100 Level

Eight Asset Porfolio

Photograph: When I first walked Devastation Trail in late 1961 or early 1962, there was no vegetation to be seen as it was soon after the eruption. Consider the following portfolio that holds eight assets including cash.  In this analysis, I am using the 20-year treasury ETF, TLT, to represent cash, a substitution that gives the portfolio a slight boost over current money market rates.  … [Read More...]

Government Shutdown: What Should Investors Do?

There are a significant number of congressional members, particularly within the U.S. House of Representatives, that seem Hades bent on closing down the government over the coming budget crisis.  It matters little that many of these same members voted numerous times to raise the debt limit under the Bush Administration.  Regardless of the politics, what defensive positions are available to … [Read More...]

300 Level

Momentum-Optimization Portfolio Construction

Constructing a portfolio through the use of a Momentum-Optimization Model (MOM) is infinitely easier than it was just a few years ago.  For one, we have many commission free ETFs to use so that trading costs do not consume all returns.  Computing power is the big difference as readers will see in a few moments.  If you Bing or Google "ETF Momentum Investing" you will find many references to … [Read More...]

Einstein Portfolio Review

Since the last update 33 days ago, shares of VWO, EMB, DBC, and GTU were sold and shares of VOE and VTI were purchased.  The Hoadley Optimizer recommended eliminating EMB, DBC, and GTU and we still need more shares of VOE in the portfolio. Einstein Dashboard:  Due to some action this past month, this Dashboard looks a little bloody.  I'll be readjusting the Strategic Asset Allocation plan to … [Read More...]

200 Level

Portfolio Stress Test: Part 2

Stress Testing the Curie Portfolio Go back and review Stress Test Part 1 to understand the original information used when applying a three standard deviation loss for the Curie Portfolio.  As you will recall, the owner of the Curie Portfolio plans to withdrawal, using today's rates, $40,000 from a $500,000 portfolio.  Due to the addition of new money, the portfolio should be closer … [Read More...]

Are You Ready for Retirement? Most Americans Are Not Prepared

The Encore section of the January 14 Wall Street Journal points out that many people are behind on their preparations for retirement. 67% of workers say they are behind schedule in planning and saving for retirement.  These folks violated The Golden Rule of Investing. One 58% of works say they or their spouse are currently saving for later life.  Perhaps the middle class has fallen so far … [Read More...]

400 Level

Bullish Percent Indicators Update: 8/31/2012

As Platinum members can see from the data tables below, many of the major indexes and market sectors are close or currently positioned in the overbought zone.  While the markets may continue holding such lofty values for many weeks, eventually we will see some sort of correction and better buying opportunities. … [Read More...]

Asset Allocation for ITARR Model

What does the Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) plan look like for investors using the ITA Risk Reduction (ITARR) model?  Keep in mind that you can use the general ITARR principles laid out in a prior blog post.  The following screen shots are examples for the Madison Portfolio, another candidate for the ITARR timing model.  Below is the SAA plan if one populates the portfolio using … [Read More...]