100 Level

Gordon Equation Revisited

Back on December 16, 2009, I wrote the following over on the old blog. Market Return = Dividend Yield + Dividend Growth Rate is known as the Gordon Equation. This simple equation provides a way to predict long-term stock market returns, and we need to emphasize long-term.  Quoting Bernstein from his “Four Pillars of Investing” book, page 57, “…the Gordon Equation … [Read More...]

Basic Portfolio Update: Changes in Momentum

As the market rotates from day to day, changes will show up in any portfolio if one is following the "Dynamic" plus SHY model.  If you are new to the blog and do not know what I am referring to, be sure to read The Feynman Study.  For example, yesterday there were only two viable ETFs that were outperforming the SHY, our cutoff ETF.  As mentioned in a comment, only VBK and VTV were ranked above … [Read More...]

300 Level

Einstein Portfolio Update: 28 September 2011

Platinum members can witness that the Einstein Portfolio is coming very close to being in balance in all asset classes.  I placed limit orders to sell shares of VO and VB which will bring MCB and SCB back into balance.  With the small amount of available cash, I placed a limit order for BWX, an international treasure bond ETF.  As you can see from the Dashboard asset allocation plan … [Read More...]

Market Conditions of Concern

Market Worries Two days ago I wrote a piece on Technical Analysis and how the market is overbought.  This morning I ran into a related column and the reference is provided below.  The concern is tied to mounting oil prices.  Not addressed in the article is the assault on jobs at the state level.  If the the widespread cuts continue, Ben Bernanke predicts future growth could … [Read More...]

200 Level

Asset Allocation: A Low-Medium Risk Portfolio

In this current series of five portfolios, the following QPP analysis shows the second most conservative portfolio.  While we gain a little in projected portfolio return, we also see an uptick in the projected uncertainty.  The Diversification Metric also stays well below our goal of 40%.  While these QPP examinations are only projections, they do provide us with some probability … [Read More...]

Developing a Portfolio Plan

Basic Suggestions in Portfolio Development* In the beginning stages of setting up a portfolio plan, there are a few essential decisions investors make. Here are a few hints to consider. Follow "The Golden Rule of Investing." Save as much as you can as early as you can. Develop a savings plan as there is no avoiding this step. Live below your means.  Learn … [Read More...]

400 Level

Sample 4 ETF Portfolio

Another Platinum member asked for an evaluation or analysis of this four (4) ETF portfolio. Efficient Frontier:  This EF graph is instructive as one can easily see how the four ETFs are influencing the final outcome.  IEF and TIP dominate the portfolio and move the current (diamond dot) mix of ETFs down in the lower left portfolio of the graph.  Increasing percentages to SPY and EFA would … [Read More...]

Bullish Percent Indicators: 1 February 2013

While several sectors showed some weakness this week, our primary index (NYSE) moved up slightly.  The data tables are shown below. The following material is not available for publication elsewhere on the Internet. … [Read More...]