100 Level

Market Timing or Portfolio Hedge

One of the strongest proponents for staying in the market and avoiding market timing is Charles D. Ellis.  In his book, "Winning the Loser's Game" he writes, "The long, sad history of market timing is clear: Virtually nobody gets it right even half the time. And the cost of getting it wrong wipes out the occasional gain of getting it right. So the average investor's … [Read More...]

AAII Journal: November Issue

As a lifetime member of the American Association of Individual Investors, I receive their journal each month. The November issue was of particular interest as it included 20 pages of the best financial web sites on the Internet. In addition to all those investment links this issue carried their ETF portfolio of which I analyze in a post tomorrow. There is also an article, "Is the Stock … [Read More...]

300 Level

ITARR Style Portfolios: What Next?

Now that we are near the end of the month, what are the plans for the Maxwell, Euclid, and Madison portfolios?  A price check this morning show all seven basic ETFs are well under their 195-Day EMAs.  Should this continue until November 30th, and I expect that to be the case, we will not make any changes in these three portfolios even though we do hold partial positions in VTI, IWN, IGE, … [Read More...]

Kepler Portfolio Update

Below is the Dashboard or asset allocation plan for the Kepler Portfolio.  Readers will note a number of asset classes are either above target (bright red) or below target (purple).  I've made some shifts in the Strategic Asset Allocation and those shifts are the primary reasons this portfolio needs so much attention.  In a number of cases, limit orders are in place to purchase … [Read More...]

200 Level

SORDEX Ratio Blog Post Reworked

I just reworked an older SORDEX blog post.  The reason I did not bring this post forward is that there are links when one searches for this information on the Internet and I don't want to break those links. I will likely rework this concept using the latest projected portfolio volatility as the numbers don't look quite so bad with the lower standard deviation projections. … [Read More...]

Portfolio for 25-Year Old: The Positives and Negatives

As a followup to William Bernstein's e-book, "The Ages of the Investor," what might a portfolio look like for a 25-year old investor?  The following portfolio is built around 15 ETFs that cover the U.S. Equities market, developed international markets, commodities, emerging markets, both domestic and international REITs, sovereign debt, bonds, and treasuries.  In other words, we are diversifying … [Read More...]

400 Level

Risk

Portfolio Risk Risk is a messy word as it carries so many different meanings in the investing world. Here are at least three meanings of the term. 1. Committee members giving oversight to an endowment fund may define risk as follows. Will the endowment fund grow sufficiently to best inflation, grow a little, and still be able to throw off 5% to find their institution? That is asking a lot of a … [Read More...]

Hierarchy of Buy and Sell Decisions

Burlington Northern operating in the wide open spaces of the Northwest. Hierarchy of buy and sell decision is critical, particularly when the market is running at current high levels.  Here are some guidelines I use when it comes to rebalancing the portfolio or making buy, hold, and sell decisions. The following information is not available for publication elsewhere on the Internet. … [Read More...]