100 Level

Top 12 Investment Books: A Revised List

Are you looking for high quality investment books?  If so, I have a new list of twelve (12) books to read.  Platinum members are familiar with many of these books as they show up on several lists by going to All Categories and clicking on Books. It is always difficult to hone down the list to as few as 12 books.  There are at least three more I could have easily listed. Other … [Read More...]

Bullish Percent Indicator Update

In the Bullish Percent Indicator data table below, I want to draw your attention to several features.  1) Look at the latest data in the 06/01/12 row.  The left-hand number, 46.62, is the most important as that indicates the percent of stocks in the NYSE that are generating a bullish PnF graph. [Next time I will include the headers or titles in the screen shot.]  That percent … [Read More...]

300 Level

Setting Constraints For Asset Classes and Individual Securities

In a recent blog I mentioned the importance of setting constraints on particular parts of the portfolio.  In this blog I'll go into more depth as to what I do when it comes to setting asset class and individual security constraints.  The reason for setting any constraints is to keep the optimizer in check so it does not run wild and create a nonsense portfolio.  The general idea is to provide some … [Read More...]

Avoid Losses

There is nothing quite so painful to the long-term investor as watching their portfolio experience a long and precipitous decline. Most of us experienced this in 2000 through 2002 and again in 2008 and early 2009. Diversification did not help all that much in the recent severe bear market. Asset allocation, no matter how carefully designed, did not perform as we expected. All asset classes seemed … [Read More...]

200 Level

Portfolio Performance: 11 November 2011

Portfolios tracked using Captool are updated through 10/31/2011, and portfolios tracked using the TLH Spreadsheet software are current through 11/11/2011.  Not all dividends posted on 11/07 are included in all portfolios so a few of the accounts may be performing a tad higher than recorded.  In general, most of the portfolios lost a little ground with respect to the VTSMX and most … [Read More...]

An Optimized 18 ETF Sample Portfolio

In response to concerns over the allocations to specific ETFs shown in the "Maximize Return/Risk" sample portfolio, below is an optimized revision.  Removed are the individual stocks as they always require an additional layer of complex analysis.  In their place I added VFH, the financial sector ETF that is currently showing a buy based on "Delta Factor" analysis.  I also replaced GLD with another … [Read More...]

400 Level

Examining Equity Markets Using the “Delta Factor”

Read this article as it supports the findings of the "Delta Factor" probability projections shown below.  To learn more about the Gordon Equation, search that term on this blog. Which equity ETFs have the greatest probability of doing well over the next six to twelve months?  The following analysis looks at both a three- and five-year history of a variety of equity ETFs.  … [Read More...]

Reviewing RSI and PnF Technical Indicators

Checking RSI and PnF Graphs Periodically I'll go through the ETFs held in most of the ITA Wealth Management portfolios and give each a visual technical check.  This examination is nothing more than a quick performance look of the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) and the Point and Figure (PnF) graphs.  In the two links I use VWO as the example ETF. … [Read More...]