the first screen shot we have the screens applied to over 9800 stocks.  From this group we extract only sixteen.  Those companies are shown in the second screen.   Several of the sixteen stocks that make this "dividend" cut are part of the … [Read More...]

Sample Portfolio Requested By Platinum Member

The following set of tickers and percentages were sent to me for analysis.  I used five years of historical data and set, as I generally do, a 7.0% return projection for the S&P 500.  I used TIP (1.0%) for the cash holding.  That choice has little impact on the final projections.    Below is the analysis data.  Instead of me writing up my observations, I'll … [Read More...]

200 Level

QPP Analysis of Another Low Risk Retirement Portfolio

The nexus for the following portfolio begins with this Seeking Alpha article and the follow-up QPP analysis of a portfolio suggested by a SA reader.  A link to the second analysis can be found here.  And now we come to the third portfolio in this series of low risk retirement plans.  This last set of ETFs was suggested by a reader of the ITA blog. The four ETFs that make up this … [Read More...]

Stress Testing the Kepler Portfolio

Next week the Kepler Portfolio is up for review.  In advance of that update I am running what I call a "stress test" assuming this to be your retirement portfolio.  Given a set of assumptions laid out in the first slide, would this portfolio last through retirement? Here we have a 40 year-old who plans to retire in 2040 at age 68.  Having already saved $200,000 and planning to put away another … [Read More...]

400 Level

VTI And The ITA Risk Reduction Model

At the request of a long-time Platinum member, I am going to examine a number of key ETFs used to populate specific asset classes in an effort to see how well the ITA Risk Reduction model worked over the last four months.  Keep in mind that no one ever stated that the ITARR model, or a variation such as the Faber-Richardson model, will work all the time, month after month.  Where the … [Read More...]

Delta Factor Results From Recommended Stocks

Adding a few recommended stocks to the "Mad Money" group, plus a few more, and Platinum members have the beginnings of some interesting companies.  No recommendations are implied.  I have room for another 15 to 17 before I need to create another list.  ROIC does not have the requisite history, so take that into consideration.  For this QPP analysis I used a 57-month … [Read More...]