100 Level

ITA Risk Reduction Update

Where do we stand with ETF prices and their respective 195-Day Exponential Moving Averages?  As I am updating all the portfolios this month, I am paying close attention to the five (Maxwell, Euclid, Madison, Kenilworth, and Gauss) portfolios to see if changes are necessary based on the ITARR model.  I checked all the primary ETFs used to populate the asset classes and all are priced above their … [Read More...]

Alternative Portfolio: Increasing Allocation to PAAIX

Last week I published two portfolios that included the private equity ETF, PSP.  Here are links to the first and the second portfolios.  In the following portfolio, the allocation to PAAIX is moved up to 24% in hopes of pulling down portfolio volatility.  The assumptions in this analysis are identical to the previous two portfolios.  I did include last Friday's data in this … [Read More...]

300 Level

Portfolio Monitoring – Kepler Portfolio – 6 June 2011

Kepler Portfolio Monitoring Asset Allocation is one of our guiding principles, and it is modeled properly in the Dashboard of the Kepler Portfolio.  To get to this point I did need to allocate 1% point to cash and reduce Large-Cap Blend by one percentage point.  I am still using a 25% threshold with this portfolio as the total portfolio value is modest.  Nevertheless, this is the … [Read More...]

Conservative Portfolio

Below is the QPP analysis of a portfolio suggested by an ITA reader. The portfolio is made up from a wide array of index funds and ETFs.  The projected return of 4.44% immediately indicates this is a conservative portfolio as it is projected to return 2.6% below that projected for the S&P 500.  The projected standard deviation is also low at 8.1%, and the Risk/Volatility ratio at … [Read More...]

200 Level

Portfolio Development: Thinking Through First Steps

Several readers have been asking for advice as to which portfolio to follow and is there any philosophy behind the different portfolios?  The portfolios are owned by many different individuals so the portfolios are designed with those investors in mind.  I have had a major role in the Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) plans of each.  Individual investors differ in their income and … [Read More...]

Simplified “Holy Grail” Portfolio: A 12-ETF Approach

12-ETF Portfolio Following up on yesterday's blog post, here is a simplified revision of the "Holy Grail" portfolio.  Any time one can reduce the number of holdings and improve the return and volatility projections, give the new portfolio high marks.  The following group of twelve (12) ETFs provides a higher Return/Risk ratio than the portfolio discussed yesterday.  … [Read More...]

400 Level

SORDEX Ratio: Will I Run Out of Money?

Stress Testing the 12-ETF Portfolio What in the world is the Moshe Milevsky SORDEX Ratio? SORDEX is an acronym for Sequence-of-Returns Downside Exposure. Translated for T. C. PITS or The Common Person In The Street, it is a way to run several Monte Carlo calculations and see if you are likely to run out of money in retirement. If that is confusing, let me try to explain in great detail … [Read More...]

Repositioning Madison Portfolio

ITA Wealth Management readers checking the latest Portfolio Performance* data table will observe that the Madison Portfolio is lagging the VTSMX benchmark.  In an effort to push this portfolio performance to a higher level, I am going to employ the ITA Risk Reduction (ITARR) model, or the same one being used for the Maxwell and Euclid portfolios.  This will require selling some current … [Read More...]