100 Level

The Condition of Bonds Using Delta Factor

What is the current condition of bond ETFs and should they be part of the portfolio?  To examine this question one method of analysis is to apply the Delta Factor.  When I run a reversion-to-the-mean analysis on bonds, I use AGG as the reference or standard.  For equity ETFs I use the VTSMX total stock index fund.  In the following table each bond ETF is compared with the … [Read More...]

Passive and Index Investing

Passive or Index Investing Yesterday I defined active investing and today I am writing about Passive Investing and Index Investing. Since these terms are used interchangeably, I want to discuss both as there are slight differences.  What I don't know is if the broad investing community makes any distinction between passive and index investing. Here is how I view the two investing … [Read More...]

300 Level

Stock Picking: Why It Is So Difficult To Be Successful

Shortly before the editor to the old blog collapsed, I posted this entry and I want readers to be sure to see it. Are you tracking the performance of your portfolio and measuring the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) with respect to the IRR of an appropriate benchmark? If not, why not? Investors not engaged in this level of measurement will likely find this discussion of little use. Shall we say, … [Read More...]

Bohr Portfolio Update

Although a tad early for an update on the Bohr Portfolio, two limit orders were struck recently and I want to make readers aware of those additions.  As usual, the first examination is to view the Dashboard from the TLH spreadsheet.  Below is that screen shot.  The limit orders were for mid-cap blend, now in balance, and emerging markets, still below target.  The emerging … [Read More...]

200 Level

Active vs. Passive Investing: Part 11

Section Eleven of the Active vs. Passive paper poses several interesting issues.  In the first paragraph the author points out that it is the active investors who 'correct' the market.  This implies the market is efficient, even though the second paragraph implies the reverse is true.  Passive investors should be grateful there are active investors as they do help to create … [Read More...]

Portfolioist Portfolio: Looking For Additional Diversification

Before digging into the following Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) analysis too deeply, read Geoff Considine's articles on portfolio diversification.  The first article lays out the basic logic for diversification and the second article goes into more details.  In the following analysis, I take the portfolio and run it through the QPP wringer to see what projections are in store for … [Read More...]

400 Level

Latest Bullish Percent Indicators

Readers looking for the latest Bullish Percent Indicators will find them at this site.  These results simply underline what I've been saying for weeks - this is an overbought market.  One of the ways to protect capital is to implement the ITA Risk Reduction model or simply go to cash at some point when the market backs off these high levels.  That is an extremely difficult call to make.  I'm … [Read More...]

Possible Enhancement of ITA Risk Reduction Model

Is it possible to improve on the basic ITA Risk Reduction model?  Of course it is, but the question that immediately comes to the fore is how complicated does one want to get when it comes to reducing risk.  To review the original ITARR model, click on this link.  Once readers have the basic ITARR model in mind, take a look at the StockCharts graph for the VNQ ETF as shown below. … [Read More...]