100 Level

The Condition of Bonds Using Delta Factor

What is the current condition of bond ETFs and should they be part of the portfolio?  To examine this question one method of analysis is to apply the Delta Factor.  When I run a reversion-to-the-mean analysis on bonds, I use AGG as the reference or standard.  For equity ETFs I use the VTSMX total stock index fund.  In the following table each bond ETF is compared with the … [Read More...]

“Delta Factor” – What is it and is it useful?

Context is essential when developing an argument, and that is what this post on the "Delta Factor" is designed to do.  Rather than use ETFs in the "Delta Factor" argument, I selected 20 well-known stocks so I could dip back to the late 1900s for data.  Many ETFs we use did not exist in the late 1900s and early 2000s and most that did lack the necessary historical data … [Read More...]

300 Level

Momentum-Optimization Portfolio Construction

Constructing a portfolio through the use of a Momentum-Optimization Model (MOM) is infinitely easier than it was just a few years ago.  For one, we have many commission free ETFs to use so that trading costs do not consume all returns.  Computing power is the big difference as readers will see in a few moments.  If you Bing or Google "ETF Momentum Investing" you will find many references to … [Read More...]

Portfolio Performance – 1 October 2010

TDAmeritrade came out with the September statements this afternoon so I was able to update many of the portfolios in greater detail that expected. In nearly every case, we made progress either by gaining on the benchmarks or reducing portfolio risk. Only in the case of the Schrodinger Portfolio, where we switched to the ITA Index benchmark for our SR and RR calculations, did we see significant … [Read More...]

200 Level

Portfolioist Portfolio: Looking For Additional Diversification

Before digging into the following Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) analysis too deeply, read Geoff Considine's articles on portfolio diversification.  The first article lays out the basic logic for diversification and the second article goes into more details.  In the following analysis, I take the portfolio and run it through the QPP wringer to see what projections are in store for … [Read More...]

Advantages to Mosaic Investing

It comes as no surprise to long standing Platinum members that most equity ETFs are highly correlated.  The basic ones we use to populate many of our portfolios show correlations of 80% or higher when analyzed using the Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) software.  To reduce portfolio volatility and increase the Diversification Metric (DM) we have several choices.  One common approach … [Read More...]

400 Level

Kenilworth Portfolio Review: 24 April 2012

Today is monthly review time for the Kenilworth Portfolio.  Checking the critical ETFs, three of eight ended up in the "sell" zone, but two are so close the end of day price could reverse the trigger.  Since I will not be making any moves before the business day tomorrow, I'll wait to see the opening prices for VEU and VWO. The Dashboard is shown in the following screen … [Read More...]

Asset Allocation for ITARR Model

What does the Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) plan look like for investors using the ITA Risk Reduction (ITARR) model?  Keep in mind that you can use the general ITARR principles laid out in a prior blog post.  The following screen shots are examples for the Madison Portfolio, another candidate for the ITARR timing model.  Below is the SAA plan if one populates the portfolio using … [Read More...]