100 Level

Broad Market Outlook Based on Bullish Percent Index

Based only on gut feeling, most of us would expect rather good numbers to show up this week when we drill down into the Bullish Percent Index values for the major indexes and individual sectors.  The following two tables will not be a surprise if this is your impression of the trading week just passed.  First, the major markets. Index BPI:  All indexes showed a slight uptick in the actual … [Read More...]

Basic Information for Momentum-Optimization Model Investors

Investors wishing to set up a basic portfolio will find all the essential information in the following three screenshots.  The slides are as follows. Ranking of ETFs that will provide global coverage and include low correlated securities that can be used during bear markets. Current Buy-Hold-Sell recommendations for rebalancing assume the investor is employing the ITA Risk Reduction … [Read More...]

300 Level

Second Run of Suggested Portfolio

I mistakenly dropped two securities from a recently submitted portfolio.  Here is an update of that analysis.  Once more, I approximated the percentage of shares held in the portfolio. Efficient Frontier:  The current portfolio lies quite close to the optimized portfolio.  This suggests few changes are needed.  Nevertheless, recommendations are coming in the third screenshot. Security … [Read More...]

Screening For Top Stocks

Piotroski Stocks One of the default screens found within AAII's "Stock Investor Pro" software is the Piotroski: High F-Score.  Joseph Piotroski is an accounting professor from the University of Chicago.  As readers will see in a moment, it is a simple screen with few requirements.  However, the financial screen cuts the number of stocks down to a minimum.  … [Read More...]

200 Level

Developing a Portfolio Plan

Basic Suggestions in Portfolio Development* In the beginning stages of setting up a portfolio plan, there are a few essential decisions investors make. Here are a few hints to consider. Follow "The Golden Rule of Investing." Save as much as you can as early as you can. Develop a savings plan as there is no avoiding this step. Live below your means.  Learn … [Read More...]

Portfolio Performance: 4 February 2011

Portfolios tracked using Captool are updated as of 01/31/2011.  I am still behind bringing the TLH spreadsheets up-to-date.  As I enter that material, I will also enter the data in the table below, so refresh the browser screen to make sure you have the latest information.  In almost all cases, we gained ground on the benchmarks and improved the Return/Risk ratios since the last … [Read More...]

400 Level

Is It Time To Hedge This Market?

Hedging or shorting the market is a high risk game and I'm not about to tell anyone what to do.  Shorting is the ultimate in market timing, and most of us know the pitfalls associated with such activities.  Having waved those red warning flags, let's take a look at the data.  As I mentioned in a recent comment, investors are in a quandary when it comes to holding down portfolio volatility.  To … [Read More...]

Risk Management of Portfolio

Will your portfolio survive a three sigma event that is likely to happen over the next ten years?  Check out this link to see a sample analysis. … [Read More...]