100 Level

What Does It Take To Retire?

Retirement Requirements What does it take in savings to live during retirement? Here is data that readers may find of interest as they think about portfolio development and eventual retirement. Assume a couple, nearing retirement, anticipate they will need $80,000 after taxes per year to live during their first year without employment. Between them they will receive a pension of $2,000 per … [Read More...]

Why The Next Twenty Years Will Not Likely Repeat The Market From 1982 – 2000

Investors who participated in the Great Bull Market from August of 1982 through March of 2000 are not likely to witness a repeat of that market for another two decades, if not longer.  Why the pessimistic position?  Here are the reasons as I see them. Demographics:  With 10,000 "boomers" retiring each day, downward pressure is placed on stocks as retirees withdraw … [Read More...]

300 Level

QPP Analysis of Kepler Portfolio

Nearly six months rolled by since the last Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) analysis of the Kepler Portfolio.  Platinum readers can go through the QPP analysis and do not neglect the correlation matrix.  Take a close look and let me know your observations. … [Read More...]

Euclid Portfolio Update: 5 November 2012

Thirty-two days passed since the last review of the Euclid Portfolio and during that time, DBC, one of the commodity holdings dropped in price so that it is now below the 195-Day Exponential Moving Average.  Since Euclid is one of the ITA Risk Reduction (ITARR) model portfolios, it is time to sell DBC and wait for the price to move above its 195-Day EMA.  As Platinum readers can see from the … [Read More...]

200 Level

Einstein Portfolio Update: 28 September 2011

Platinum members can witness that the Einstein Portfolio is coming very close to being in balance in all asset classes.  I placed limit orders to sell shares of VO and VB which will bring MCB and SCB back into balance.  With the small amount of available cash, I placed a limit order for BWX, an international treasure bond ETF.  As you can see from the Dashboard asset allocation plan … [Read More...]

What The Experts Say About Index Investing

Photograph:  Georgia O'Keeffe Museum Research Center - New Mexico   Perusing the Bogleheads web site, I found this long list of quotes from well known investment writers and managers.  Here is what they have to say about index investing.  These bits of wisdom further explain why I favor tilting investments toward non-managed index vehicles.  Further, I favor ETFs for … [Read More...]

400 Level

Some Answers to Correlation Questions

In a recent post I showed examples of Correlation Matrices generated by different softwares from (seemingly) the same data. I have now found explanations for the differences in all but the data generated by the QPP software. In the original post I used raw price data to generate the Excel correlation matrix – as such, that matrix was correct. However, in the analysis of stock price data, the … [Read More...]

Examining Equity Markets Using the “Delta Factor”

Read this article as it supports the findings of the "Delta Factor" probability projections shown below.  To learn more about the Gordon Equation, search that term on this blog. Which equity ETFs have the greatest probability of doing well over the next six to twelve months?  The following analysis looks at both a three- and five-year history of a variety of equity ETFs.  … [Read More...]