100 Level

My Portfolio Is Performing Great. Really? How Do You Know?

One comment I frequently hear when folks talk about investments is the following. "My portfolio is performing great." This statement conjures up questions I rarely ask as it tends to put the investor on the spot. Here are a few question that run through my mind. Performing great with respect to what? When was the portfolio launched? Is the portfolio return calculated by an acceptable … [Read More...]

Harold Evensky’s Definition of Active and Passive Portfolio Management

Debating which investing style, passive or active, is the superior method is unlikely to end soon. The research is too conflicting and exceptions still exist. The difference of opinion has a long and acrimonious history – and it continues to this day. Before we enter the debate and provide some opinions, it is important to define what is meant by passive and active. A third investing style, the … [Read More...]

300 Level

Using the Ranking Spreadsheet as a Timing Tool

This Post is in response to a comment from a member concerning whether the Ranking Sheet (and Momentum Percentage) might be useful as a general market timing tool for different markets (e.g. US Equities, non US Equities). As suggested by the member, I've setup the spreadsheet with only 4 ETFs, US Equities (VTI), Developed Markets ex-US (EFA), Emerging Markets ex US (VWO) and (the inevitable) … [Read More...]

Bohr Portfolio Update – 16 August 2011

August activity in the Bohr Portfolio includes purchases of RWX, VOE, and VEU.  All were small additions to bring the asset class percentages into closer alignment with the target goals.  Dividends for PG, BND and TIP provided a few dollars in cash.  Limit orders for DVY and VTV are in place to pull up Large-Cap Value, the one asset class that is under target.  Were I to use a … [Read More...]

200 Level

Portfolio Performance: 9 March 2012

Portfolio Performance:  The following table shows the performance data for eleven portfolios tracked here at ITA Wealth Management.  The ITA Index is a customized benchmark that one can develop within the TLH Spreadsheet.  The Sortino Ratio (SR) and Retirement Ratio (RR) are semi-variance calculations to determine portfolio risk or volatility. … [Read More...]

Stress Testing the Modest Retirement Portfolio

Back on January 7 of this year I posted a "Modest Portfolio" that readers can locate and see the entire analysis.  Below is the same portfolio with a stress test included.  Since this is a middle of the road type portfolio, it is an excellent example to use for a stress test. The portfolio holds only nine ETFs and there are times when one will want to be out of SDS.  Now … [Read More...]

400 Level

Bullish Percent Indicator: 1 March 2013

Few major changes occurred in either the index or sector Bullish Percent Indicator (BPI) tables.  Overall, the numerical values decreased, but not in every area of the market.  Our primary BPI indicator, the NYSE, declined in numerical value, but not to the point where the offense gave the ball up to the defense.  Of the major indexes, only the NASDAQ and DJTA index markets are controlled by the … [Read More...]

Delta Factor: Second Draft

Below is the second draft of additional Delta Factor calculations.  As one can see from this table, the trends or signals arrive early.  I'm still not satisfied with the algorithm used to generate the Buy, Hold, and Sell signals for these ETFs. Note the dramatic shift between 9/15/2008 and 10/15/2008.  When I see something like this I recheck my figures. … [Read More...]