100 Level

Sixteen Asset Classes: The Basic Portfolio

More Asset Classes Are Not Enough TLH Spreadsheet users are familiar with the sixteen (cash is excluded) asset classes used with most of the larger ITA Wealth Management portfolios.  Below is what I call the Basic Portfolio as standard ETFs are used to populate the different asset classes. Despite all the asset classes being populated with nearly equal percentages, there is something … [Read More...]

Portfolio Uncertainty: Pay Close Attention

"If the physical world is so uncertain, so difficult to know precisely, then how much more uncertain and unknowable must be the world of money?  Finance is a black box covered by a veil." - Benoit Mandelbrot It almost goes with out saying - investors pay more attention to return than they do to risk or portfolio volatility.  At least this is the case until a bear market strikes as it did in … [Read More...]

300 Level

Bohr QPP Projections

Using current ETF percentages held in the Bohr Portfolio, what are the Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) projections indicating for the next several months?  The S&P 500 is assumed to grow at 7.0% over the next year.  In the prior blog post, I showed the Efficient Frontier graph, and it presents a somewhat defensive portfolio.  This QPP projection shows much the same expectation going … [Read More...]

Feynman Portfolio Study: Part 6-6

In Part 6-6 I continue the Risk Management theme by applying the SHY momentum filter to the "Classic" 50% US Equity/50% US Bond Feynman Portfolio introduced in Part 4 of the Study. The performance of this portfolio is compared with the performance of the same portfolio with a 195 day EMA (ITARR) Filter (Part 6-2, Section 6.1.6) and with the "Dynamic" Feynman Portfolio with SHY Momentum Filter … [Read More...]

200 Level

Asset Allocation and Benchmarking Portfolio

A few days ago I read the following comment.  I did not question the reasoning behind this statement.  "Calculating return is relatively pointless if you are investing in indices." While the point of not calculating the portfolio return may make sense for the investor who selects one or two broad index funds for their complete portfolio, it lacks sound reasoning for … [Read More...]

Five Investing Tips to Launch a Successful Retirement Program

Five money hints below will put you on the road to financial success. Follow "The Golden Rule of Investing." Save as much as you can as early as you can. Live below your means.  Learn self-discipline and stop spending on trivial material goods. Avoid Credit Card debt as it will kill your chances of success. Invest in index funds or index ETFs.  Many … [Read More...]

400 Level

Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio

Risk-Parity Look at Permanent Portfolio Much is written about Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio, particularly since it held up well during the "Black Swan" markets of the early 21st century.  Below is a look at the equal allocation plan as advocated by Browne, and a Risk-Parity examination of the same four asset classes.  Both the equal allocation and Risk-Parity … [Read More...]

VNQ: A Look At The Technical Indicators

Vanguard's REIT ETF, VNQ, is part of every portfolio I track and due to its importance merits close attention. I track a number of technical indicators for each ETF in the portfolios and here are a few of them. One of the first metrics I examine is my own "Delta Factor" which is a reversion-to-the-mean projection of how well an ETF is expected to perform with respect to the broad … [Read More...]