100 Level

Portfolio From Hell

Perhaps the title is too strong, but why would any advisor or organization recommend the following array of expensive ETFs in the following configuration.  It is not unusual for me to run an analysis on a portfolio I find on the Internet.  In the analysis process, I hope to learn about a low correlated ETF or a combination of assets that show a high projected Return/Uncertainty.  … [Read More...]

Lost My Spouse – Part III

Determine your long-term cash flow. How much monthly income is required?  Will income from pension and social security meet the cash flow requirements or is additional money required from the portfolio?  For most single retired individuals, some income is required from the portfolio.  My recommendation is to pull no more than 4% annually from the portfolio.  The lower the … [Read More...]

300 Level

AAII ETF Portfolio Analysis

In the November 2011 issue of the AAII Journal is a Model ETF Portfolio.  I've been a member of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) since the mid-1970s and it is a great organization.  In each publication, I generally find one or two articles of interest.  Anytime I see a sample portfolio I like to run an analysis to see what the QPP is telling me.  … [Read More...]

Sample Portfolio Requested By Platinum Member

The following set of tickers and percentages were sent to me for analysis.  I used five years of historical data and set, as I generally do, a 7.0% return projection for the S&P 500.  I used TIP (1.0%) for the cash holding.  That choice has little impact on the final projections.    Below is the analysis data.  Instead of me writing up my observations, I'll … [Read More...]

200 Level

Portfolio Performance Data for 21 Portfolios

Portfolio Performance The data table below is incomplete as I am still working through all the dividends thrown off in the second quarter.  As I balance more portfolios with the June 30th statements I will be entering new data.  Be sure to refresh your browser when you land back on this page as new data will likely show up.  Portfolios tracked by Captool will have a 6/30/2011 date … [Read More...]

Retirement Planning Mistake #2

As a young boy my parents read to me every night and Aesop's fables were frequently on the menu.  I still recall the ant and grasshopper story where the ant was busy in the summer preparing for the winter while the grasshopper wasted time foolishly.  The picture from the fable that still lingers is that of a frozen grasshopper the following winter.  That story is fundamental to The Golden Rule of … [Read More...]

400 Level

Gauss Portfolio Review: Risk Reduction Model Update

At the end of each month the Gauss Portfolio comes up for its ITARR review.  Over the past few days I had some concerns that one or more of the eight critical ETFs would be sold out of the Gauss.  Fortunately, this did not happen as the closing prices today showed each of the ETFs priced above their 195-Day Exponential Moving Averages.  We may find a different situation when the Maxwell is … [Read More...]

Asset Allocation for ITARR Model

What does the Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) plan look like for investors using the ITA Risk Reduction (ITARR) model?  Keep in mind that you can use the general ITARR principles laid out in a prior blog post.  The following screen shots are examples for the Madison Portfolio, another candidate for the ITARR timing model.  Below is the SAA plan if one populates the portfolio using … [Read More...]