100 Level

The Condition of Bonds Using Delta Factor

What is the current condition of bond ETFs and should they be part of the portfolio?  To examine this question one method of analysis is to apply the Delta Factor.  When I run a reversion-to-the-mean analysis on bonds, I use AGG as the reference or standard.  For equity ETFs I use the VTSMX total stock index fund.  In the following table each bond ETF is compared with the … [Read More...]

The Trend is Our Friend: Risk Parity, Momentum and Trend Following

A few days ago I ran into an article Platinum members may find interesting.  There are some possible underlying benefits to applying the "Delta Factor" and the Bullish Percent Indicator.  You will need to download this article from Mebane Faber's site as I did not find it available as a stand along article.  I'll provide the best path I could find. … [Read More...]

300 Level

Mosaic Portfolio Lookback – 02 January 2008

Mosaic Portfolio Lookback What were the signals at the beginning of the year - 2008?  If one examines the QPP analysis below, times looked great. Projected return was 10.45% or about 3.5% points above that projected for the S&P 500.  Yes, the projected risk or uncertainty is a tad over 15%, but the Return/Uncertainty ratio is a very high 0.70.  This is almost unheard of, at … [Read More...]

Portfolio Performance – 20 August 2010

For some reason, I expected to see greater decline in the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) values this week.  In a number of cases, the portfolios picked up a little ground on the performance of the VTSMX. Obviously, this is due to the broad diversity of the asset classes held in the portfolios. In a few cases, the ITA Index increased significantly and that is due to the addition of … [Read More...]

200 Level

Portfolio Performance: 26 August 2011

The August 26th performance data was lost during the blog migration from Host A to Host B.  I'm re-posting the data table so this information is available. All portfolios tracked using the Captool software are now updated, something that was not complete last weekend. The August statements should be available this weekend so I will likely not post another performance table until I have … [Read More...]

How Does A Beginning Investor Use The ITARR Model?

When one has been saving and investing as long as I have, it is easy to forget many of the initial steps necessary to launch and manage a portfolio.  In this blog post, I will attempt to fill in a few gaps, and even with this effort, I will most likely miss something.  That is why I appreciate questions.  I am using the Gauss Portfolio as my model for several reasons.  1) It is … [Read More...]

400 Level

Update On ITARR Big Seven ETFs

Most of us using the ITA Risk Reduction model are in the "neglect" period so this information is not all that essential.  For those who are still thinking about using ITARR, all but VTI are now priced below their respective 195-Day EMAs.  Yes, IWN, VEU, VWO, VNQ, IGE, and RWX are all priced below their EMAs.  Some are well below while others are only a tad below. Once … [Read More...]

Bullish Percent Indicators: 14 September 2012

What a great week for investors!  The Bullish Percent Indicators reflect the strong market, as one might expect.  The question now facing us is, how do we protect profits and can we look forward to a 10% correction?  The negative can wait.  Let's enjoy the week and focus on the positive results. … [Read More...]