100 Level

Madison Review: 5 June 2013

Since the last update a few shares of VNQ were sold out of the Madison portfolio.  Limit orders are in place to add to VTI as recommended by the momentum-optimizer spreadsheet.  Below is the efficient frontier graph and the current Dashboard for the Madison. Efficient Frontier:  The efficient frontier graph provides a quick look at how well the current portfolio is positioned with respect to an … [Read More...]

Solving Investment Problem #4: Fear of losing money.

The fear of losing money once it is invested in the stock market is quite natural.  Investing in the market from early 2000 through early 2009 was a particularly volatile period and not one to inspire investor confidence.  The alternatives to building adequate savings for retirement are limited.  Banks are paying zero to very little interest.  CDs are also generating low … [Read More...]

300 Level

Momentum-Optimization Model (MOM) YouTube Presentations

Platinum members using the Momentum-Optimization Model (MOM) spreadsheet will find two help sessions at this address. http://www.youtube.com/user/Physlab Look for Momentum-Optimization and Momentum-Optimization Part 2.  Keep in mind that the resolution is not the greatest when viewing material on YouTube.  At least the Camtasia recordings are not as sharp as I prefer. Lowell   … [Read More...]

Seasonal Timing Strategy

As we approach the end of the month, review this blog entry I posted back on September 2nd.  Also run a search for Seasonal Timing Strategy to find more blog entries on this subject. … [Read More...]

200 Level

Kepler Portfolio Review: 24 October 2011

Once more it is time to update the Kepler Portfolio.  Platinum members can see the Dashboard worksheet showing the asset allocation plan in the following screen shot. Note that both the Sortino and Retirement ratios are slightly negative.  The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for the Kepler is trailing the VTSMX benchmark by 0.3%.  We should be able to make that up if and when the … [Read More...]

Advantages to Mosaic Investing

It comes as no surprise to long standing Platinum members that most equity ETFs are highly correlated.  The basic ones we use to populate many of our portfolios show correlations of 80% or higher when analyzed using the Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) software.  To reduce portfolio volatility and increase the Diversification Metric (DM) we have several choices.  One common approach … [Read More...]

400 Level

International ETFs and The Delta Factor

This morning I located the following article, Why I Am Buying The Pain In Spain, on Seeking Alpha, one of the top blog sites on the Internet.  In the article, author Cam Hui states his belief in mean-reversion, the exact philosophy that is the foundation of my "Delta Factor" calculations.  Using Hui's article as a backdrop, I decided to run the Delta Factor numbers on the … [Read More...]

Containing Portfolio Risk

It will be a close call for many asset classes held in the Madison Portfolio when it comes up for examination on Wednesday of this week.  Developed international markets (VEU) is just one example of the narrow gap between the price of the ETF and its 195-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).  While most of the asset classes have a cushion before a sell signal is given, several of the … [Read More...]