100 Level

Technical Indicator Check

A few days ago several ETFs approached the 70% line on the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) graph.  This evening I ran a quick check of all the major ETFs held in the various portfolios to see where current RSI values were positioned, knowing we had a few down days in the market.  As expected, the RSI graphs are in retreat. The market retreat means we can postpone any thought of … [Read More...]

New E-Books From William J. Bernstein

Do you desire a fresh infusion of investment information from William J. Bernstein?  If so, here is the way to obtain his latest writings.  First, go to his Efficient Frontier web site and read "The Ages of the Investor."  If his brief introduction appeals to you, then whip over to Amazon and download into your Kindle (or other formats) his latest writing.  Here is a sample of what to expect from … [Read More...]

300 Level

Dividend Stocks For Mosaic Investors

Mosaic investors are those individuals who build their portfolios around a core of index ETFs, but choose to "spike" their portfolio with a few individual stocks. The following material is not available for publication elsewhere on the Internet. … [Read More...]

TLH Spreadsheet Hint

Photograph: Colter The following video/audio clip is a small hint of how to avoid the manual update on the Holdings spreadsheet.  Users of the TLH spreadsheet will find this hint useful. … [Read More...]

200 Level

Hedging the Simple Seven ETF Portfolio

In the last blog entry yesterday, I proposed a simple seven ETF portfolio that generated a Return/Uncertainty ratio of 0.57.  This is very close to our baseline of something greater than 0.60.  In the following portfolio, assume one sold off the 10% holding in VTI and shifted those assets over to the ultra-short SDS ETF.  There needs to be some reason for making the shift, but for … [Read More...]

Harold Evensky’s Definition of Active and Passive Portfolio Management

Debating which investing style, passive or active, is the superior method is unlikely to end soon. The research is too conflicting and exceptions still exist. The difference of opinion has a long and acrimonious history – and it continues to this day. Before we enter the debate and provide some opinions, it is important to define what is meant by passive and active. A third investing style, the … [Read More...]

400 Level

Changing Positions of Maxwell and Kepler

Photograph: Covered Bridge at Grist Mill just east of Woodland, Washington One of the five ITA Risk Reduction (ITARR) model portfolios is the Maxwell.  Last Friday several asset classes, as represented by particular ETFs, dropped below the critical 195-Day EMA trigger point.  Trailing Stop Loss Orders were set and today, May 8th, a number were triggered.  Shares of VEU and VWO were … [Read More...]

Equity ETF “Delta Factor” Projections: Three & Five Years

What are the projections for Equity ETFs using three and five years of historical data?  The projections based on five-years of historical data spans the "Great Recession of 2008" while the three-years of historical data includes one of the better bull markets of recent memory.  With this historical context, we can almost visualize the projections for the following "Delta Factor" data tables.  … [Read More...]