100 Level

Latest Bullish Percent Indicators

Readers looking for the latest Bullish Percent Indicators will find them at this site.  These results simply underline what I've been saying for weeks - this is an overbought market.  One of the ways to protect capital is to implement the ITA Risk Reduction model or simply go to cash at some point when the market backs off these high levels.  That is an extremely difficult call to make.  I'm … [Read More...]

Seeking Alpha Articles

Over the last few weeks I've been writing a few articles for  Seeking Alpha and they have pulled a few blog posts off this site.  In case you missed any of these articles, here are the links. Emerging Market Countries: Properly Priced Probabilities Portfolio Risk: Is It Worth Taking a Chance? Stress Testing Retirement Portfolio: Will It Last? A 10 … [Read More...]

300 Level

Portfolio Performance Data: 4 March 2011

Photograph: Harley at the cabin in Central Oregon Platinum members will find the performance data below.  This is the first complete update since the February statements became available.  In almost every situation, the portfolios gained ground on the VTSMX index.  Quite a few showed improvement in the Sortino and Retirement Ratios, possibly the key measurement. Platinum … [Read More...]

Return and Risk Relationship

What is the relationship between return of a portfolio and the associated risk involved? Quoting from an “Active vs. Passive” paper I found in my files. “High potential returns always involve high potential risks. There are no low-risk/high-return investments. Investment risk comes in many forms but, to most investors, risk means the potential for losing investment capital and … [Read More...]

200 Level

Goal Setting

What are your retirement investment goals?  Do you even think about setting goals?  Would this statement fit your situation? "I really would like to be able to pay for my children's education, retire, and enjoy my retirement."  While this statement covers a broad range of expectations, it is not specific.  Over what time frame do you intend to cover or reach these … [Read More...]

Retirement Mistake #5: Underestimating Life Expectancy

Not only are we living longer, but we are living healthier lives.  When planning for retirement, what age should one project as the end-of-life year?  When running out retirement projections using the Monte Carlo calculations within the Quantext Portfolio Planner software, I use 100 as the end-of-life year when testing the probability of running out of money.  There are many assumptions that go … [Read More...]

400 Level

Risk Avoidance the Mebane T. Faber Way

Managing risk is a significant component of portfolio management.  We monitor risk through the Sortino and Retirement Ratios within the TLH spreadsheet, but we do not use the TLH as a technical analysis tool.  It is not designed to perform those functions.  This morning I pulled Matt Willson's article off Seeking Alpha.  Within the article is a reference to Mebane T. … [Read More...]

Kenilworth Portfolio Review: 21 February 2012

While it is a few days early to update the Kenilworth Portfolio, based on the current ETF prices and their respective 195-Day EMAs, nothing is likely to happen over the next few weeks let alone the next three days.  Here is the link to the StockCharts graphs we use for the ITA Risk Reduction model.  The following two screen shots show the Dashboard and Portfolio Performance data for the … [Read More...]