100 Level

Developing a Strategic Asset Allocation Plan

The “Golden Rule of Investing” is to save as much as you can as early as you can.  That simple guideline is fundamental to any investment plan and it is critical to know why the word early is so important.  What comes second (portfolio planning) is also important, but it cannot be implemented unless one has saved money for investing. In this post, we assume the reader has a … [Read More...]

Avoiding Losses

How does one avoid major losses to the portfolio? Here are the two simple Faber - Richardson rules. … [Read More...]

300 Level

Dividend Stocks for Mosaic Investors

Mosaic investors looking for a list of potential dividend stocks to analyze will find an interesting list below.  These are stocks that have gown dividends over the last seven years. This material is not available for publication elsewhere on the Internet. … [Read More...]

Portfolioist Portfolio: Looking For Additional Diversification

Before digging into the following Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) analysis too deeply, read Geoff Considine's articles on portfolio diversification.  The first article lays out the basic logic for diversification and the second article goes into more details.  In the following analysis, I take the portfolio and run it through the QPP wringer to see what projections are in store for … [Read More...]

200 Level

Active vs. Passive Investing

ITA Wealth Management readers will recall the five decisions discussed in "The Investment Answer," a short book authored by Daniel Goldie and Gordon Murray, who died of brain cancer last month.  Those five fundamental decisions are:  1) Do-It Yourself Decision, 2) Asset Allocation Decision, 3) Diversification Decision, 4) Active versus Passive Decision, and 5) Rebalancing … [Read More...]

Hedging the Simple Seven ETF Portfolio

In the last blog entry yesterday, I proposed a simple seven ETF portfolio that generated a Return/Uncertainty ratio of 0.57.  This is very close to our baseline of something greater than 0.60.  In the following portfolio, assume one sold off the 10% holding in VTI and shifted those assets over to the ultra-short SDS ETF.  There needs to be some reason for making the shift, but for … [Read More...]

400 Level

Stress Testing the Kepler Portfolio

Next week the Kepler Portfolio is up for review.  In advance of that update I am running what I call a "stress test" assuming this to be your retirement portfolio.  Given a set of assumptions laid out in the first slide, would this portfolio last through retirement? Here we have a 40 year-old who plans to retire in 2040 at age 68.  Having already saved $200,000 and planning to put away another … [Read More...]

Point & Figure Graph Indicators

Point & Figure graphs are useful for identifying ETFs that may be a potential buy.  P & F charts are one of the metrics I use as a clue for potential buying (holding or selling) opportunities.  Below I show examples that illustrate the four basic conditions.  I am looking at the slope of the line, positive or negative, and whether or not there has been positive or negative … [Read More...]