100 Level

Easy Investing

While few stock pickers are successful investors, the index investor or a passive oriented investor can do better than the majority of stock market participants by following a few simple rules.  One of those rules is simply - Don't build your portfolio by picking individual stocks.  Use index funds or index ETFs.  Investors saving small amounts of money each month are better off … [Read More...]

Low Risk Retirement Portfolio

Yesterday, I wrote an article for Seeking Alpha and one reader suggested a simple portfolio where equal percentages be allocated to VTI, GLD, SHY, and TLT.  Exactly what does such a portfolio look like when a Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) analysis is applied?  What does the correlation matrix look like and would such a portfolio work as one prepares for retirement?  The following … [Read More...]

300 Level

The Return/Uncertainty Ratio

Formerly, the title of this post would have been the Return/Risk Ratio.  However, Risk carries many meanings so I am switching to Uncertainty to describe portfolio volatility.  The whole notion of Return/Uncertainty is at the forefront of my thinking today since this is the end of the first quarter for 2011.  Platinum members using the TLH spreadsheet will need to update the SR … [Read More...]

Beyond the Sortino Ratio

      This article was published two years ago, but most readers missed it.  That is why I am bringing it forward again, with a few edits. Frank Sortino begins Chapter 3 of his "The Sortino Framework..." book with this sentence. "This chapter begins with the development of the Sortino ratio and why I discarded it for the upside potential ratio and Desired … [Read More...]

200 Level

Portfolio Performance Results: 14 October 2011

Large-cap stocks continue to lead the market so portfolios diversified into the international markets lagged the VTSMX.  This is the trend over the last few weeks.  While many of the portfolios tracked by the TLH Spreadsheet gained a little ground on the Retirement Ratio, most lost out to the VTSMX benchmark.  Those readers who have been following basic ETFs using StockCharts can … [Read More...]

Portfolio Performance: 30 September 2011

Third Quarter Portfolio Performance Results* Finally - the bum third quarter is finished.  Done and over!  Every portfolio gave some ground to the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) calculation.  Rare is the portfolio that performed well during the recent volatile market.  In the table below, the figures are a little lower than the actual values as I have yet to enter any third … [Read More...]

400 Level

Bullish Percent Indicators Mixed

With the strong market yesterday (7/27/2012) I expected most of the Bullish Percent Indicators (BPI) would move up in value and definitely show X's in the right-hand column of the Point and Figure Graphs.  Of all the BPI graphs, the NYSE PnF graph is the most important.  Even though the value dropped, it is still as high as it was back in mid-May. Right now I have the Factor Scale … [Read More...]

Delta Factor: Three-Year Analysis Projects Grim Market Ahead

Yesterday I uploaded a "Delta Factor" data table using four years of historical data.  Today I am posting another table.  I added a few ETFs, but the main difference is that I am using three instead of four years of historical data.  Note the major difference in the projections for the future.  All the red is due to the analysis beginning with the market in steep … [Read More...]