100 Level

ETF Screener

Here is a useful link to an ETF screening site. I will place a link to it over on the right-hand edge so if you lose the link you will always know where to find it. … [Read More...]

Delta Factor Shouts – The Market Is Over Valued!

Based on the most recent Delta Factor data, the current market is over-valued, and that is putting it mildly.  I don't think I've seen this many "red" projections since the market hit its 2007 highs.  What I did was take both equity and bond ETFs that are commission free for TDAmeritrade clients and use percentages not all that far removed from the recommendations that come out of the … [Read More...]

300 Level

Benchmarking the Portfolio

Benchmarking Portfolio Establishing an appropriate benchmark for a portfolio is essential if one is serious about investing. Avoiding portfolio benchmarking is an act of self-deception. Exactly what is the purpose of a benchmark and what are the requirements for a fair and reasonable benchmark. Here is one definition of benchmarking.   In the investing world, the S&P 500 is … [Read More...]

Mandelbrot: Efficient Market Critic

Benoit Mandelbrot, inventor of fractal geometry, is one of the most articulate critic of what is known as the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Mandelbrot does suggest a method for portfolio construction and it closely follows what Geoff Considine developed in his Quantext Portfolio Planning (QPP) software. Mandelbrot advocates stress testing the portfolio. Quoting from his book, "It means … [Read More...]

200 Level

Portfolio Performance: 20 May 2011

While nearly every updated portfolio lost a little ground in absolute terms, all gained when compared to either the customized ITA Index, the Vanguard Total Market Index Fund (VTSMX), or one of the two uncertainty or risk ratios.  Absolute terms means that the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of the portfolio declined.  While this is important, the relative measurements are more significant … [Read More...]

Setting Up a Dividend Oriented Portfolio for Retirement

A number of months ago I came across advice from a Certified Financial Planner (CFP) that peaked my interest.  Using the data as given, what are the projections if one uses the Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) for the analysis?  Are the results similar to those posited by the CFP?  To answer the question, I set up a dividend oriented portfolio made up of fifteen ETFs.  Without … [Read More...]

400 Level

Staying On The Right Side Of The Market With A Ten ETF Portfolio

Remaining on the right side of the market is critical to reducing portfolio risk.  Platinum members should be well aware of the ITA Risk Reduction model, our first line of defense.  Remember Faber's axiom that ETFs are more volatile when they are priced below the 200-Day Simple Moving Average.  Here at ITA we use a faster EMA, but the difference is not significant and the … [Read More...]

Best Buy Asset Classes

Which asset classes provide the best probabilities for growth over the next six to twelve months.  One of two ways to answer this question is to examine the "Delta Factor" for the "Big Six" U.S. Equity asset classes plus domestic REITs, international REITs, developed international markets, emerging markets, and commodities.  Bonds do not inter into this analysis. In … [Read More...]