100 Level

Stock Picking: Why It Is So Difficult To Be Successful

Shortly before the editor to the old blog collapsed, I posted this entry and I want readers to be sure to see it. Are you tracking the performance of your portfolio and measuring the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) with respect to the IRR of an appropriate benchmark? If not, why not? Investors not engaged in this level of measurement will likely find this discussion of little use. Shall we say, … [Read More...]

Sample Stock Oriented Portfolio: A QPP Analysis

The following portfolio was submitted by a Platinum member for analysis.  The first look is a Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) analysis of the holdings.  This is not the exact portfolio as I use IEF as a cash equivalent.  The portfolio actually holds a number of annuities so the yield is likely higher than the 2.64% shown in this analysis. QPP Analysis of Sample Portfolio:  MPC does not have a … [Read More...]

300 Level

Hedging the Simple Seven ETF Portfolio

In the last blog entry yesterday, I proposed a simple seven ETF portfolio that generated a Return/Uncertainty ratio of 0.57.  This is very close to our baseline of something greater than 0.60.  In the following portfolio, assume one sold off the 10% holding in VTI and shifted those assets over to the ultra-short SDS ETF.  There needs to be some reason for making the shift, but for … [Read More...]

“Creme List” for 5/13/2011

This week the "Creme List' saw one new stock enter the elite list and none were removed.  As you can see, ABT is back on top, but this time it does not carry a Buy signal.  In fact, no companies are fairly priced.  This is not unexpected considering the high level of the market.  … [Read More...]

200 Level

Portfolio Development: Thinking Through First Steps

Several readers have been asking for advice as to which portfolio to follow and is there any philosophy behind the different portfolios?  The portfolios are owned by many different individuals so the portfolios are designed with those investors in mind.  I have had a major role in the Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) plans of each.  Individual investors differ in their income and … [Read More...]

Swensen Portfolio Plus Dividend ETF VIG

As suggested by one reader, I removed the individual stocks from the Swensen-Six Portfolio and added VIG, a dividend oriented ETF.  Below is the Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) analysis, correlation matrix, and "Delta Factor" projections when using five years of historical data.  One big advantage of using VIG instead of several individual stocks is one of simplicity.  … [Read More...]

400 Level

Retirement Ratio: Building a Higher Standard

The Ultimate Return/Uncertainty Ratio Built into every TLH spreadsheet is the "Retirement Ratio," a look-alike of the Sortino Ratio (SR).  Readers can read about this Return/Uncertainty ratio over on Seeking Alpha.  Inside the Sortino Ratio is a trademark term, Desired Target Return™, a percentage determined by the investor.  In the Retirement Ratio we use Portfolio … [Read More...]

Bullish Percent Indicators: Further Market Weakness Beginning To Appear

Bullish Percent Indicators (BPI) are Point and Figure graphs we use to view overall market movements from week to week.  Not only do these indicators provide general market movements based on percentage changes, but the actual values tell us if the market is under valued, fairly valued, or over valued.  The bull market is cooling off based on BPI values and this is why investors need to be paying … [Read More...]