100 Level

Use of Leveraged ETFs

Leveraged ETFs are generally not a great investment for a long term investment since they do not necessarily behave as we might expect. One is a simple mathematical reason. Consider the 2 scenarios shown in the table below. The first scenario considers a stock that moves sideways by moving up 1% one day, down 1% the next and repeats this pattern. The second scenario is a bullish scenario where the … [Read More...]

$100,000 Starter Portfolio

For prospective investors just beginning a portfolio, here is a sample based on the Momentum-Optimization Model (MOM).  MOM is discussed elsewhere on this blog.  Just search to full title or MOM to find this material. We first begin with a ranking of all the securities we might consider for our holdings.  This includes approximately 30 ETFs.  Most are commission free to clients of … [Read More...]

300 Level

Mosaic Portfolio Lookback – 02 January 2008

Mosaic Portfolio Lookback What were the signals at the beginning of the year - 2008?  If one examines the QPP analysis below, times looked great. Projected return was 10.45% or about 3.5% points above that projected for the S&P 500.  Yes, the projected risk or uncertainty is a tad over 15%, but the Return/Uncertainty ratio is a very high 0.70.  This is almost unheard of, at … [Read More...]

Six “Mad Money” Stocks

Here are six stocks that qualify for "Mad Money" investments.  Do your own thorough research. These stocks are not for publication elsewhere. … [Read More...]

200 Level

Portfolio Performance Update – 5/6/2011

In the table below readers will find portfolio performance data for 20 portfolios.  Ten are tracked using Captool software and ten are monitored and managed using the TLH Spreadsheet.  The IR column is the Information Ratio value.  SR and RR are Sortino Ratio and Retirement Ratio respectively.  The higher the ratio value the better. Keep in mind that the May dividends for HYG, … [Read More...]

Portfolio Performance Data – 29 April 2011

While this was a good week for all portfolios in absolute terms, relatively speaking, nearly every portfolio lost ground to one or more of the benchmarks.  Advances from last week were essentially wiped out this week.  When the market is in a strong bull phase as is now the case, it is difficult for a broadly diversified portfolio to keep up with U.S. equities and that is what we saw … [Read More...]

400 Level

Portfolio Preparation for Euclid and Maxwell Portfolios

In preparation to activate the return-uncertainty plan for the two under performing portfolios, I set up several sell moves for each portfolio.  The first thing I did was to place trailing stop loss orders for each ETF now in the portfolio, but not part of the future plan.  Shares of VOE, VBR, VOT, VO, VTV, and VSS will be sold when the strike price is hit for each ETF. … [Read More...]

Bullish Percent Indicators: Mixed Reactions To Financial Cliff

While there were no major offensive-defensive shifts in the major indexes, there were a few changes within sectors of the market. The following data tables provide detailed information on the changes. Bullish Percent Indicators for Indexes: Both the NYSE and DJIA indexes improved numerically this past week although neither index showed sufficient strength to move from a defensive position to an … [Read More...]