100 Level

Avoiding Losses

How does one avoid major losses to the portfolio? Here are the two simple Faber - Richardson rules. … [Read More...]

Top 12 Investment Books: A Revised List

Are you looking for high quality investment books?  If so, I have a new list of twelve (12) books to read.  Platinum members are familiar with many of these books as they show up on several lists by going to All Categories and clicking on Books. It is always difficult to hone down the list to as few as 12 books.  There are at least three more I could have easily listed. Other … [Read More...]

300 Level

Avoid Losses

There is nothing quite so painful to the long-term investor as watching their portfolio experience a long and precipitous decline. Most of us experienced this in 2000 through 2002 and again in 2008 and early 2009. Diversification did not help all that much in the recent severe bear market. Asset allocation, no matter how carefully designed, did not perform as we expected. All asset classes seemed … [Read More...]

Mosaic Portfolio Lookback – June 30, 2008

June 30 of 2008 was a period when the market was in a deep funk, and sinking.  In the following analysis we put the Mosaic Portfolio in that situation and analyze it, now knowing what happened.  What were the signals at that time?  Since the end of the first quarter, the projected return dropped slightly and the Return/Uncertainty ratio declined.  The diversification percentage … [Read More...]

200 Level

Portfolio Performance Data: 4 March 2011

Photograph: Harley at the cabin in Central Oregon Platinum members will find the performance data below.  This is the first complete update since the February statements became available.  In almost every situation, the portfolios gained ground on the VTSMX index.  Quite a few showed improvement in the Sortino and Retirement Ratios, possibly the key measurement. Platinum … [Read More...]

Capital Preservation Portfolio

This portfolio is not quite as conservative as the Ultra Capital Preservation asset mix.  Fixed income was decreased by 11% points and those assets were shifted toward equities. … [Read More...]

400 Level

When To Buy Back ETFs: Replacing ITARR Sold Positions

When is it time to buy back those ETF positions that were sold when the price of the ETF moved from above to below the 195-Day EMA?  A cogent question came up as a comment this morning.  Here is a paraphrase of the inquiry.  "VEU, VWO, DBC, etc. are all well under their respective RSI 30% indicator.  Even if one is following the ITA Risk Reduction model, does it not make … [Read More...]

“Delta Factor” Projections For Sector ETFs

While I do not build portfolios around sectors of the stock market, it is important to review sectors ETFs as it provides another view of market conditions.  We examine the Bullish Percent Index information as shown in this article, to see where the market as been and is it over bought or under sold.  When the BPI values are above the 70% line, as most are today, we argue the market is too high to … [Read More...]