100 Level

Stock Market Value vs. GNP

Are stocks priced fairly? Check out Warren Buffett's stock market value vs. GNP at this site. Once on the site, click on this link to see the graph. While stocks are not overly cheap, the market, according to this theory is priced about where it was back in 1971. … [Read More...]

New Normal Portfolio

              The New Normal (NN) is a view that developed with the bear market that has been articulated especially by Bill Gross and Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO.  In summer of 2009 this blog pointed us to an article by Geoff Considine of QPP about some suggested asset allocations that could successfully navigate the NN.  … [Read More...]

300 Level

Bohr Portfolio Update

If you are looking for a portfolio that needs attention, look no further than the Dashboard of the Bohr Portfolio as presented below.  Asset classes coded with the purplish color are all under target while the red are above target.  To rectify these issues and bring the portfolio back into balance, I have a number of limit orders in place.  As the market continues to rise, the … [Read More...]

Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio

Risk-Parity Look at Permanent Portfolio Much is written about Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio, particularly since it held up well during the "Black Swan" markets of the early 21st century.  Below is a look at the equal allocation plan as advocated by Browne, and a Risk-Parity examination of the same four asset classes.  Both the equal allocation and Risk-Parity … [Read More...]

200 Level

Optimization Correction For 12 ETF Portfolio

Here are the following assumptions I used to create the portfolio shown below.  1)  The S&P 500 is assumed to grow at 7% per year.  This percentage is adjusted by setting the Delta Return to -3.3% inside the QPP software.  2) I used five years of data running from 2/6/2008 through 2/6/2013.  3) The Solver Parameters are listed below. The following material is not available for publication … [Read More...]

Kenilworth Portfolio Review: 11 November 2011

Portfolio review time is here again for the Kenilworth.  As usual, we first examine the Dashboard to see which asset classes need attention and why.  Below is the worksheet extracted from the TLH Spreadsheet. … [Read More...]

400 Level

Ranking Critical ETFs

Now that I have the capability to work with more than 20 ETFs within the ranking worksheet, I made a list of the critical securities one might use to construct a portfolio.  There are three sector ETFs in this group and a special ranking of sector instruments will be conducted to determine which are part of this larger grouping. While the ranking is important, also pay attention to the … [Read More...]

Bullish Percent Indicators: 12 October 2012

Major Indexes:  The single major change this week is the move out of the overbought zone for the NYSE BPI.  That is the column that somehow was changed to 68.  That should read, NYSE.  Of less importance is the transportation average moving from defense to offense.  Nevertheless, that move is positive.   Sectors:  There were no significant changes in the 10 … [Read More...]