100 Level

Standard & Poor’s Indices vs. Active Funds

Readers who need to be convinced that actively managed mutual funds is not a good idea only need to take time to read and study this paper.  This is a follow up to my last post.   … [Read More...]

Asset Allocation: Moderate Portfolio

Analysis of a Moderate Portfolio Changing the asset allocation from growth to moderate requires a shift in the percentages allocated to the six basic asset classes. In the following portfolio we lower the percentage allocated to the broad U.S. equities market, REITs, international, and emerging markets. The percentage allocated to bonds increases significantly. Were I not sticking with the … [Read More...]

300 Level

Bohr Portfolio Update: 21 May 2012

Due to missing a recent purchase of PowerShares Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt (PCY), the performance of the Bohr Portfolio is actually a bit higher than reported in the recent Portfolio Performance post.  I call the Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt an International Bond asset class.  The purchase was only five shares, or a minor investment just to set up a new asset class for this … [Read More...]

Bohr QPP Projections

Using current ETF percentages held in the Bohr Portfolio, what are the Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) projections indicating for the next several months?  The S&P 500 is assumed to grow at 7.0% over the next year.  In the prior blog post, I showed the Efficient Frontier graph, and it presents a somewhat defensive portfolio.  This QPP projection shows much the same expectation going … [Read More...]

200 Level

Response to “The Trend is Your Fickle Friend” Article

If you have been reading the Comments on this blog you saw the reference to the Hussman Funds article, "The Trend is Your Fickle Friend."  After reading the article I concluded that my response would be too long for another comment, so I decided to give attention to the article with a full blog post. In the early part of Hussman's article, he points out the problems associated … [Read More...]

Portfolio Performance Update

Photograph: Fountain on the waterfront in Charleston, SC It is all about performance and risk Every portfolio tracked using the TLH spreadsheet gained ground on the VTSMX benchmark and nearly all improved with respect to the ITA Index benchmark.  These improvements also brought higher values for both the Sortino Ratio (SR) and the Retirement Ratio (RR).  It is unusual to have such a … [Read More...]

400 Level

IVY-2: Ten ETF Portfolio

The second portfolio recommended by Faber and Richardson contains ten ETFs.  There are a few new asset classes added such as small-cap, emerging markets, and foreign or international REITs.  Are we able to improve the Return/Risk ratio and elevate the Diversification Metric with these additions?  Check the analysis below for the answer. A "seat of the pants" analysis … [Read More...]

Retirement Planning: Stress Testing a Simple 5 ETF Portfolio

As mentioned in a recent post, stress testing the portfolio is one useful method of checking to see if there will be sufficient funds available to comfortably retire.  In this QPP analysis of a simple five ETF portfolio we will make some initial assumptions that will vary from investor to investor. Assume this investor is 50 and plans to retire at age 67.  The current portfolio is … [Read More...]