100 Level

MACD Defined

Yesterday, I wrote a piece on "Sell in May and Go Away," Sy Harding's Seasonal Timing Strategy (STS).  Built into that strategy is something called MACD.  MACD is an acronym for "Moving Average Convergence-Divergence" Trading Method.  I first read about MACD back in 1979 when Gerald Appel published a pamphlet under the same title. In that 22 page pamphlet he … [Read More...]

Solving Investment Problem #5: It is too late to start saving.

Balderdash!  It is never too late to begin saving for retirement.  Yes, it is preferred to follow "The Golden Rule of Investing" and start saving as early as possible, but it is never to late to begin.  Let me illustrate with a short story. I know of one family that had almost no savings by age 57.  The house was paid in full, but savings for retirement were close to … [Read More...]

300 Level

“Creme List” For 27 May 2011

Top Stocks Platinum members can view the "Creme List" of stocks for 5/27/2011.  Stocks removed from the list this week are:  CVS, EXPD, CHKP, and SPLS.  It is unusual to see so many excised in the same week. No new companies were added to the list and an old favorite recaptured the top position.  Note that only two stocks are priced to buy. … [Read More...]

Risk Adjusted vs. Capitalization Asset Allocation Portfolio Construction

Is it better to construct a portfolio based on allocating assets around capitalization divisions or is one better off using a risk adjusted platform?  The following two screen shots show the details of these two approaches to portfolio construction.  In each case I am using ten ETFs that provide worldwide diversity.  Four years of historical data goes into the following Quantext … [Read More...]

200 Level

Retirement Analysis: What Must Be Done To Avoid Retirement Poverty

As promised, here is the Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) retirement analysis using the Kenilworth Portfolio as an example.  The first screen shot shows the assumptions involved in the analysis.  The second slide is familiar to Platinum readers as it lays out the investments and percentage in each.  The third slide is the scary one as it presents the grim details or the … [Read More...]

Portfolio Performance Update

This week ended on a strong note with the broad market VTI up over 2% on the day.  However, that move was insufficient to pull the Maxwell and Euclid portfolios into positive territory. Portfolios available to Platinum members continue to do well when measured against the VTSMX benchmark. Only the Kenilworth is lagging and those numbers are exaggerated due to the short period this … [Read More...]

400 Level

Seasonal Timing Strategy Update

Now that May is not far away articles and blog posts are springing up around the adage:  "Sell in May and go play" or "Sell in May and go away."  That is, play or stay out of the market until after Halloween.  I've written about this seasonal timing model myself, but is there anything to it?  After all, is the market not efficient?  If you Google Seasonal Timing Strategy a long list of articles … [Read More...]

Market Watchers Pay Attention

Technical Analysis: StockChart Graphs ITA Wealth Management readers know I am not a market timer.  Nevertheless, one should not be oblivious to market movements, particularly when cash is sitting on the sideline.  When is a good time to start investing that cash?  Possible technical signals are shown below.  As I update my "Watch List" I will post the percentages of … [Read More...]