100 Level

Sample 4 ETF Portfolio

Another Platinum member asked for an evaluation or analysis of this four (4) ETF portfolio. Efficient Frontier:  This EF graph is instructive as one can easily see how the four ETFs are influencing the final outcome.  IEF and TIP dominate the portfolio and move the current (diamond dot) mix of ETFs down in the lower left portfolio of the graph.  Increasing percentages to SPY and EFA would … [Read More...]

Ten Biggest Investor Mistakes – # 8

  ITA Wealth Management Mistake #8:  Over confident and lacks patience.   Over confidence and lack of patience manifests itself in a number of ways. If you think you can beat the market by picking individual stocks, be very careful.  If you want to test your skills, set up two portfolios.  Use a passive approach with one and build it along the lines of portfolios … [Read More...]

300 Level

Faber – Richardson “Ivy Model” Review

In response to a recent question, allow me to review the Faber - Richardson model as described in their book, "The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets."  The ITA Risk Reduction model focuses on the "Avoid Bear Markets" part of the Faber book. Here are the basic Faber - Richardson rules one can use with any portfolio.  Investors … [Read More...]

Portfolio Review: Schrodinger Update – June 16, 2011

Schrodinger Portfolio Review It is time to review the Schrodinger Portfolio, perhaps the most "passively" managed portfolio tracked here at ITA Wealth Management.  We still hold ETFs purchased back in late 2000 and early 2001.  The asset allocation plan has changed very little over the ten plus years of operation.  During this period a few iShares were sold as we moved … [Read More...]

200 Level

Bohr Portfolio Review: 23 April 2012

This last week in April looks to be a full one as four portfolios are up for review.  This morning I am updating the Bohr.  Moments ago I checked the TD Ameritrade Bohr account for dividends paid out by BND, TLT, and TIP.  Note the addition of the International Bonds asset class in the following Dashboard, even though I have yet to allocate a specific percentage to this new asset … [Read More...]

Capital Markets Outlook and Retirement Payout Percentage

Platinum members are well aware of my conservative recommendations when it comes to the payout percentage during retirement.  While it is common to suggest a payout of 5% during retirement, I advocate pulling out as little as 2% per year and no more than 4%.  Lowering the payout rate "insures" one will not run out of money in retirement.  I hope to have a spreadsheet that … [Read More...]

400 Level

The Condition of Bonds Using Delta Factor

What is the current condition of bond ETFs and should they be part of the portfolio?  To examine this question one method of analysis is to apply the Delta Factor.  When I run a reversion-to-the-mean analysis on bonds, I use AGG as the reference or standard.  For equity ETFs I use the VTSMX total stock index fund.  In the following table each bond ETF is compared with the … [Read More...]

Why Pay Any Attention to the Bullish Percent Indicator?

Are there logical reasons to support paying attention to the Bullish Percent Indicator?  Simply put, the Bullish Percent Indicator (BPI) draws special attention when the market or market sectors are overbought or oversold.  When the BPI exceeds the 70 percent level, it is time to be wary of the market.  Demand is high and supply is low.  Everyone that wants in the market and … [Read More...]