100 Level

Links to Retirement Articles and Sector ETFs

Interested in retirement articles.  Geoff Considine, developer of the QPP software, has written the first four of five articles on retirement.  You can find the first article using this link.  The other articles can be found by going to the right sidebar under Recent Posts. I had an article published on Seeking Alpha on sector ETFs.  This link will take you to that article. … [Read More...]

Broad Market Outlook Beginning to Show Cracks

As anticipated for a number of weeks, the broad U.S. Equities market is showing the first signs of cracking.  The following Bullish Percent Indicator tables provide the evidence. The following information is not available for publication elsewhere on the Internet. Broad Index BPIs:  All major indexes are now controlled by defensive teams as all show O's in the right-hand column when examined … [Read More...]

300 Level

Sample Portfolio For The Mosaic Investor

Investors who use a few individual stock will be interested in the following portfolio suggested by a reader.  By Mosaic, I mean an investor who uses an array of index ETFs (or index funds) and then sprinkles in some individual stocks. QPP Analysis of Suggested Portfolio:  In this analysis the S&P 500 is assumed to grow at an annual rate of 7.0% so this portfolio is projected to outperform … [Read More...]

Return/Risk Optimization of Harry Browne’s “Permanent Portfolio”

The "Permanent Portfolio" developed by Harry Brown leaves quite a bit to be desired when one optimizes for the highest Return/Risk ratio.  The four ETFs selected for stocks, bonds, gold, and cash are VTI, BIV, GTU, and SHY respectively.  There are other choices to represent these asset classes, but these four are the ones I selected for this analysis. … [Read More...]

200 Level

How Many Asset Classes or ETFs Are Required to Construct Diversified Portfolio?

One of my favorite blog writers is Geoff Considine of the Portfolioist.  Yesterday, November 28th, Dr. Considine published an interesting article that begins to answer the above question - How many asset classes or ETFs are necessary to build a well-diversified portfolio?  Considine posits ten (10) asset classes will provide sufficient diversification.  David Swensen argues in his book, … [Read More...]

American Workers Unprepared

ITA Wealth Management is not so much a blog of how to make money as it is a blog to help investors achieve retirement goals.  According to recent Department of Labor statistics on retirement sufficiency, U.S. workers retiring in the 2050s will have saved only enough in their 401(k) accounts to replace an average of 22% of their pre-retirement income.  What is staggering is that 37% will have no … [Read More...]

400 Level

One Added Wrinkle to the ITARR Model

One change I plan to make in the ITA Risk Reduction (ITARR) model is the following.  When an ETF is out of the buy zone (priced below its 195-Day EMA), instead of waiting for it to cross from below to above the 195-Day EMA, pay attention to the Relative Strength Indicator.  Take a look at the following example. … [Read More...]

Delta Factor Shouts – The Market Is Over Valued!

Based on the most recent Delta Factor data, the current market is over-valued, and that is putting it mildly.  I don't think I've seen this many "red" projections since the market hit its 2007 highs.  What I did was take both equity and bond ETFs that are commission free for TDAmeritrade clients and use percentages not all that far removed from the recommendations that come out of the … [Read More...]