100 Level

If I Were Starting A New Portfolio Today

What would a portfolio look like if I were starting from scratch today?  Here are a few basic principles to consider before making the initial Strategic Asset Allocation decision. Begin by using index funds or index ETFs.  My preference, as Platinum members well know, is to use "non-managed" index ETFs.  Yes, someone needs to make a decision what goes into the ETF, but for practical purposes … [Read More...]

ITA Risk Reduction Followers

Early this morning I ran through the primary ETFs used to populate most portfolios and only commodities and gold are in the doghouse.  That is, DBC and GTU are currently priced below their 195-Day Exponential Moving average.  To see what this looks like, here is the link for DBC, our primary commodity holding. Portfolios managed using the ITARR model are out of gold and commodities.  I may hold … [Read More...]

300 Level

Mosaic Portfolio Lookback – September 30, 2008

Bear Market Analysis of 2008 Investors with a memory of 2008 know that desperation was in everyone's mind.  How far could the market decline and when would it stop?  Continuing with our look-back theme, what information can we glean from the QPP analysis and what were the Delta Index signals? There is nothing I can see in the following data that throws up any warning flags and we … [Read More...]

Momentum-Optimization Analysis of Aggressive Portfolio

This blog post is a follow-up analysis of the QPP analysis published less than two hours ago.  What I've done is to take the same set of ETFs, but this time I optimized the portfolio to come up with a different strategic asset allocation plan. Efficient Frontier:  The current portfolio (diamond dot) lands smack on top of the optimized portfolio or so close one can barely (blue dot) distinguish … [Read More...]

200 Level

Portfolio Performance Data

Portfolio Performance Data Table Below is the weekly update for portfolio performance. If you are comparing SR and RR values from past weeks, there are some major shifts in the values as I corrected a bug in the semi-variance calculation. Some of those corrections took place last week, other changes were made this week. I still need to do some close "desk checking" as there are still … [Read More...]

QPP Analysis of Faber Ivy Ten Portfolio

Yesterday I analyzed the Faber-Richardson Five portfolio found in The Ivy Portfolio.  In this post, Platinum members will find the QPP analysis of the Faber-Rickardson Ten.  I used the same five-year time frame so readers can compare the two results.  Improvements and negatives come with this expanded portfolio. While the projected return moves up to 8.2%, we give up risk as the … [Read More...]

400 Level

Bullish Percent Indicators: 8 February 2013

Platinum members will note the market strengthened this past week.  How long can this continue?  I have no answer to that question.  Check out both index and sector screenshots.  There is one anomaly Staples) I will attempt to explain. … [Read More...]

Bullish Percent Indicators Show Markets Continue to Weaken

Bullish Percent Indicators (BPI) provide us with a broad look at large index and sector movements for the U.S. Equities market.  While I do not use either the index or sector tables as trading tools, I do watch them for general market trends and as guides to determing when the market is over bought or over sold.  Right now the market is over bought and weakening. Index BPI:  One significant … [Read More...]