100 Level

The Diversification Decision

The Diversification Decision Now we come to the most difficult decision of the five laid out in the Goldie – Murray book, "The Investment Answer." If you have the book in hand, you will realize I partially answered this question when I wrote about The Asset Allocation Decision. Here is the expanded explanation of the diversification decision articulated by G & M. "Which … [Read More...]

Bullish Percent Indicator Update

In the Bullish Percent Indicator data table below, I want to draw your attention to several features.  1) Look at the latest data in the 06/01/12 row.  The left-hand number, 46.62, is the most important as that indicates the percent of stocks in the NYSE that are generating a bullish PnF graph. [Next time I will include the headers or titles in the screen shot.]  That percent … [Read More...]

300 Level

Swensen Portfolio Plus Dividend ETF VIG

As suggested by one reader, I removed the individual stocks from the Swensen-Six Portfolio and added VIG, a dividend oriented ETF.  Below is the Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) analysis, correlation matrix, and "Delta Factor" projections when using five years of historical data.  One big advantage of using VIG instead of several individual stocks is one of simplicity.  … [Read More...]

QPP Projections for the Bohr Portfolio

As promised, here is the Quantext Portfolio Planning analysis for the Bohr Portfolio.  Since I ran the analysis, shares of VEU and VWO were sold.  These ETFs plunged well below their 195-Day EMAs early this morning so I decided to protect gains and sell off, not all, but the majority of shares held in emerging markets and developed international markets.  This move is contrary to … [Read More...]

200 Level

Stress Testing the Kepler Portfolio

Next week the Kepler Portfolio is up for review.  In advance of that update I am running what I call a "stress test" assuming this to be your retirement portfolio.  Given a set of assumptions laid out in the first slide, would this portfolio last through retirement? Here we have a 40 year-old who plans to retire in 2040 at age 68.  Having already saved $200,000 and planning to put away another … [Read More...]

Newton Portfolio Review

Thirty shares of VO were added to the Newton yesterday, bringing the Mid-Cap Blend asset class closer to balance.  I am slowly pulling this portfolio back into balance.  Emerging Markets (VWO) is the asset class that needs primary attention.  Plenty of cash is available in the Newton, making it much easier to bring asset classes below target back up to their targeted … [Read More...]

400 Level

Equity ETF “Delta Factor” Projections: Three & Five Years

What are the projections for Equity ETFs using three and five years of historical data?  The projections based on five-years of historical data spans the "Great Recession of 2008" while the three-years of historical data includes one of the better bull markets of recent memory.  With this historical context, we can almost visualize the projections for the following "Delta Factor" data tables.  … [Read More...]

Kenilworth Portfolio Review: 21 February 2012

While it is a few days early to update the Kenilworth Portfolio, based on the current ETF prices and their respective 195-Day EMAs, nothing is likely to happen over the next few weeks let alone the next three days.  Here is the link to the StockCharts graphs we use for the ITA Risk Reduction model.  The following two screen shots show the Dashboard and Portfolio Performance data for the … [Read More...]