100 Level

The Trend is Our Friend: Risk Parity, Momentum and Trend Following

A few days ago I ran into an article Platinum members may find interesting.  There are some possible underlying benefits to applying the "Delta Factor" and the Bullish Percent Indicator.  You will need to download this article from Mebane Faber's site as I did not find it available as a stand along article.  I'll provide the best path I could find. … [Read More...]

Who Is Responsible For Your Retirement?

With pension plans on the decline, corporations squeezing employees, and unions under attack, individuals will need to take more responsibility for their own retirement programs.  Those are the hard facts.  At one time an individual or a small group of people within a corporation managed the pension plan for a large number of employees.  The employee had few retirement planning … [Read More...]

300 Level

Kepler Portfolio Update: 10 July 2012

Kepler Portfolio Review for July The Kepler Portfolio review time is here and little action other than some cash flowing in and out of the portfolio took place over the last 30 days.  A number of dividends from BND, TLT, EMB, and TIP were recorded.  Although the Kepler is not one of the primary ITA Risk Reduction model portfolios, I am applying some of the timing techniques to various … [Read More...]

ITA Ratio Introduced

As I wrote in an earlier comment, I am moving from the Sortino ratio over to what I call the ITA ratio.  Let me go into detail as to why I am making the change.  I will explain how the new ITA ratio is calculated and how it will be programmed into later versions of the TLH spreadsheets.  It is not going to be all that difficult to make the change so stick with me. Before I launch … [Read More...]

200 Level

Smartest Portfolio You’ll Ever Own?

Below is a portfolio I extracted from Daniel Solin's recent book, "The Smartest Portfolio You'll Ever Own."  Before I run a QPP analysis on one of the suggest portfolios, let me point out that the BWZ ETF did not have a three-year record.  As a result, the following analysis runs for only 31 months.  Under current market conditions, my preference is to use 48 … [Read More...]

Portfolio Construction the ITA Way

David Swensen writes in his "Unconventional Success" book, "Construction of a financial-asset portfolio involves full measures of science and art.  The science encompasses the application of basic investment principles to the problem of combining core asset classes in an efficient, cost-effective manner.  The art concerns the use of common-sense judgment in the challenge of incorporating … [Read More...]

400 Level

Portfolio Risk: How To Manage It With Care

Managing Portfolio Risk* Risk is one of the least understood concepts when it comes to investing, so it is time we insert some discussions into the mix of portfolio construction. I am going to quote Mark Hebner and link to his outstanding web site frequently as he does an excellent job of describing and defining risk. Let us first begin with a definition of Standard Deviation (SD) as it is … [Read More...]

Momentum-Optimization Analysis of Equity Oriented Portfolio

Momentum-Optimization Analysis In the prior blog post I analyzed a sample portfolio using Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP).  In this analysis I will use the momentum-optimizer spreadsheet to come up with the efficient frontier, a ranking of the securities, and the "decision maker," a Buy-Hold-Sell recommendation table.  We first take a look at the efficient frontier graph to see where the current … [Read More...]