100 Level

Stress Testing the 10 ETF Portfolio

A Seeking Alpha reader showed interest in the 10-ETF Portfolio and asked how such a portfolio might stand up under a stress test as I applied to another portfolio. Before running such an analysis, one needs to understand the assumptions.  For this analysis I assume the investor is 45 years old, has saved $250,000, saves $12,000 per year, and will retire on $50,000 per year upon retirement in … [Read More...]

Madison Portfolio Review

Since the last Madison update 33 days ago, shares of TLT, RWX, and DBC were sold and the available cash was used to pick up shares of VTI - all in keeping with the Momentum-Optimization Model (MOM).  Of the eleven portfolios tracked here at ITA, the Madison is one of three where all the transactions are not available to Platinum members. Madison Dashboard:  The 26% allocated to international … [Read More...]

300 Level

A Very Basic Three ETF Portfolios

In response to the keep it simple blog post, here is a three ETF portfolio analysis.  The 30% allocation to bonds (BND) pulls down the projected return to 6.2%.  Allocating that percentage to bonds also holds down the projected volatility to 12.8%.  Note that this simple portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 over the past five years, and did it with a lower standard deviation. With only three … [Read More...]

Are Optimizers Anything But Error Maximizers?

Mean-Variance Optimization "Mean-variance optimization presents an illusion of precision that is seductive but generally fallacious and even dangerous."  So writes Richard O. Michaud in his book, Efficient Asset Management: A Practical Guide to Stock Portfolio Optimization and Asset Allocation.  Harold R. Evensky provides this MVO warning.  "In spite of my strong defense of Markowitz's … [Read More...]

200 Level

QPP Analysis of Swensen-Faber Merged Portfolio

Merging ideas from the "Swensen Six" and "Faber Ten" portfolios has the potential to generate a wide array of asset allocation plans.  In the following example I am sticking with the general percentages allocated to the broad asset classes, as recommended by David Swensen, but you will see that I am adding asset classes as suggested in the "Faber Ten" portfolio. … [Read More...]

Portfolio Performance Data: 22 July 2011

How did your portfolio perform this last week?  Did you gain in absolute terms but lose the relative race?  Well, that is what happened to most of the portfolios tracked using the TLH Spreadsheet.  We lost most of the ground gained last week when examining the VTSMX and ITA Index benchmarks.  Nearly all the portfolios showed a decline in both the Sortinio and Retirement … [Read More...]

400 Level

Sample Retirement Portfolio

The following portfolio is one suggested by a Platinum member.  The first screenshot shows the original asset allocation.  For reference, the assumed growth for the S&P 500 is 7% annually.  Should I ever forget to include this assumption, readers can check by looking at the bottom right section (gray background) to see the projected return and projected standard deviation.  The time frame is … [Read More...]

Delta Factor After 400 Point Drop

ITA Wealth Management readers likely want to know what the Delta and Delta Factor projections are indicating after the 400 point drop yesterday.  The buying trend has started, although we still could be early in the cycle.  The reason I think we may be early is that it is not unusual for the Delta Factor to make projections a few months early.  Two time ranges are shown in the … [Read More...]