100 Level

Grandchildren: Use Index Funds

Build Your Portfolio Using Index Funds For most investors, what type of investment vehicles to use is a no-brainer.  Unless you are extremely skilled, stick to index mutual funds or index ETFs and stay away from selecting individual stocks as the way to build the core of your portfolio.  Become a passive investor or at the most, a Mosaic investor.  Educate yourself and then come to … [Read More...]

Working With The Basic Portfolio

Eventually I plan to move more of the ITA portfolios toward the following 20 ETFs.  In some portfolios I need to broaden the diversification and in others I need to reduce the number of securities in an effort to simplify.  Reducing cost is another motivation as all but two of the following ETFs can be purchased free if one is a TD Ameritrade client.  The two exceptions are GTU and VHT.  In this … [Read More...]

300 Level

Kepler Portfolio Review: 29 August 2011

If there is one portfolio that is hitting the sweet spot when it comes to meeting the asset allocation plan, the Kepler Portfolio is the master.  Check out the Dashboard from the TLH Spreadsheet below.  Since this is not a large portfolio, I decided to hold the Threshold to 25%.  Moving the percentage down to 20% would have pushed emerging markets into an underweight position, but I … [Read More...]

Top Core Stocks Analyzed Using QPP Plus Delta Factor Projections

Seeking top core stocks from investors who participate in the Growth Forum, the following analysis shows portfolio projections, the correlations within the portfolio, and the "Delta Stock" projections. QPP Analysis:  Nearly equal percentages are assigned to each stock.  The analysis spans five years and the S&P 500 is projected to grow 7.0% per year over the next few years.  Readers … [Read More...]

200 Level

Can Your Portfolio Survive The Next Bear Market?

The following SORDEX analysis is a variation of the material presented in the "Will I Run Out of Money?" blog.  Once more, I will use the 12-ETF Portfolio as the retirement portfolio.  As review, SORDEX is an acronym for Sequence-of-Returns Downside Exposure. Translated for T. C. PITS, it is a way to run several Monte Carlo calculations and see if you are likely to run out of … [Read More...]

The Permanent Portfolio Approach

The following comment generated this response.  The question is quoted so readers will follow the context of my post.  This is likely to be a long post so prepare yourself for some detailed information. "I would appreciate your comments on the following: I’ve been thinking about the Permanent Portfolio approach, and the Feynman studies; and possibly how to meld them together. First, about the … [Read More...]

400 Level

“Delta Factor” for Sector Portfolio

What is the "Delta Factor" projecting for the eleven sectors of the market?  Based on recent analysis, the international market is over bought.  Is the same true for the U.S. Equities market? Checking out the data table below, three years of historical data indicate the same over bought condition exists for the U.S. market. … [Read More...]

Delta Factor After 400 Point Drop

ITA Wealth Management readers likely want to know what the Delta and Delta Factor projections are indicating after the 400 point drop yesterday.  The buying trend has started, although we still could be early in the cycle.  The reason I think we may be early is that it is not unusual for the Delta Factor to make projections a few months early.  Two time ranges are shown in the … [Read More...]