100 Level

Preparing for Retirement: Avoid the Dunning-Kruger Effect

A few days ago I came across an article on the psychology of investing over on the Portfolioist blog.  The article is written by Daniel R. Solin, author of "The Smartest Portfolio You'll Ever Own." Readers will recall that I analyzed some of the portfolios from the Solin book here on ITA Wealth Management.  When I read articles of how our brains can get in the way of … [Read More...]

Why Use Index Funds?

The Power of Index Investing Why are 80% to 85% of all investors wrong?  Could it be the power of advertising and greed?  What do I mean when I say a high percentage of investors have it all wrong?  Simple!  The majority of investors build their portfolios by selecting individual stocks.  While we do not find fault with investors who want to add a few highly selected … [Read More...]

300 Level

QPP Analysis of Actively Managed Mutual Fund Portfolio

Actively Managed Mutual Fund Portfolio The following QPP analysis is one where the portfolio is made up of actively managed mutual funds.  Long-time readers know my opinion about such funds, even though I used them throughout my teaching career.  It was a mistake.  Data was missing for JVLAX so I lumped the money market funds and the percentage (9.54%) held in JVLAX into … [Read More...]

Hedging the Simple Seven ETF Portfolio

In the last blog entry yesterday, I proposed a simple seven ETF portfolio that generated a Return/Uncertainty ratio of 0.57.  This is very close to our baseline of something greater than 0.60.  In the following portfolio, assume one sold off the 10% holding in VTI and shifted those assets over to the ultra-short SDS ETF.  There needs to be some reason for making the shift, but for … [Read More...]

200 Level

Portfolio Construction Using David Swensen Percentage Guidelines

David Swensen writes in his "Unconventional Success" book, "Construction of a financial-asset portfolio involves full measures of science and art.  The science encompasses the application of basic investment principles to the problem of combining core asset classes in an efficient, cost-effective manner.  The art concerns the use of common-sense judgment in the challenge … [Read More...]

Portfolio Performance Update: 24 February 2012

What a dull market this week.  Several of the portfolios experienced no changes across the board.  In many cases the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) values dropped 0.1% point on an absolute scale.  When measured against the ITA Index, four portfolios remained the same, five lost a small percentage and two gained a small percentage.  Small changes occurred with respect to the IRR … [Read More...]

400 Level

Bullish Percent Indicators: 3 November 2012

A few more changes developed this past week in both index and sector Bullish Percent Indicators.  In some cases the market strengthened while in others it weakened.  As you look over the tables, ask yourself if you see any particular trends. … [Read More...]

VTI PnF Graph

If the market holds or rises from this point, VTI will not be sold out of any portfolios.  That decision is according to the ITA Risk Reduction model rules.  With this in mind, what is the Point and Figure (PnF) graph of VTI telling us?  I expect PnF graphs are new to most readers and I am no expert, as mentioned in a prior blog post.  So we will ease into this topic.  … [Read More...]