100 Level

A Random Walk Down Wall Street: 10th Edition

Burton G. Malkiel's "Random Walk" Book Every investor should have "A Random Walk" on their bookshelf, ready to pull off, read, review, study, and read again.  Burton Malkiel gets it right.  Build the core of the portfolio using index funds or index ETFs.  If you want to sprinkle a few individual stocks into the mix, go ahead.  That is where the … [Read More...]

HDR Sunset Photograph

A few days ago I was on the Oregon Coast to view an art exhibit.  That evening, as the sun was setting, I set up my camera on a tripod to see what would happen if I tried to create a High Dynamic Range (HDR) photograph.  The sky was very clear so I knew the sunset would not be anything special.  To create this photograph I took three images, one over exposed, one under exposed, and … [Read More...]

300 Level

Walking Investors Through Kepler Review

We begin the review of Kepler by examining the Dashboard.  The Dashboard is one of the critical worksheets found inside the TLH Spreadsheet, our portfolio tracking software program.  From the slide below, we see several asset classes are out of balance and efforts to make adjustments based on information can be found later in this blog post. Kepler Dashboard:  Depending on the optimization that … [Read More...]

QPP Analysis of Current Schrodinger Asset Allocation: Part 2

Using the percentages allocated to the current holdings in the Schrodinger Portfolio, we have the following Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) analysis.  The current asset allocation plan both meets and misses our goals when it comes to setting up a portfolio.  As usual, the S&P 500 is assumed to grow at 7.0% annually.  This assumption is critical as it has a direct bearing on the projected … [Read More...]

200 Level

Super Smart Portfolios from Solin

Daniel Solin, in his "Smartest Portfolios" book, recommends these nine index funds or ETFs when putting together smart portfolios.  While my preference is to use ETFs instead of index mutual funds, here are his recommendations. … [Read More...]

Portfolio Performance Data: 22 July 2011

How did your portfolio perform this last week?  Did you gain in absolute terms but lose the relative race?  Well, that is what happened to most of the portfolios tracked using the TLH Spreadsheet.  We lost most of the ground gained last week when examining the VTSMX and ITA Index benchmarks.  Nearly all the portfolios showed a decline in both the Sortinio and Retirement … [Read More...]

400 Level

Examining “Delta Factor” for ETF Equities

Which ETFs show the highest probability of doing well over the next six to twelve months when compared to the VTSMX index fund?  The "Delta Factor" graph shown below provides a few clues. … [Read More...]

Market Conditions: Where Are We?

Technical Analysis of Broad Market In a recent article from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), one writer wrote the following. "I recommend that investors form a major market opinion first.  Is it a long-term bull market or bear market?  Bear markets should not deter investment, but being aware of them is important in order to determine how aggressive you … [Read More...]