100 Level

Are Taxes Too Low?

  A few years ago the Oregonian carried this interesting article where author David Sirota posits the low tax rate may be extending the Great Recession. I find it interesting that folks who will not find their tax rate change one percentage point will support lower taxes for the top tier of earners, thus having a negative impact on their own lives.  This is a classic example of the … [Read More...]

QPP Analysis of Faber Ivy Ten Portfolio

Yesterday I analyzed the Faber-Richardson Five portfolio found in The Ivy Portfolio.  In this post, Platinum members will find the QPP analysis of the Faber-Rickardson Ten.  I used the same five-year time frame so readers can compare the two results.  Improvements and negatives come with this expanded portfolio. While the projected return moves up to 8.2%, we give up risk as the … [Read More...]

300 Level

QPP Analysis of Another Low Risk Retirement Portfolio

The nexus for the following portfolio begins with this Seeking Alpha article and the follow-up QPP analysis of a portfolio suggested by a SA reader.  A link to the second analysis can be found here.  And now we come to the third portfolio in this series of low risk retirement plans.  This last set of ETFs was suggested by a reader of the ITA blog. The four ETFs that make up this … [Read More...]

Can Your Portfolio Survive The Next Bear Market?

The following SORDEX analysis is a variation of the material presented in the "Will I Run Out of Money?" blog.  Once more, I will use the 12-ETF Portfolio as the retirement portfolio.  As review, SORDEX is an acronym for Sequence-of-Returns Downside Exposure. Translated for T. C. PITS, it is a way to run several Monte Carlo calculations and see if you are likely to run out of … [Read More...]

200 Level

Wild Wake-Up Portfolio For The Aggressive Investor

If you are looking for simplicity with sufficient risk that one will need to employ the ITA Risk Reduction model, check out the Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) analysis of this six asset portfolio. Platinum membership available for a mere $5.00 per month.  Monitor your portfolio and quickly pay for the membership. … [Read More...]

Smartest Medium-High Risk Portfolio

With this analysis of the medium-high risk portfolio, we leap over the medium risk portfolio found at this site. The medium-high risk portfolio limits the bond/income asset class to 20%.  Remember, we began with 80% allocated to the bond asset class, moved to 60%, then 40% and now 20% or something similar to what we hold in many portfolios tracked here at ITA Wealth Management. Note the … [Read More...]

400 Level

Examination Periods of Risk Reduction Model Portfolios

Risk Reduction Examination Dates A number of readers have written to me asking if one needs to wait until the end of the month before examining where the price of the ETF or stock is compared to its Exponential Moving Average (EMA).  While the Faber-Richardson model, as explained in their "Ivy Portfolio" book, use end of the month in their research, I don't think it is all … [Read More...]

Is It Time To Buy The Commodity, DBC?

The quick answer is, NO.  Why is it too early to move back into the commodity ETF?  Let me count the ways.  First, start with the PnF graph, shown in the first slide.  Today's big drop is shown with a 6 showing up in the right-hand column.  That 6 indicates DBC had another one box drop in June which means we are adding another O in this column.  Supply for DBC … [Read More...]