100 Level

15-Stock Diversification Myth

Diversification Myth Debunked   How many stocks does it take to eliminate portfolio risk?  The number 12 to 15 often crops up.  If that is too few, then maybe 20 to 30 will do.  This number has also come under fire, particularly in a world economy where U.S. companies no longer make up the majority of available companies and our economy is shrinking as a percentage of the … [Read More...]

Rule #5 of Investing

When we get to Rule #5, we assume a savings plan is in place and we have converted a frivolous spending habit into real dollars. Credit card debt is zero or in decline. After much reading and study, we are convinced of the importance of asset allocation. If you made it this far as a reader, you are in the process of escaping the “dark side” of investing and that is, you are no longer … [Read More...]

300 Level

Eight Asset Porfolio

Photograph: When I first walked Devastation Trail in late 1961 or early 1962, there was no vegetation to be seen as it was soon after the eruption. Consider the following portfolio that holds eight assets including cash.  In this analysis, I am using the 20-year treasury ETF, TLT, to represent cash, a substitution that gives the portfolio a slight boost over current money market rates.  … [Read More...]

Preparing for the Kenilworth Review

Tomorrow, the Kenilworth Portfolio is up for review and the following data indicates the portfolio can use some tweaking.  We first examine the Efficient Frontier graph and then check what options might be available to increase the Return/Risk ratio. Efficient Frontier:  Looking at the Efficient Frontier graph the desire is to push the current portfolio (diamond dot) up the EF graph toward the … [Read More...]

200 Level

Smartest Low-Medium Risk Portfolio

With this low-medium risk portfolio we move up one notch in aggressiveness. This is still a very conservative portfolio with 60% committed to the bond/income asset class. Moving from 80% in bonds down to 60% brings about an increase in both projected return and projected uncertainty.  The Return/Uncertainty ratio is still a respectable 0.62. Platinum membership is available for a low $5.00 … [Read More...]

Portfolio Performance: 28 January 2011

Portfolio performance and risk is what it is all about, and here are the results as of 1/28/2011.  Nearly all portfolios gained on either the ITA Index or VTSMX benchmarks.  Several portfolios also showed improvement in the Sortino and Retirement Ratios.  Since today is the last business day of January, all portfolios will be updated by this coming weekend.  Platinum members … [Read More...]

400 Level

Optimization-Momentum Recommendations For Kepler

As promised here are the optimization-momentum recommendations for the Kepler Portfolio.  We first begin with the Efficient Frontier and see that the current portfolio, after the recent transactions, is moving closer to the optimized portfolio. Efficient Frontier:  The current portfolio is represented by the yellow diamond box and the optimized portfolio by the small red dot.  The recent … [Read More...]

Bullish Percent Indicators Are Not Calling For a Panic

Regardless of the "fiscal cliff" problems, the Bullish Percent Indicators for both the broad indexes and individual sectors are not showing any signs of a panic or sell-off.  There are even pockets of strength as Platinum members will see in the following slides. The following material is not available for publication elsewhere on the Internet. … [Read More...]