100 Level

Dow 30 And The “Delta Factor”

Normally, I reserve the "Delta Factor" analysis for non-managed index ETFs.  Deviating from that pattern, below is a table for the Dow Jones Industrial 30 stocks.  ITA followers, who are also Mosaic investors, will find this list of interest.  Are there any mega-cap stocks that show promise of price growth over the next six to twelve months? When examining a table such as … [Read More...]

“Seeking Alpha” Portfolio

The following portfolio is one mentioned by a "Seeking Alpha" reader.  It is unlikely the percentages are used as shown in the following analysis as I assigned nearly equal amounts to each of the eight ETFs.  Note the projected return is 8.64% but the projected uncertainty is a very high 18.5%.  This gives rise to a Return/Uncertainty ratio of 0.46 or much lower than our … [Read More...]

300 Level

Suggested Portfolio

A Platinum member sent in the following portfolio for a Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) analysis and evaluation.  In the following screen shots, readers will see the tickers, percentages allocated to each, the QPP analysis, and a three-year look at the "Delta Factor" projections.  For the following QPP analysis, I used three years of historical data and assumed the S&P 500 … [Read More...]

Analysis of Submitted Portfolio

The following list of tickers and associated percentages were submitted for analysis.  I made a few changes that may have a small impact on the projected outcomes.  For the bond allocation I am using BND as the holding.  For cash I used TIP, not an exact, but reasonable replacement.  TIP actually gives the portfolio a return boost. The analysis was cut to something under three years as a number … [Read More...]

200 Level

Rebalancing Portfolio: Blending Dashboard and Optimizer

Now that an optimizing tool is available, how does one rebalance a portfolio by combining the output of an optimizer with the Dashboard guidelines?  The larger topic is one of asset allocation so I will start with the following Dashboard that defines an asset allocation plan. Dashboard:  Assume the following Dashboard lays out the Strategic Asset Allocation plan for a portfolio.  Only pay … [Read More...]

Capital Markets Outlook and Retirement Payout Percentage

Platinum members are well aware of my conservative recommendations when it comes to the payout percentage during retirement.  While it is common to suggest a payout of 5% during retirement, I advocate pulling out as little as 2% per year and no more than 4%.  Lowering the payout rate "insures" one will not run out of money in retirement.  I hope to have a spreadsheet that … [Read More...]

400 Level

Momentum-Optimization Analysis of Equity Oriented Portfolio

Momentum-Optimization Analysis In the prior blog post I analyzed a sample portfolio using Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP).  In this analysis I will use the momentum-optimizer spreadsheet to come up with the efficient frontier, a ranking of the securities, and the "decision maker," a Buy-Hold-Sell recommendation table.  We first take a look at the efficient frontier graph to see where the current … [Read More...]

Delta Factor and Stocks of Interest

Out of curiosity, I wanted to see what the "Delta Factor" would tell us for a group of stocks that show up with a "Buy" signal on my Watch List or 150 stocks.  Without a lot of comment, below is a list of stocks that are priced for purchase based on the pricing models I use within the Watch List.  Extracting only those stocks, I ran them through the "Delta … [Read More...]