100 Level

A Twist to the ITA Risk Reduction Model

Photograph: Mountains near Emerald Bay at Lake Tahoe.  Taken from the California side of the lake. While we want to keep the ITA Risk Reduction model as simple as possible, there is another wrinkle available for sophisticated investors.  Platinum readers will be interested in the explanation that follows. Platinum membership is available for $5.00 per month.  Learn how to reduce … [Read More...]

Bullish Percent Indicators Take Hit

As projected for a number of weeks, the market finally took a breather and retraced this past week.  The evidence is clear when one examines the index and sector tables. Index BPIs:  We find every index below the 70% line or what we think of as an overbought condition.  While we are not rooting for the market to decline, we are well aware that it cannot maintain those lofty heights for an … [Read More...]

300 Level

Kepler Portfolio Update: 13 August 2012

A few weeks ago I explained the changes that were coming in the Kepler Portfolio.  The following "bloody" Dashboard shows the changes that were put into place.  All the growth asset classes were lowered from 3% to 2%, putting all above target.  The allocation to U.S. Equities was lowered to 30% and those assets helped to increase exposure to domestic real estate.  The … [Read More...]

Seasonal Timing Strategy

As we approach the end of the month, review this blog entry I posted back on September 2nd.  Also run a search for Seasonal Timing Strategy to find more blog entries on this subject. … [Read More...]

200 Level

Low Risk Retirement Portfolio

Yesterday, I wrote an article for Seeking Alpha and one reader suggested a simple portfolio where equal percentages be allocated to VTI, GLD, SHY, and TLT.  Exactly what does such a portfolio look like when a Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) analysis is applied?  What does the correlation matrix look like and would such a portfolio work as one prepares for retirement?  The following … [Read More...]

Portfolio Performance – 27 August 2010

While this was not a particularly strong week for the broad market, the six (Curie, Newton, Schrodinger, Einstein, Kepler & Bohr) portfolios I updated this week performed better than expected. In general, the six portfolios showed improvement in both the Sortino and ITA ratios. Due to broad diversification, most of the six picked up ground on the broad market as measured by the VTSMX … [Read More...]

400 Level

ITARR Working As Planned

When the ITA Risk Reduction model was instituted several months ago, the logic behind the plan was to take a few portfolios that were lagging their benchmarks and see if there was a way to turn that situation around.  So long as the market was moving up and the prices of the various ETFs never dipped below their 195-Day EMAs, I did not expect to see much change in the Internal Rate of Return … [Read More...]

Managing Portfolio Uncertainty: How Does It Work?

In an effort to improve performance results and reduce portfolio volatility, a Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) plan has been activated for both the Maxwell and Euclid portfolios.  Checking the latest Portfolio Performance data table, we see these two portfolios are trailing the VTSMX benchmark, an unacceptable condition.  Keep in mind this is an extreme strategy, but it is based on … [Read More...]