100 Level

Latest Bullish Percent Indicators

Readers looking for the latest Bullish Percent Indicators will find them at this site.  These results simply underline what I've been saying for weeks - this is an overbought market.  One of the ways to protect capital is to implement the ITA Risk Reduction model or simply go to cash at some point when the market backs off these high levels.  That is an extremely difficult call to make.  I'm … [Read More...]

Five ETF Portfolio

Adding REITs What happens if a fifth ETF is added to the portfolio.  In addition to U.S. equities (VTI), developed international markets (VEU), emerging markets (VWO), and bonds/income (TLT), we add REITs (VNQ).  Can we increase projected return and diversification without sacrificing uncertainty or risk?  Below is the screen shot of a five asset class portfolio. … [Read More...]

300 Level

Delta Factor After 400 Point Drop

ITA Wealth Management readers likely want to know what the Delta and Delta Factor projections are indicating after the 400 point drop yesterday.  The buying trend has started, although we still could be early in the cycle.  The reason I think we may be early is that it is not unusual for the Delta Factor to make projections a few months early.  Two time ranges are shown in the … [Read More...]

Newton Portfolio Update: 13 August 2012

Since the last update I made minor changes to the Strategic Asset Allocation plan of the Newton Portfolio.  I lowered the percentage allocated to U.S. Equities and increased the percentage assigned to domestic real estate.  Since VNQ has been such a strong performer, that exchange increased the IRR value of the ITA Index.  The new asset allocation is shown in the Dashboard below. … [Read More...]

200 Level

Why Do Amateurs Continue To Try When Professionals Fail?

Seeking Alpha is the scene of a debate around the viability of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH).  Before going very far into this topic, please keep in mind that we don't want this information to be scattered very far in the world of investing as we want active manager to keep throwing those $20 dollar bills on the ground so we as passive managers can come along a scoop them up for … [Read More...]

Asset Allocation: A Low-Medium Risk Portfolio

In this current series of five portfolios, the following QPP analysis shows the second most conservative portfolio.  While we gain a little in projected portfolio return, we also see an uptick in the projected uncertainty.  The Diversification Metric also stays well below our goal of 40%.  While these QPP examinations are only projections, they do provide us with some probability … [Read More...]

400 Level

Worry Free Investing: Young Readers – Listen Up!

No, I am not obsessed with risk even though I've recently written quite a bit on the subject.  Why the concern about risk as the market seems to be having a good summer?  The specter of rising interest is a major fear for this reason.  If interest rates were to rise to the same level they were when George Bush (43) took office, the amount of money the U.S. Government will need … [Read More...]

Bullish Percent Indicator Update

In the Bullish Percent Indicator data table below, I want to draw your attention to several features.  1) Look at the latest data in the 06/01/12 row.  The left-hand number, 46.62, is the most important as that indicates the percent of stocks in the NYSE that are generating a bullish PnF graph. [Next time I will include the headers or titles in the screen shot.]  That percent … [Read More...]