100 Level

Go With Index Funds

Flee Actively Managed Mutual Funds Let me quote extensively from Ferri's "Power of Passive Investing" book. "In every asset class, the odds of beating index funds are low, and the payout for being right is well below what a fair payout should be.  The only conclusion one can draw from this data is that active management cannot compete against passive management in any … [Read More...]

Low Risk Retirement Portfolio

Yesterday, I wrote an article for Seeking Alpha and one reader suggested a simple portfolio where equal percentages be allocated to VTI, GLD, SHY, and TLT.  Exactly what does such a portfolio look like when a Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) analysis is applied?  What does the correlation matrix look like and would such a portfolio work as one prepares for retirement?  The following … [Read More...]

300 Level

Accuracy of QPP Projections

How accurate have Quantext Portfolio Projections been over the last bear and bull markets.  Back on 12/31/2007, QPP projected an annualized return of 7.4% with a standard deviation of 10.5% for a portfolio made up of SPY, IWM, EFA, EEM, TIP, TLT, AGG, and IEF.  The exact percentages are listed in the screenshot below.  That low risk percentage looked great in December 2007, but we did not foresee … [Read More...]

Sample Portfolio For Fidelity Clients

The following portfolio represents a sample of commission free ETFs available through Fidelity.  The efficient frontier shows an asset allocation plan that is so close to an optimized portfolio that the diamond and red dots are no different on the graph. Efficient Frontier:  The indicator for the optimum portfolio lies behind the diamond dot.  The Return/Risk ratio is just a bit over 0.5, quite … [Read More...]

200 Level

Retirement Planning: Using the Kenilworth Portfolio As A Model

Two young portfolios, Gauss and Kenilworth, found here on ITA Wealth Management serve as examples for retirement planning.  For this blog post, I'll use the Kenilworth as the example since it began with a modest initial investment of $1500 followed by monthly contributions.  Platinum members have access to all the transaction details. The first move in any retirement plan is to do … [Read More...]

QPP Analysis of Actively Managed Mutual Fund Portfolio

Actively Managed Mutual Fund Portfolio The following QPP analysis is one where the portfolio is made up of actively managed mutual funds.  Long-time readers know my opinion about such funds, even though I used them throughout my teaching career.  It was a mistake.  Data was missing for JVLAX so I lumped the money market funds and the percentage (9.54%) held in JVLAX into … [Read More...]

400 Level

Examination Day Arrives for Gauss Portfolio

Regular Platinum readers are well aware that the Gauss Portfolio is one of the ITA Risk Reduction candidates.  Here we are near the end of the month and it is once more time to check on the ETF prices and their respective 195-Day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).  For those new to the ITARR model, we use StockCharts for our analysis information.  Below is a screen shot for VNQ, the … [Read More...]

Bullish Percent Indicators Update: 7 September 2012

Despite the strong market today, several sectors and one index handed the ball over to the defense.  Check the tables to see which areas of the market moved from X's in the right-hand column over to O's. … [Read More...]