100 Level

Latest Bullish Percent Indicators

Readers looking for the latest Bullish Percent Indicators will find them at this site.  These results simply underline what I've been saying for weeks - this is an overbought market.  One of the ways to protect capital is to implement the ITA Risk Reduction model or simply go to cash at some point when the market backs off these high levels.  That is an extremely difficult call to make.  I'm … [Read More...]

ETFs As Market Predictors

While our focus is on the long-term rather than market timing, it still makes sense to pay attention to market action.  This article is one I thought readers would find interesting.  In addition to following RSP and IYT, I recommend Platinum members also track VTI, Vanguard's total U.S. equities market and VT, Vanguard's Total World equities market. … [Read More...]

300 Level

Merging The Swensen And Faber Portfolios

Swensen and Faber-Richardson Portfolios Merging the Swensen and Faber-Richardson portfolios is an effort to extract the excellent logic behind the "Swensen Six" portfolio and expand the number of asset classes as advocated in the "Faber-Richardson Ten" portfolio.  Parts of the logic behind the "Swensen Six" can be found in this Seeking Alpha article.  In … [Read More...]

Highly Selected Stocks

One of my data sources changed their format and the changes eliminated information I use in my "Watch List" spreadsheet.  Unless I am able to find that data, I will need to change the makeup of my "Creme List."  For investors who use a few individual stocks in their portfolios, I will continue to post a list of interesting companies.  It will differ from the old … [Read More...]

200 Level

Active vs. Passive Investing: Part 12

This is the last in a series of 12 blog posts where I rebut the Active vs. Passive Investing paper.  Section Twelve (12) of the paper contains is a very clever argument.  The conclusion is that retail investors outperform the market.  However, arguments are not the same as evidence.  Nevertheless, here is the argument. If you accept the measurement of passive returns to … [Read More...]

Basic Financial Principles To Consider When Building A Portfolio

Basic financial principles to consider when building a portfolio include the following. Diversity across global markets Orientation toward equity or growth Inflation protection Low correlated assets Diversity across global markets will include both developed international markets and emerging markets.  To provide the necessary growth for retirement, the portfolio will need … [Read More...]

400 Level

Positioning the Maxwell, Euclid, and Madison

In preparation to launch the ITA Risk Reduction model for the Maxwell, Euclid, Madison, and possibly one or two more portfolios, the basic asset allocation is laid out below.  SDS is shown only as a possibility in unusual circumstances.  The percentages as shown apply only when the ETF price lies above its 195-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).  Such is not the case right now as … [Read More...]

ITA Risk Reduction Update

Photograph: One of the "Painted Ladies" in Eureka, California The broad market is taking a 3.5% hit today, not a trivial move to the downside.  Those of you following the ITA Risk Reduction (ITARR) model now have the opportunity to see the benefits in action.  While we are not fully employed with this model, holding off with VEU and VWO purchases worked quite well as both ETFs … [Read More...]