100 Level

Solving Investment Problem #4: Fear of losing money.

The fear of losing money once it is invested in the stock market is quite natural.  Investing in the market from early 2000 through early 2009 was a particularly volatile period and not one to inspire investor confidence.  The alternatives to building adequate savings for retirement are limited.  Banks are paying zero to very little interest.  CDs are also generating low … [Read More...]

Fundamental Principles for Constructing a Portfolio

The "science" of portfolio construction requires numerous fundamental principles.  Long-term portfolios call for an orientation toward return or growth through proper diversification.  Growth needs to be tempered so as to handle times of recession, deflation, and inflation.  As described in the Harry Browne "Permanent Portfolio" one needs to prepare for the four stages of the market; prosperity, … [Read More...]

300 Level

Schrodinger Portfolio Review: Second Quarter Update

Nearly a month passed since I last updated the Schrodinger Portfolio, a passively managed investment fund.  This portfolio still holds a few ETFs that were purchased approximately ten years ago.  About the only changes in recent months has been the addition of dividends. I'm not too concerned about the three asset classes that are above target. When the political debate on the … [Read More...]

Smartest Low Risk Portfolio

This is the first of four portfolios that run from low risk to high risk or aggressive growth.  One Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) analysis is already available on the Internet at Seeking Alpha for a medium risk portfolio.  That is the fifth portfolio in this series of analysis.  In the following example, I make a few changes in the ETFs as I prefer using the low-cost Vanguard … [Read More...]

200 Level

Curie Portfolio Update

Three parts of the Curie Portfolio are presented below as this portfolio is reviewed.  First, is the all important Dashboard.  Examining the overall Strategic Asset Allocation plan is essential to see where the portfolio stands with respect to the broad plan.  Second, is the rebalancing data table shown in each TLH spreadsheet.  This is a relatively new feature in the TLH as it … [Read More...]

Are You Ready for Retirement? Most Americans Are Not Prepared

The Encore section of the January 14 Wall Street Journal points out that many people are behind on their preparations for retirement. 67% of workers say they are behind schedule in planning and saving for retirement.  These folks violated The Golden Rule of Investing. One 58% of works say they or their spouse are currently saving for later life.  Perhaps the middle class has fallen so far … [Read More...]

400 Level

Position of Kenilworth Portfolio

This past Tuesday was "examination day" for the Kenilworth Portfolio. Several key asset class ETFs were priced above their 195-Day EMA so shares were purchased based on the Buy and Sell rules laid out in the ITA Risk Reduction model.  Two asset classes that did not make the "Buy" list were International REITs and Commodities.  Checking this morning, both RWX and DBC … [Read More...]

Stress Testing the Kepler Portfolio

Next week the Kepler Portfolio is up for review.  In advance of that update I am running what I call a "stress test" assuming this to be your retirement portfolio.  Given a set of assumptions laid out in the first slide, would this portfolio last through retirement? Here we have a 40 year-old who plans to retire in 2040 at age 68.  Having already saved $200,000 and planning to put away another … [Read More...]