100 Level

The Condition of Bonds Using Delta Factor

What is the current condition of bond ETFs and should they be part of the portfolio?  To examine this question one method of analysis is to apply the Delta Factor.  When I run a reversion-to-the-mean analysis on bonds, I use AGG as the reference or standard.  For equity ETFs I use the VTSMX total stock index fund.  In the following table each bond ETF is compared with the … [Read More...]

Three Asset Class Portfolio

Suppose someone told you to build a portfolio, but the upper limit of investments was three.  You could pick three stocks, three mutual funds, three ETFs, or any combination of three investments.  What three investment vehicles would you select, and why would you pick these three? None of us wants to be limited to only three investments, but that is the challenge of this … [Read More...]

300 Level

Test Portfolios Using Private Equity

This is the first of a series of test portfolios where ITA readers will find a few different ETFs, one being private equity (PSP).  This first portfolios has a standard array of ETFs.  I am using VV as a "pure-play" for large-cap blend.  Normally I do not use this ETF as it is not in TD Ameritrade's stable of commission free ETFs.  JNK is the high yield fixed … [Read More...]

Portfolio Performance Data: 23 September 2011

After this week, ITA Wealth Management readers will certainly be aware of the high Retirement Ratio (RR) standard.  Only one portfolio, the Einstein, managed to turn in a positive RR value.  Let's face it, it was a very poor week for both domestic and world markets.  IRR percentage points were shed by every portfolio.  The good news is that most of the portfolios gained on … [Read More...]

200 Level

Supercharging Portfolio With Low Beta Stocks

In response to recent discussions surrounding Geoff Considine's article, "Why Low Beta Stocks Are Worth a Look," I put together a simple portfolio made up of several ETFs found in many of the ITA Wealth Management portfolios.  I added two low volatility ETFs, SPLV and USMV.  These are new ETFs requiring a shorter time frame in the following QPP analysis. … [Read More...]

Portfolio Performance: 6 April 2012

It has been several weeks since I last published a Portfolio Performance data table as I was away on a family emergency.  The following table contains current data as all the dividends for the first quarter are included in these results.  There was consistency up and down the portfolio columns.  In general, since the last post both the portfolios and the VTSMX benchmark lost a … [Read More...]

400 Level

Bullish Percent Indicators Are Not Calling For a Panic

Regardless of the "fiscal cliff" problems, the Bullish Percent Indicators for both the broad indexes and individual sectors are not showing any signs of a panic or sell-off.  There are even pockets of strength as Platinum members will see in the following slides. The following material is not available for publication elsewhere on the Internet. … [Read More...]

Historical Basis for ITA Risk Reduction Model

A few days ago I was asked if there was any historical data supporting the ITA Risk Reduction (ITARR) model.  The quick answer is - no.  The model has been operational for about four months or insufficient time to build any sort of record.  However, I did use a similar model successfully during the 1980s.  There were a few differences in that model vs. the ITARR model.  … [Read More...]