100 Level

Index Investing Slow To Catch On

Is there a logical reason why 60% of institutions and 85% of individual investors avoiding index investing? The reasons below come from an article, "The Best Investment Advice You'll Never Get." "A big reason, according to Geddes, is that putting investors into index funds is simply not in the interest of the industry that sells securities. “They just won’t accept … [Read More...]

Winter Solstice Arrives On Pacific Coast

Winter Solstice The Winter Solstice occurs at 3:12 AM PST. "Sol" refers to the Sun and "stice" means to stand still. Each day before the Winter Solstice the Sun appears a little lower in the sky at noon. The Sun’s altitude at Noon on the Winter Solstice, as seen from the Portland area, is approximately 21 degrees above the southern horizon.  After the Winter Solstice the Sun appears a little … [Read More...]

300 Level

New Normal Portfolio Revisited

Nearly two years ago, the New Normal Portfolio was launched by one of the ITA clients.  If you have been reading the comments, you know this is a defensive oriented portfolio.  Below is the latest QPP data on the NN.  The projected Return/Uncertainty (or Risk) is 0.57.  As I recall, when this portfolio was established two years ago, the ratio was well above 0.60.  The … [Read More...]

Positioning the Maxwell, Euclid, and Madison

In preparation to launch the ITA Risk Reduction model for the Maxwell, Euclid, Madison, and possibly one or two more portfolios, the basic asset allocation is laid out below.  SDS is shown only as a possibility in unusual circumstances.  The percentages as shown apply only when the ETF price lies above its 195-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).  Such is not the case right now as … [Read More...]

200 Level

Retirement Ratio: Portfolio Performance and Uncertainty Measurement

What is the Retirement Ratio (RR)?  I never heard of such a ratio, at least as it is defined below.  Before going into an explanation, let me digress and address similar ratios.  Portfolio performance measurements that combine both return and risk are readily available to investors.  The Sharpe ratio is perhaps the best known "efficiency ratio" where it measures the … [Read More...]

Lottery Foolishness

Who plays the lottery?  A recent news release revealed that lottery players earning $13,000 or fewer dollars per year, were spending 9% of their wages on lottery tickets. Yes - nine (9%) percent. Then I ran into this report when I was searching for more information on who plays the lotteries. Readers of this blog know that one does not fund a retirement plan by playing the lottery. What we … [Read More...]

400 Level

Bullish Percent Indexes: 16 August 2013

As one might expect, general decline showed up in both the Bullish Percent Indexes and sector BPI data.  There was one major exception among the sectors and I will get to that later.  We first examine the major indexes and then sectors of the market. … [Read More...]

Preparing For Kepler Review

In a few days the Kepler Portfolio comes up for review, so here is the preparation material.  I'll walk readers through the Efficient Frontier, Ranking, and Buy-Hold-Sell (BHS) recommendations. Efficient Frontier:  The Kepler requires some adjustments before the current allocation is fully optimized.  What to do is shown in a later screenshot.  Holdings such as TIP are not improving the … [Read More...]