100 Level

New Portfolio Study Available

ITA Wealth Management readers and subscribers who are a tad lax in keeping up with all the posts on this blog may have missed the significant beginning entries on the Feynman Portfolio Study.  To catch up just go to the right-hand sidebar and under the Categories pull-down menu, select Feynman Portfolio.  This will take you to the articles on this analysis, beginning with the first one. Do to … [Read More...]

Risk Defined

Portfolio Risk Risk is a messy word as it carries so many different meanings in the investing world.  In the most general sense, it means we don't know what is going to happen.  Here are several specific meanings of the term.  We will begin by defining "systematic" and "specific" risk. 1.  "Systematic" risk is risk we cannot avoid if we seek returns higher than the interest rates from a money … [Read More...]

300 Level

Mosaic Portfolio Lookback – June 30, 2008

June 30 of 2008 was a period when the market was in a deep funk, and sinking.  In the following analysis we put the Mosaic Portfolio in that situation and analyze it, now knowing what happened.  What were the signals at that time?  Since the end of the first quarter, the projected return dropped slightly and the Return/Uncertainty ratio declined.  The diversification percentage … [Read More...]

Asset Allocation for Small Global Portfolios

If your portfolio is small and yet you want global diversification, this portfolio is one to consider.  This six asset class portfolio is built around asset allocation guidelines laid out by David Swensen in his book, "Unconventional Success."  Thirty percent of the portfolio is allocated to U.S. Treasury Bonds (TLT) and TIPs (TIP).  Domestic REITs are covered with the VNQ … [Read More...]

200 Level

Portfolio Performance – 20 August 2010

For some reason, I expected to see greater decline in the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) values this week.  In a number of cases, the portfolios picked up a little ground on the performance of the VTSMX. Obviously, this is due to the broad diversity of the asset classes held in the portfolios. In a few cases, the ITA Index increased significantly and that is due to the addition of … [Read More...]

8 Dividend Stocks Supercharge the Swensen-Six Portfolio

Eight dividend aristocrats added to the "Swensen-Six" Portfolio boost return, increase yield, without doing extensive damage to the portfolio volatility. The following screen-shots show the original "Swensen" portfolio, a supercharged version, the correlation matrix for the supercharged portfolio, and the "Delta Factor" projections for the supercharged portfolio when … [Read More...]

400 Level

Condition of Critical ETFs and The ITA Risk Reduction Model

When a portfolio is coming up for ITARR review or examination, I begin to check on the eight critical ETFs used to populate the portfolio.  Those eight ETFs are: VTI, IWN, VEU, VWO, VNQ, RWX, DBC, and PCY.  The next move is to activate SharpCharts to see where the price of the ETF is positioned with respect to the 195-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).  If nothing changes over … [Read More...]

Bullish Percent Indicators: Mixed Reactions To Financial Cliff

While there were no major offensive-defensive shifts in the major indexes, there were a few changes within sectors of the market. The following data tables provide detailed information on the changes. Bullish Percent Indicators for Indexes: Both the NYSE and DJIA indexes improved numerically this past week although neither index showed sufficient strength to move from a defensive position to an … [Read More...]