100 Level

Basic Portfolio Plus

Building on the five basic asset classes, I made a few substitutions and added more asset classes.  Platinum members can see this portfolio enhanced the Basic Five.  I show both the correlation matrix and the projected return and uncertainty values.  A few of the assumptions were altered as articulated below. … [Read More...]

Portfolio of Actively Managed Mutual Funds

The following Quantext Portfolio Analysis contains actively managed mutual funds and the portfolio is designed for a 40-50 year old investor.  Keep in mind a few assumptions and expectations.  1) In this analysis the S&P 500 is assumed to grow at 7.0% over the next few years.  2) When putting together an array of securities we expect the projection will exceed 7.0% by 100 basis points.  3) The … [Read More...]

300 Level

Madison Portfolio Update: 24 October 2012

Nearly all asset classes are in balance and the ETFs are still priced above their 195-Day Exponential Moving Averages, so this portfolio will not need attention for another month.  The commodity, DBC, dropped below the 195-Day EMA, but I do not hold that commodity in this portfolio. … [Read More...]

Alternative Number One Portfolio

Photograph: Arch in St. Louis - captured by Tom Bishop of Denver. In the following portfolio, slight adjustments are introduced.  First, I made the correction of using VO instead of VOE.  EXCEL™ automatically filled in the "E" when I intended to use the mid-cap blend ETF, VO.  In this allocation arrangement, U.S. Fixed Income, BND, is reduced from 17% to 12%.  … [Read More...]

200 Level

ITA Portfolio Performance: 26 May 2012

While the individual portfolios increased in value this week, nearly all lost ground with respect to both the ITA Index and VTSMX benchmarks.  That is to be expected any time the market moves up considering that many of the portfolios are out of a number of asset classes and in cash or other income generating instruments.  Portfolios such as the Curie, Newton, Schrodinger, Einstein and … [Read More...]

Retirement Mistake #5: Underestimating Life Expectancy

Not only are we living longer, but we are living healthier lives.  When planning for retirement, what age should one project as the end-of-life year?  When running out retirement projections using the Monte Carlo calculations within the Quantext Portfolio Planner software, I use 100 as the end-of-life year when testing the probability of running out of money.  There are many assumptions that go … [Read More...]

400 Level

Examining Critical Risk Reduction ETFs

This is examination day for the Maxwell Portfolio and the market is in a swoon.  A few minutes ago I look at the "Critical Eight" ETFs and they are: VTI, IWN, VEU, VWO, VNQ, RWX, DBC, and PCY.  All are still priced above their 195-Day EMA, but some are getting close to crossing the EMA line.  For this reason, I will be waiting for the market to close before I make any … [Read More...]

Post-Modern Portfolio Theory

Serious investors interested in digging deeper into the issue of portfolio risk management will find the article titled, Post-Modern Portfolio Theory of great interest. This link is bound to produce different references over time so here is a clue to finding the article. Google the term, “Post-Modern Portfolio Theory” and then look for the PDF article by the same name. The article is … [Read More...]