100 Level

Gordon Equation Revisited

Back on December 16, 2009, I wrote the following over on the old blog. Market Return = Dividend Yield + Dividend Growth Rate is known as the Gordon Equation. This simple equation provides a way to predict long-term stock market returns, and we need to emphasize long-term.  Quoting Bernstein from his “Four Pillars of Investing” book, page 57, “…the Gordon Equation … [Read More...]

Beginning Investors: Morningstar Article Is Must Read

Beginning investors will definitely want to read this article.  If confused as to which ETFs to use, go with Vanguard and keep it simple and inexpensive.  Begin your account with VTI and then expand from there. I have no idea why the author of the article did not include VWO as the emerging market ETF in the Vanguard portfolio.       … [Read More...]

300 Level

Value Oriented Portfolio

Last evening a value oriented portfolio was mailed to me so I thought I would run it through a Quantext Portfolio Planner analysis.  Unfortunately, three of the thirteen ETFs have "short records."  This simply means the data does not extend back a minimum of three years. The ETFs with limited data are: MGV, VXUS, and VSS.  Nevertheless, here are the results. To view this … [Read More...]

Modified Momentum Investment Strategy

Instead of writing out a detailed explanation of how one might modify the Feynman Model (as presented in Part 5), I prepared a YouTube "Camtasia" to illustrate how one might use the Hoadley-HedgeHunter spreadsheet to manage a momentum oriented portfolio. … [Read More...]

200 Level

Retirement Rule #4: Maximize Contributions to Employer Retirement Savings Plan

If you are fortunate and work for an employer who has any sort of matching savings plan, by all means take advantage of this offer and maximize your contribution.  To do otherwise is to leave good money on the table.  For example, assume your employer will match dollar for dollar any contribution you make to a saving plan up to 4% of your salary.  Further, assume you are earning $40,000 per year.  … [Read More...]

Preparting for Retirement: A Financial Problem Demanding a Solution

Preparing for the financial aspects of retirement is reaching a crisis level in the United States - if articles and government statistics are close to truthful.  Here are a few sobering links to information about this growing problem. The End of the American Dream Americans Not Ready for Retirement Retirement ready--or not? It is difficult to advise someone to save if they … [Read More...]

400 Level

Portfolio Risk: Advantages of Semivariance

Semivariance: Preferred Risk Measurement Portfolio risk is given lip service, but rare is the investor who takes pains to actually measure the risks involved in the makeup of their portfolio. It is common to hear an investor indicate they have a well-diversified portfolio if it is made up of more than 15 to 20 stocks. The correlation between the investments might be a mystery, yet the claim is … [Read More...]

What Are We Looking For?

Check out the following PnF graph.  This PnF graph is a composite of the New York Stock Exchange stocks.  Check out the long retracement since the composite topped out in the 78 region.  Read the Status where a Bear Alert was given back on April 16th.  It is looking like that was a great call.  … [Read More...]