100 Level

Investor’s Biggest Mistake

Without a doubt, the biggest mistake investor's make is violating "The Golden Rule of Investing."  The error is not tied to selecting poor stocks, making bad market timing decisions, or even mis-allocating assets.  Sure, those mistakes hurt portfolio performance, but it is inadequate saving early in life that is the culprit.  Failure to save early places incredible … [Read More...]

Sellwood Bridge Movement Begins

Residents of Portland are interested in the move of the old Sellwood Bridge, one of many bridges that span the Willamette River.  Here is the link to what is going on. http://www.sellwoodbridge.org/?p=construction-camera The old bridge will be moved on to new pilings and will then be used while the new bridge is under construction for the next two years.  The old bridge will eventually … [Read More...]

300 Level

Stock Picking: Why It Is So Difficult To Be Successful

Shortly before the editor to the old blog collapsed, I posted this entry and I want readers to be sure to see it. Are you tracking the performance of your portfolio and measuring the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) with respect to the IRR of an appropriate benchmark? If not, why not? Investors not engaged in this level of measurement will likely find this discussion of little use. Shall we say, … [Read More...]

Efficient Frontier for Madison Portfolio

Wednesday of next week is the review date for the Madison Portfolio.  I prefer to take an advanced peek to see where the current asset allocation plan lies on the efficient frontier and compare it with the optimized allocation position. Madison Efficient Frontier:  While it is difficult to see from the EF graph below, ETFs holding down return are:  BND, TIP, TLT, GTU, and DBC.  Holdings in … [Read More...]

200 Level

Requesting Yield To Exceed 3.0%

This morning I had an article published over on Seeking Alpha.  One reader requested what would happen if one of the constraints was to seek a yield of 3.0% or higher.  Below is the Optimization Analysis that meets this request when using the 16 ETF portfolio. The add link function does not seem to be working this morning so below is the URL to the SA … [Read More...]

Rule #8: Should I Invest In a Roth IRA or Traditional IRA?

Which type of IRA account should one use for a personal retirement account?  Is it best to use the Roth IRA or traditional IRA.  With the Roth IRA, one pays the taxes before investing and the money is available tax free in retirement.  With the traditional IRA, one deducts taxes going in and pays taxes when the money is withdrawn.  You may find this surprising, but it makes no difference which you … [Read More...]

400 Level

SORDEX Ratio: Will I Run Out of Money?

Stress Testing the 12-ETF Portfolio What in the world is the Moshe Milevsky SORDEX Ratio? SORDEX is an acronym for Sequence-of-Returns Downside Exposure. Translated for T. C. PITS or The Common Person In The Street, it is a way to run several Monte Carlo calculations and see if you are likely to run out of money in retirement. If that is confusing, let me try to explain in great detail … [Read More...]

Why Pay Any Attention to the Bullish Percent Indicator?

Are there logical reasons to support paying attention to the Bullish Percent Indicator?  Simply put, the Bullish Percent Indicator (BPI) draws special attention when the market or market sectors are overbought or oversold.  When the BPI exceeds the 70 percent level, it is time to be wary of the market.  Demand is high and supply is low.  Everyone that wants in the market and … [Read More...]