100 Level

Portfolio Uncertainty: Pay Close Attention

"If the physical world is so uncertain, so difficult to know precisely, then how much more uncertain and unknowable must be the world of money?  Finance is a black box covered by a veil." - Benoit Mandelbrot It almost goes with out saying - investors pay more attention to return than they do to risk or portfolio volatility.  At least this is the case until a bear market strikes as it did in … [Read More...]

Sixteen Asset Classes: The Basic Portfolio

More Asset Classes Are Not Enough TLH Spreadsheet users are familiar with the sixteen (cash is excluded) asset classes used with most of the larger ITA Wealth Management portfolios.  Below is what I call the Basic Portfolio as standard ETFs are used to populate the different asset classes. Despite all the asset classes being populated with nearly equal percentages, there is something … [Read More...]

300 Level

“Creme List” for 20 May 2011

Two major changes show up in the "Creme List" this week.  One is related to the stock that jumped into the number one position and the other is the addition of a new company that never made the list. … [Read More...]

Newton Portfolio Update: 15 May 2012

How well is the Newton Portfolio performing?  Below are screen shots of the Dashboard and Portfolio Performance data.  Even though the Newton is not part of the ITA Risk Reduction experiment, I did lighten up on both international and emerging markets.  The follow table reflects asset classes where I sold some holdings in VEU, VWO, and DBC.  So far those moves helped the … [Read More...]

200 Level

What Does It Take To Retire?

What does it take in savings to live during retirement? Here is data readers may find of interest as they think about portfolio development and eventual retirement. A couple nearing retirement anticipate they will need $80,000 after taxes per year to live during their first year without employment. Between them they will receive a pension of $2,000 per month or $24,000 per year. These are all … [Read More...]

Portfolio Performance – 22 October 2010

The following data table exhibits the latest portfolio performance information through October 22. Two critical measurements are found in the last two columns, the Sortino Ratio (SR) and the Retirement Ratio (RR). Of the ten portfolios tracked using the TLH spreadsheet, most showed a slight decline in the SR and RR values since last posted. Other data to pay attention to is the difference between … [Read More...]

400 Level

Bonds: Are Any Worth Buying Based on “Delta Factor” Projections?

Bond Projections Look Dim Periodically a "Delta Factor" projection is posted for equities and bonds.  Today I am updating the projections for a wide array of bond ETFs and the outlook is not strong as one can see from the table below. … [Read More...]

When To Buy Back ETFs: Replacing ITARR Sold Positions

When is it time to buy back those ETF positions that were sold when the price of the ETF moved from above to below the 195-Day EMA?  A cogent question came up as a comment this morning.  Here is a paraphrase of the inquiry.  "VEU, VWO, DBC, etc. are all well under their respective RSI 30% indicator.  Even if one is following the ITA Risk Reduction model, does it not make … [Read More...]