100 Level

Five Essential Investment Decisions

Critical Investment Decisions 1.  Save Follow "The Golden Rule of Investing."  Save as much as you can as early as you can.  If you are not saving, why are you reading this blog?  Investing ideas only follow after one has developed the discipline of saving a percentage of each paycheck. 2.  Education Educate yourself by reading several of the Top Ten Investment Books listed on this … [Read More...]

Respighi’s “Pines of Rome”

While I recommended Ottorino Respighi's "Pines of Rome" back on August 29, 2010, it did not receive much attention at that time as it was a secondary selection.  This week I am making it my first selection, and as I wrote back in 2010, this is a must for any classical collection.  Here is one "Amazon" review that should further spark your interest in this piece of music. "Ever since Toscanini's … [Read More...]

300 Level

Variation of “New Normal” Portfolio

We are always searching for a better portfolio asset allocation based on five criteria.  Projected return Projected uncertainty or volatility Ratio of Return/Uncertainty Diversification Metric Portfolio Autocorrelation Platinum membership is available for $5.00 per month. View "New Normal" portfolio. … [Read More...]

Momentum-Optimization Analysis of Equity Oriented Portfolio

Momentum-Optimization Analysis In the prior blog post I analyzed a sample portfolio using Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP).  In this analysis I will use the momentum-optimizer spreadsheet to come up with the efficient frontier, a ranking of the securities, and the "decision maker," a Buy-Hold-Sell recommendation table.  We first take a look at the efficient frontier graph to see where the current … [Read More...]

200 Level

QPP Analysis of Actively Managed Mutual Fund Portfolio

Actively Managed Mutual Fund Portfolio The following QPP analysis is one where the portfolio is made up of actively managed mutual funds.  Long-time readers know my opinion about such funds, even though I used them throughout my teaching career.  It was a mistake.  Data was missing for JVLAX so I lumped the money market funds and the percentage (9.54%) held in JVLAX into … [Read More...]

Asset Allocation: How Important?

  Exactly how important is the portfolio policy on portfolio return and how is it measured? Research papers from the late 1980s through the early 2000s tell us it is very important. That is, anywhere from 90% to 100% of the return of the portfolio is tied to portfolio policy.  Let me quickly insert that several studies are frequently misinterpreted.  While the papers focus on … [Read More...]

400 Level

Preparing For Kepler Review

In a few days the Kepler Portfolio comes up for review, so here is the preparation material.  I'll walk readers through the Efficient Frontier, Ranking, and Buy-Hold-Sell (BHS) recommendations. Efficient Frontier:  The Kepler requires some adjustments before the current allocation is fully optimized.  What to do is shown in a later screenshot.  Holdings such as TIP are not improving the … [Read More...]

All Bullish Percent Indicators Are Under Control of the Defense

This week not one Bullish Percent Index managed to move or remain in the hands of the offensive team.  The markets, be they broad or sector, succumbed to the downward trend and turned negative.  In several cases the numerical value of PnF graphs moved the dial out of the over-bought range.  This is something we have been anticipating for several weeks. This information is not available for … [Read More...]