100 Level

“Swensen Six” Series Coming

Be sure to link to http://itawealth.com this coming week to read the three-part series on the "Swensen Six" portfolio.  To get you started on what the "Swensen Six" is all about, check out these three … [Read More...]

Passive and Index Investing

Passive or Index Investing Yesterday I defined active investing and today I am writing about Passive Investing and Index Investing. Since these terms are used interchangeably, I want to discuss both as there are slight differences.  What I don't know is if the broad investing community makes any distinction between passive and index investing. Here is how I view the two investing … [Read More...]

300 Level

Optimized Mosaic Portfolio

While the following portfolio is not exactly one of the eleven portfolios tracked here at ITA Wealth Management, there are many similar ingredients.  To create this portfolio I selected 26 ETFs that are frequently part of at least one ITA portfolio.  Familiar ETFs such as VTI, VEU, VWO, DVY, VTV, IWN, VOE, VOT, VNQ, RWX, etc. are among the 26 ETFs.  Nine (9) bond ETFs were in the group, but most … [Read More...]

Mandelbrot: Efficient Market Critic

Benoit Mandelbrot, inventor of fractal geometry, is one of the most articulate critic of what is known as the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Mandelbrot does suggest a method for portfolio construction and it closely follows what Geoff Considine developed in his Quantext Portfolio Planning (QPP) software. Mandelbrot advocates stress testing the portfolio. Quoting from his book, "It means … [Read More...]

200 Level

Can Your Portfolio Survive The Next Bear Market?

The following SORDEX analysis is a variation of the material presented in the "Will I Run Out of Money?" blog.  Once more, I will use the 12-ETF Portfolio as the retirement portfolio.  As review, SORDEX is an acronym for Sequence-of-Returns Downside Exposure. Translated for T. C. PITS, it is a way to run several Monte Carlo calculations and see if you are likely to run out of … [Read More...]

“New Normal” Portfolio With Risk Reduction Allocation Plan

Following up on the risk adjusted Ten ETF Portfolio analyzed yesterday, what does the "New Normal" group of stocks and ETFs look like when the same risk management algorithm is applied.  In this analysis I was able to stretch the historical period out over five-years.  The percentage allocated to the different stocks and ETFs look reasonable when the low variance BND ETF is not … [Read More...]

400 Level

ITA Risk Reduction Followers

Early this morning I ran through the primary ETFs used to populate most portfolios and only commodities and gold are in the doghouse.  That is, DBC and GTU are currently priced below their 195-Day Exponential Moving average.  To see what this looks like, here is the link for DBC, our primary commodity holding. Portfolios managed using the ITARR model are out of gold and commodities.  I may hold … [Read More...]

Bullish Percent Indicators: Markets Beginning to Weaken

For the first time in many weeks we are beginning to see some cracks develop in what has been a very strong stock market.  To see what I mean, examine the two screenshots shown below. The following information is not for publication elsewhere on the Internet. … [Read More...]