100 Level

A Modest Proposal: “New Normal” Portfolio #2

As a follow up to the earlier post this morning, let me propose another "New Normal" style portfolio. This is a variation of the portfolio Bob W. set up several months ago. Keep in mind that I am using a 3.5% inflation rate and the projected return for the S&P 500 over the next year is 7.3% instead of the Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) default projection of 8.3%. Below is a screen … [Read More...]

Eight Asset Porfolio

Photograph: When I first walked Devastation Trail in late 1961 or early 1962, there was no vegetation to be seen as it was soon after the eruption. Consider the following portfolio that holds eight assets including cash.  In this analysis, I am using the 20-year treasury ETF, TLT, to represent cash, a substitution that gives the portfolio a slight boost over current money market rates.  … [Read More...]

300 Level

Portfolio Review of the Kepler: 23 September 2011

The Kepler Portfolio was launched near the end of the last major bear market and is therefore a relatively new portfolio.  Even so, it is fully funded with small contributions added each month.  Platinum members have access to the spreadsheet upon request.  As usual, we begin with a look at the Dashboard, the worksheet that is found inside the TLH Spreadsheet. … [Read More...]

My Portfolio Is Performing Great. Really? How Do You Know?

One comment I frequently hear when folks talk about investments is the following. "My portfolio is performing great." This statement conjures up questions I rarely ask as it tends to put the investor on the spot. Here are a few question that run through my mind. Performing great with respect to what? When was the portfolio launched? Is the portfolio return calculated by an acceptable … [Read More...]

200 Level

Retirement Mistake #4: Overestimating Portfolio Return

Historically, the U.S. Stock Market has returned about 7% annually in excess of inflation.  Is this likely to continue?  Real earnings come from dividends, dividend growth, and P/E expansion.  Projecting future returns to match the historical level, which included one of the longest bull markets from August of 1982 through March of 2000 is not likely to be duplicated in the near future.  Further, … [Read More...]

Portfolio Performance Update – 5/6/2011

In the table below readers will find portfolio performance data for 20 portfolios.  Ten are tracked using Captool software and ten are monitored and managed using the TLH Spreadsheet.  The IR column is the Information Ratio value.  SR and RR are Sortino Ratio and Retirement Ratio respectively.  The higher the ratio value the better. Keep in mind that the May dividends for HYG, … [Read More...]

400 Level

Modified Sortino Ratio and Retirement Ratio: A Review of Uncertainty Measurements

  While the Sortino ratio was an improvement versus the old methods for measuring portfolio performance against a standard, Retirement Ratio sets even a high performance bar.  The old Sortino Ratio looked like the following. S = (P - B)/DR where S = Sortino Ratio P = IRR for Portfolio B = IRR for Benchmark (we now use the customized ITA Index in our calculations) DR = Downside risk … [Read More...]

Portfolio Preparation for Euclid and Maxwell Portfolios

In preparation to activate the return-uncertainty plan for the two under performing portfolios, I set up several sell moves for each portfolio.  The first thing I did was to place trailing stop loss orders for each ETF now in the portfolio, but not part of the future plan.  Shares of VOE, VBR, VOT, VO, VTV, and VSS will be sold when the strike price is hit for each ETF. … [Read More...]