100 Level

Why I Am Bearish On Bonds

In a comment last week I hinted that I had some new information as it related to bonds, TIPs, and treasuries (TLT).  Here is my reasoning why I continue to be bearish on bonds. This information is not available for publication elsewhere on the internet. … [Read More...]

Retirement Mistake #4: Overestimating Portfolio Return

Historically, the U.S. Stock Market has returned about 7% annually in excess of inflation.  Is this likely to continue?  Real earnings come from dividends, dividend growth, and P/E expansion.  Projecting future returns to match the historical level, which included one of the longest bull markets from August of 1982 through March of 2000 is not likely to be duplicated in the near future.  Further, … [Read More...]

300 Level

Portfolio #3: Ages 36 – 55

This may be the most difficult portfolio, of the five in this series, to construct for several reasons.  1) It covers a significant working and investing period.  2) The early years of investing from ages 36 - 55 are critical so one does not want to give up too much in the way of return.  However, the portfolio cannot be too aggressive during the tail end of this age bracket as the … [Read More...]

Twelve ETF Portfolio

When designing a portfolio several goals need to be considered.  Here is a blueprint for portfolio construction. Build the portfolio using non=managed ETFs and index funds.  Don't over complicate by using too many ETFs. Keep costs low by using inexpensive ETFs.  For most investments we use Vanguard ETFs. When running a QPP analysis, set these standards. Projected … [Read More...]

200 Level

Rethinking Asset Allocation

One of the primary reasons for developing a well-diversified portfolio is to reduce risk.  This blog will focus primarily on the U.S. Equities portion of the portfolio as we still recognize the importance of including emerging markets, bonds, international real estate, etc.  The question to be analyzed is whether or not to include all "Big Nine" asset classes or can we do as well if the number of … [Read More...]

Ranking Vanguard’s Sector ETFs

One of the portfolios up for review this week is the Gauss.  In preparation for that update I'm looking for ways to improve the performance of this portfolio as it still lags the VTSMX benchmark.  I thought I would rank the Vanguard sector ETFs (minus VNQ) to see if there are any potential "momentum" ETFs among this group.  Below is the latest ranking. Sector Rankings:  The financial (VFH) ETF … [Read More...]

400 Level

Bullish Percent Indicators Continue To Show Market Weakness

Last week the Bullish Percent Indicators (BPI) began to show cracks.  This week those cracks opened up further, but not to crevasse proportions.  There was one exception within sectors as you will see below. This material is not available for publication elsewhere on the Internet. … [Read More...]

Suppose Today Was October 2nd

Suppose this was October 2nd instead of September 2nd and the alert is on for the Maxwell and Euclid portfolios.  It is time to fire up the StockCharts graphs for VTI, VEU, VWO, VNQ, and RWX.  Assume we are always going to include TLT and TIP in the portfolio.  Using VNQ as showing in the graph below, how do we interpret what move to make, assuming we were out of the market with … [Read More...]