100 Level

Bond Market: Important Article

Platinum members will want to read this important article from Seeking Alpha.  This paper is not an unusual or "off the wall" position. … [Read More...]

Preparing For The Deficit Debate

What options are available to investors as we approach the deficit debate?  For many years raising the debt limit was a non-event.  However, it is a different political climate and we now need to cope with a large number of "non-negotiators" which in turn bring uncertainty to the financial markets all over the globe.  To deal with these uncertainties, here are some possible suggestions as to how … [Read More...]

300 Level

New TLH Spreadsheet Help Audio/Video for Recalculation Error

In the benchmark and Internal Rate of Return data table, found in the upper left-hand corner of the primary worksheet, one sometimes sees the boxes filled with #REF! errors.  This is usually caused by the "Mosaic" or primary worksheet inability to find data from the Distribution Worksheet necessary to run a calculation on the benchmarks.  Thus the #REF! error.  I've … [Read More...]

Staying On The Right Side Of The Market With A Ten ETF Portfolio

Remaining on the right side of the market is critical to reducing portfolio risk.  Platinum members should be well aware of the ITA Risk Reduction model, our first line of defense.  Remember Faber's axiom that ETFs are more volatile when they are priced below the 200-Day Simple Moving Average.  Here at ITA we use a faster EMA, but the difference is not significant and the … [Read More...]

200 Level

Alternative Portfolio: Increasing Allocation to PAAIX

Last week I published two portfolios that included the private equity ETF, PSP.  Here are links to the first and the second portfolios.  In the following portfolio, the allocation to PAAIX is moved up to 24% in hopes of pulling down portfolio volatility.  The assumptions in this analysis are identical to the previous two portfolios.  I did include last Friday's data in this … [Read More...]

Asset Allocation: How Important Today?

Asset Allocation Due to a recent Ibbotson study (Unfortunately, this article now requires one to register.) asset allocation is not the investment elixir today it was thought to be in the late 1980s and 1990s. Nevertheless, it remains the best method for constructing portfolios if our goal is to outperform a broad market benchmark index such as the VTSMX while reducing portfolio risk. Readers of … [Read More...]

400 Level

Where Are We With Respect To The ITA Risk Reduction Model?

With several "ITARR" portfolios coming up for review, what is the condition of the critical ETFs we use to populate our portfolios.  The critical ETFs are: VTI, VNQ, RWX, IWN, VEU, VEA, VWO, DBC, PCY, etc.  To examine these ETFs and others that may be used by investors, go to this site and request the ETF, index fund, or stock of interest.  VTI is the example shown in the link. … [Read More...]

Latest Bullish Percent Indicators

Readers looking for the latest Bullish Percent Indicators will find them at this site.  These results simply underline what I've been saying for weeks - this is an overbought market.  One of the ways to protect capital is to implement the ITA Risk Reduction model or simply go to cash at some point when the market backs off these high levels.  That is an extremely difficult call to make.  I'm … [Read More...]