100 Level

Passive and Index Investing

Passive or Index Investing Yesterday I defined active investing and today I am writing about Passive Investing and Index Investing. Since these terms are used interchangeably, I want to discuss both as there are slight differences.  What I don't know is if the broad investing community makes any distinction between passive and index investing. Here is how I view the two investing … [Read More...]

Benchmarking a Portfolio: Essential to Portfolio Management

Waterford, Virginia ITA Wealth Management readers know I am passionate about portfolio benchmarking and portfolio risk analysis.  To my knowledge, there is no better software program for the small investor than the TLH Spreadsheet, provided to all Platinum members.  We use two primary benchmarks in this spreadsheet, although four are available.  One is Vanguard's Total Stock … [Read More...]

300 Level

Return and Risk Relationship

What is the relationship between return of a portfolio and the associated risk involved? Quoting from an “Active vs. Passive” paper I found in my files. “High potential returns always involve high potential risks. There are no low-risk/high-return investments. Investment risk comes in many forms but, to most investors, risk means the potential for losing investment capital and … [Read More...]

Is It Worth 50 Basis Points? Part II

Yesterday, I posted a conservative portfolio built around index funds only available through qualified advisors.  The portfolio projections were based on the last five years of data.  The following screen shot presents future projections of the same portfolio using the last four years of data.  As readers will see, nothing really changes in the way of projections.  What does … [Read More...]

200 Level

Optimizing a Basic Portfolio: 3 and 5 Year Analysis

The sample portfolio shown below consists of 16 ETFs that cover all major markets found in the eleven portfolios tracked here at ITA Wealth Management.  VTI covers all of the "Big Nine" asset classes.  We add VIG for added dividends and IWN for any possible push toward small-cap value, or where Fama and French find added alpha. VEU is our developed international market and VWO is the ETF used … [Read More...]

Portfolio Construction Using David Swensen Percentage Guidelines

David Swensen writes in his "Unconventional Success" book, "Construction of a financial-asset portfolio involves full measures of science and art.  The science encompasses the application of basic investment principles to the problem of combining core asset classes in an efficient, cost-effective manner.  The art concerns the use of common-sense judgment in the challenge … [Read More...]

400 Level

Examining Equity Markets Using the “Delta Factor”

Read this article as it supports the findings of the "Delta Factor" probability projections shown below.  To learn more about the Gordon Equation, search that term on this blog. Which equity ETFs have the greatest probability of doing well over the next six to twelve months?  The following analysis looks at both a three- and five-year history of a variety of equity ETFs.  … [Read More...]

Delta Factor: Three-Year Analysis Projects Grim Market Ahead

Yesterday I uploaded a "Delta Factor" data table using four years of historical data.  Today I am posting another table.  I added a few ETFs, but the main difference is that I am using three instead of four years of historical data.  Note the major difference in the projections for the future.  All the red is due to the analysis beginning with the market in steep … [Read More...]