100 Level

Grandchildren: Cut Credit Card Debt

Photograph: University of Glasgow in Scotland Grandchild suggestion #2 is another form of suggestion #1.  Avoid credit card debt.  Pay off the credit card debt every month. It makes no sense to be paying out interest in excess of 10% while investments are returning less than that percentage. Getting into credit card debt is a financial tar pit.  Stay out. … [Read More...]

Rethinking Asset Allocation

Keeping David Swensen's Strategic Asset Allocation model in mind, it is possible to use all seventeen asset classes available in the TLH Spreadsheet to fulfill his recommendations.  Platinum members will see how this is accomplished when the Gauss Portfolio is reviewed tomorrow.  Instead of using six ETFs as I showed in an earlier post, we will use many more, but still stick with … [Read More...]

300 Level

Retirement Portfolio: A Possible Asset Allocation

Beginning with 100 shares in each of 40 ETFs, the Efficient Frontier and Buy-Hold-Sell recommendations are presented for a portfolio with constraints set to tilt the asset allocation toward bonds and more conservative investments. This information is not available for publication elsewhere on the Internet. Efficient Frontier:  Allocating 100 shares to each ETF sets up a portfolio that is … [Read More...]

Top Core Stocks Analyzed Using QPP Plus Delta Factor Projections

Seeking top core stocks from investors who participate in the Growth Forum, the following analysis shows portfolio projections, the correlations within the portfolio, and the "Delta Stock" projections. QPP Analysis:  Nearly equal percentages are assigned to each stock.  The analysis spans five years and the S&P 500 is projected to grow 7.0% per year over the next few years.  Readers … [Read More...]

200 Level

Low Risk Retirement Portfolio

Yesterday, I wrote an article for Seeking Alpha and one reader suggested a simple portfolio where equal percentages be allocated to VTI, GLD, SHY, and TLT.  Exactly what does such a portfolio look like when a Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) analysis is applied?  What does the correlation matrix look like and would such a portfolio work as one prepares for retirement?  The following … [Read More...]

Asset Allocation: How Important Today?

Asset Allocation Due to a recent Ibbotson study (Unfortunately, this article now requires one to register.) asset allocation is not the investment elixir today it was thought to be in the late 1980s and 1990s. Nevertheless, it remains the best method for constructing portfolios if the goal is to outperform a broad market benchmark index such as the VTSMX or ITA Index* while reducing portfolio … [Read More...]

400 Level

Faber – Richardson “Ivy Model” Review

In response to a recent question, allow me to review the Faber - Richardson model as described in their book, "The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets."  The ITA Risk Reduction model focuses on the "Avoid Bear Markets" part of the Faber book. Here are the basic Faber - Richardson rules one can use with any portfolio.  Investors … [Read More...]

StockChart Graphs for Timing Model

Platinum members following the experimental approach to improving performance of the Maxwell and Euclid portfolios will want to become familiar with the StockChart graphs we will be using for our analysis.  Below is an example of the graphs for VTI, one of the primary holdings. In the top graph, note that the current price is well below the 195-Day EMA (green line).  The price closed at … [Read More...]