100 Level

Risk Defined

Portfolio Risk Risk is a messy word as it carries so many different meanings in the investing world.  In the most general sense, it means we don't know what is going to happen.  Here are several specific meanings of the term.  We will begin by defining "systematic" and "specific" risk. 1.  "Systematic" risk is risk we cannot avoid if we seek returns higher than the interest rates from a money … [Read More...]

Bond Market: Important Article

Platinum members will want to read this important article from Seeking Alpha.  This paper is not an unusual or "off the wall" position. … [Read More...]

300 Level

“New Normal” Portfolio Revised

Photograph:  Cape Mears Lighthouse.  This is the lighthouse that was shot up by vandals a few years ago.  Although repairs were made, the lighthouse will never be the same as Fresnel lenses of this size and quality of glass are irreplaceable. The creator of the "New Normal" portfolio sent me the latest holdings so here is the revised Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) … [Read More...]

High Yield Retirement Portfolio

A Platinum member submitted the following portfolio for analysis.  The portfolio is designed to throw off income for a retiree and as you can see, the historical yield is a very high 4.6% so the portfolio is meeting that goal.  Take note that the portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 and did it with much lower risk. The projected return over the next six to twelve months is 7.6% or very close … [Read More...]

200 Level

Smartest Portfolio You’ll Ever Own?

Below is a portfolio I extracted from Daniel Solin's recent book, "The Smartest Portfolio You'll Ever Own."  Before I run a QPP analysis on one of the suggest portfolios, let me point out that the BWZ ETF did not have a three-year record.  As a result, the following analysis runs for only 31 months.  Under current market conditions, my preference is to use 48 … [Read More...]

Sample Retirement Portfolio

The following portfolio is one suggested by a Platinum member.  The first screenshot shows the original asset allocation.  For reference, the assumed growth for the S&P 500 is 7% annually.  Should I ever forget to include this assumption, readers can check by looking at the bottom right section (gray background) to see the projected return and projected standard deviation.  The time frame is … [Read More...]

400 Level

ITA Risk Reduction Update

Photograph: One of the "Painted Ladies" in Eureka, California The broad market is taking a 3.5% hit today, not a trivial move to the downside.  Those of you following the ITA Risk Reduction (ITARR) model now have the opportunity to see the benefits in action.  While we are not fully employed with this model, holding off with VEU and VWO purchases worked quite well as both ETFs … [Read More...]

QPP Projections for “Swensen Six” On March 15 of 2009

What was the Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) software projecting for the "Swensen Six" Portfolio back on March 15th of 2009?  I use the Swensen as an example portfolio since it is simple and it includes most of the basic asset classes we use with ITA portfolios.  In addition, March 15th was about the market bottom, so it is of interest to see what the projections were when we were all biting our … [Read More...]