100 Level

Retirement Mistake #4: Overestimating Portfolio Return

Historically, the U.S. Stock Market has returned about 7% annually in excess of inflation.  Is this likely to continue?  Real earnings come from dividends, dividend growth, and P/E expansion.  Projecting future returns to match the historical level, which included one of the longest bull markets from August of 1982 through March of 2000 is not likely to be duplicated in the near future.  Further, … [Read More...]

Save Early

Photograph: Florence, Italy There is no better way to prepare for retirement than to save frequently and early.  The operative word is "early."  The Golden Rule of Investing is to "Save as Much as You Can as Early as You Can." William Bernstein, in his book, "Investor's Manifesto" puts it in harsh terms. "Each dollar you do not save at 25 will … [Read More...]

300 Level

5 ETF Bond, REIT, & Gold Portfolio

Is it possible to build a portfolio that does not include U.S. stocks or international equities?  The following portfolio was suggested by a reader and it originates from a well-known author.  Here are the five ETFs that make up this conservative portfolio. 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY) Intermediate Bond ETF (BIV) Emerging Market Bonds (EMB) Real Estate (VNQ Gold … [Read More...]

Rebalancing: How Important?

Below are rebalancing results that Bob Warasila recently updated.  As background for this study, we started with eight asset classes and invested $10,000 in each for a total of $80,000 for the portfolio.  The asset classes consisted of the "Big Six," REITs, and International Markets.  In 1989 I did not have easy access to data on commodities, international real estate, … [Read More...]

200 Level

Portfolio Performance Update

This week ended on a strong note with the broad market VTI up over 2% on the day.  However, that move was insufficient to pull the Maxwell and Euclid portfolios into positive territory. Portfolios available to Platinum members continue to do well when measured against the VTSMX benchmark. Only the Kenilworth is lagging and those numbers are exaggerated due to the short period this … [Read More...]

Retirement Planning: A Conservative Approach

When planning for retirement, I always prepare with a conservative outlook in mind.  Even so, one will likely experience surprises, some positive and some negative.  The following portfolio is laid out with a 45 year-old in mind.  The investment vehicles are definitely tilted toward a dividend approach as I think that is where most of the portfolio return will come from over the … [Read More...]

400 Level

U.S. Equities Is The Place To Be Invested

It has been many weeks since I ran a screen on international markets, particularly individual countries.  I have approximately 40 countries on my list and since it takes the Hoadley optimizer a long time to run such a large number of securities I broke them up into two groups.  In both runs, VTI ranks at the very top.  Here is an example. … [Read More...]

Where Are The Best International Opportunities?

If you are not satisfied with broad international ETFs such as VEU, VEA, VWO, and EFA, but want to search for individual countries, the following Delta Factor analysis and projections might be of interest.  In the following QPP analysis I show the Delta Factor projections for a broad range of countries followed by several other ways to look at some of the specific countries that are showing … [Read More...]