100 Level

Why Use Index Funds?

The Power of Index Investing Why are 80% to 85% of all investors wrong?  Could it be the power of advertising and greed?  What do I mean when I say a high percentage of investors have it all wrong?  Simple!  The majority of investors build their portfolios by selecting individual stocks.  While we do not find fault with investors who want to add a few highly selected … [Read More...]

Latest Bullish Percent Indicators

Readers looking for the latest Bullish Percent Indicators will find them at this site.  These results simply underline what I've been saying for weeks - this is an overbought market.  One of the ways to protect capital is to implement the ITA Risk Reduction model or simply go to cash at some point when the market backs off these high levels.  That is an extremely difficult call to make.  I'm … [Read More...]

300 Level

Walking Investors Through Kepler Review

We begin the review of Kepler by examining the Dashboard.  The Dashboard is one of the critical worksheets found inside the TLH Spreadsheet, our portfolio tracking software program.  From the slide below, we see several asset classes are out of balance and efforts to make adjustments based on information can be found later in this blog post. Kepler Dashboard:  Depending on the optimization that … [Read More...]

Sample Portfolio Requested By Platinum Member

The following set of tickers and percentages were sent to me for analysis.  I used five years of historical data and set, as I generally do, a 7.0% return projection for the S&P 500.  I used TIP (1.0%) for the cash holding.  That choice has little impact on the final projections.    Below is the analysis data.  Instead of me writing up my observations, I'll … [Read More...]

200 Level

A Lesson from Gauss

Carl Gauss is considered by some as the most brilliant mathematician who ever lived.  He is sometimes called called the "Prince of Mathematicians."  I even named one of my computers after him.  One of his contributions is the Gaussian Distribution where real valued random variables tend to cluster around a single mean variable.  Does that sound like prices dancing … [Read More...]

Portfolio Performance: 7 January 2012

Of the ten portfolio evaluated a week ago, all showed absolute gains this week.  A new portfolio, Gauss, was add to the list.  Expect the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) values for this new portfolio to be exaggerated for a number of months as that is the nature of the IRR.  Slight performance changes are amplified as these are annualized percentages calculated over only a few … [Read More...]

400 Level

“Delta Factor” Plus “Conservative Delta Index”

Platinum members, here is the extended screen shot that includes another column of information. Platinum membership available for $5.00 per month. … [Read More...]

Retirement Ratio: Portfolio Performance and Uncertainty Measurement

What is the Retirement Ratio (RR)?  I never heard of such a ratio, at least as it is defined below.  Before going into an explanation, let me digress and address similar ratios.  Portfolio performance measurements that combine both return and risk are readily available to investors.  The Sharpe ratio is perhaps the best known "efficiency ratio" where it measures the … [Read More...]