100 Level

Delta Factor After 400 Point Drop

ITA Wealth Management readers likely want to know what the Delta and Delta Factor projections are indicating after the 400 point drop yesterday.  The buying trend has started, although we still could be early in the cycle.  The reason I think we may be early is that it is not unusual for the Delta Factor to make projections a few months early.  Two time ranges are shown in the … [Read More...]

Starting From Scratch: The Logic Behind the “Swensen Six” Portfolio

When it comes to building a portfolio, David Swensen's general guidelines provide numerous strong starting points.  His portfolio satisfies requirements of numerical diversification, equity orientation, and functional diversification.  While Swensen does not recommend specific tickers in his book, Unconventional Success, he lays out basic guidelines I consider vital to portfolio … [Read More...]

300 Level

“Creme List” for 29 July 2011

Photograph:  Santiago, Spain (Represents current feelings in America) This week the "Creme List" is a shorter group of stocks with only 18 companies surviving the weak market.  AGL, CL, TOT, and WFC were wiped from the list as none of these companies cracked the elite list for the last 13 weeks. … [Read More...]

Asset Allocation: Why Select This Mix of ETFs?

Gauss is the newest portfolio launched (12/27/2011) here at ITA Wealth Management.  While the annualized performance is a respectable 25%, it still lags both the VTSMX and ITA Index benchmarks as it took time to populate all fifteen equity and bond asset classes.  The broad market was in a positive mood during the launch phase and as a result, the portfolio fell behind the … [Read More...]

200 Level

Alternative Investment Vehicles to Suggested Index Funds

What are the alternatives one might use to those suggested by Solin in his recent book, "The Smartest Portfolio You'll Ever Own."  The reason for seeking alternative investments is two fold.  1)  We seek ETFs that have historical records of at least three years.  This is so we can run Quantext Portfolio Analysis (QPP) on the portfolios.  2)  When … [Read More...]

Hedging the Simple Seven ETF Portfolio

In the last blog entry yesterday, I proposed a simple seven ETF portfolio that generated a Return/Uncertainty ratio of 0.57.  This is very close to our baseline of something greater than 0.60.  In the following portfolio, assume one sold off the 10% holding in VTI and shifted those assets over to the ultra-short SDS ETF.  There needs to be some reason for making the shift, but for … [Read More...]

400 Level

ETF Evaluations In Preparation for Euclid Risk Reduction Analysis

At the close of the market tomorrow (1/12/2012) I will examine the relative price of each ETF used in Euclid and compare it with its 195-Day EMA.  For example, in the slide shot below the price of VTI is well above its 195-Day EMA.  The ITA Risk Reduction model calls for holding a full position in VTI.  Checking the Euclid moments ago, Large-Cap Blend (VTI) is slightly over target … [Read More...]

Risk-Parity Portfolio: What Is It And What Does A Risk Portfolio Look Like?

Reducing Risk Through Risk-Parity Risk-Parity: Have you heard of the term or seen reference to this style of portfolio construction?  Join the crowd if this is new to you, even though the Risk-Parity idea has been around for quite a few years.  Risk-Parity is an alternative approach to portfolio construction where assets are allocated based on risk rather than allocation according to … [Read More...]