100 Level

Bonds: Should They Be Part Of The Asset Allocation Plan?

While I am not going to go into the details until a later post, this is a quick note to let Platinum members know that bonds are on "notice." … [Read More...]

Use of Leveraged ETFs

Leveraged ETFs are generally not a great investment for a long term investment since they do not necessarily behave as we might expect. One is a simple mathematical reason. Consider the 2 scenarios shown in the table below. The first scenario considers a stock that moves sideways by moving up 1% one day, down 1% the next and repeats this pattern. The second scenario is a bullish scenario where the … [Read More...]

300 Level

Sample Portfolio Requested By Platinum Member

The following set of tickers and percentages were sent to me for analysis.  I used five years of historical data and set, as I generally do, a 7.0% return projection for the S&P 500.  I used TIP (1.0%) for the cash holding.  That choice has little impact on the final projections.    Below is the analysis data.  Instead of me writing up my observations, I'll … [Read More...]

Einstein Portfolio Review: 19 July 2011

Photograph:  Taken at a distance and cropped. Since the last review of the Einstein Portfolio, shares of HYG were sold so as to bring the bond/income asset class back into balance.  Two asset classes are still out of the 25% Threshold range, but we are making good progress with the Einstein.  One limit order is in place for International REITs.  When the order is filled … [Read More...]

200 Level

Portfolio #2: Ages 26 – 35

Portfolio #2 adds a few more ETFs and gives up nothing in performance.  In fact, the projected standard deviation (portfolio uncertainty) drops from 20.1% to 17.6%.  Diversity is increased from 8% to 29% and the Portfolio Autocorrelation drops two percentage points. … [Read More...]

Alternative Investment Vehicles to Suggested Index Funds

What are the alternatives one might use to those suggested by Solin in his recent book, "The Smartest Portfolio You'll Ever Own."  The reason for seeking alternative investments is two fold.  1)  We seek ETFs that have historical records of at least three years.  This is so we can run Quantext Portfolio Analysis (QPP) on the portfolios.  2)  When … [Read More...]

400 Level

“Delta Factor” Projections for Twenty ETFs

In response to a user request, below are the individual "Delta Factor" projections for twenty ETFs frequently used in one of more of the portfolios tracked here at ITA Wealth Management.  Neither the Delta or Delta Factor columns are heavily populated with green or Buy recommendations.  Five years of data were used so this puts the beginning period back in the middle of the last major bear … [Read More...]

Bullish Percent Indicators: 26 July 2013

While this past week did not seem to be a particularly strong for the stock market the Bullish Percent Indicators (BPI), for the most part, tell a different story.  Nearly every major market and sector increased the percentage of stocks with a bullish Point and Figure graph.  There were no changes as to who controlled the ball - the offensive of defensive teams. … [Read More...]