100 Level

Portfolio Development

Thinking Through Portfolio Construction Within the last few weeks I read a post on the Internet that I threw into my "fear bag."  The thesis of the post focused on Decision One as articulated by Goldie and Murray in their little book, "The Investment Answer."  The writer claimed the small investor was courting disaster if they managed their own money.   Readers … [Read More...]

The Efficient Market Hypothesis

Kurtis Hemmerling's article, "Do You Believe in The Efficient Markets Hypothesis Co-Out?" caught my eye and I am always interested in what other writers have to say about the Efficient Market Hypothesis.  Hemmerling writes the following. "If you choose to believe in the EMH, then you should simply invest in a broad market ETF such as one that tracks the S&P 500 (SPY), … [Read More...]

300 Level

Sample Portfolio Analysis: Part II

The following portfolio analysis makes use of the Hoadley-momentum-optimizer spreadsheet.  Providing a "cat-bird-seat" view of the portfolio is the efficient frontier graph.  We follow that with a ranking of the securities and finally, the Buy-Hold-Sell Recommendations.  Please note that the number of shares only represent percentages and is not a picture of the actual size of this … [Read More...]

Return and Risk Relationship

What is the relationship between return of a portfolio and the associated risk involved? Quoting from an “Active vs. Passive” paper I found in my files. “High potential returns always involve high potential risks. There are no low-risk/high-return investments. Investment risk comes in many forms but, to most investors, risk means the potential for losing investment capital and … [Read More...]

200 Level

The Simple Six Swensen Portfolio

Amid all the discussion of various technical indicators resides a simple six-asset portfolio advocated by David Swensen.  The six asset classes are: U.S. Equities, Developed International Markets, Emerging Markets, REITs, Treasury Bonds, and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities.  That's it.  Six ETFs will provide global coverage. The following slide shows the Quantext … [Read More...]

American Workers Unprepared

ITA Wealth Management is not so much a blog of how to make money as it is a blog to help investors achieve retirement goals.  According to recent Department of Labor statistics on retirement sufficiency, U.S. workers retiring in the 2050s will have saved only enough in their 401(k) accounts to replace an average of 22% of their pre-retirement income.  What is staggering is that 37% will have no … [Read More...]

400 Level

Bullish Percent Index Update: 9 August 2013

Each week readers are treated to a broad look at major U.S. markets as well as sectors of the equities market.  This week shows slight declines in the major markets, but not sufficient to turn the ball over to defensive teams.  All the major markets remain sufficiently positive to record X's in the right-hand column of the Point and Figure graphs.  Examine both tables below for detailed … [Read More...]

Are There Any Buys Remaining In The Equity Market?

What opportunities remain, if any, in the equities (stocks) as this market continues at a high level?  While the follow are only projections, it appears as if we are not at a market inflection point.  Nevertheless, the probability of strong growth over the next few months does not look positive. … [Read More...]