100 Level

Investing Review: Examining the Basic Principles

From time to time it is useful to go back to the basics and make sure we have an investment plan that makes sense and has a high probability of adding value, or as we like to say, adds alpha to the portfolio.  In one of his later posts, "HedgeHunter" recommends laying out an investment plan.  Here are a few basics. Follow The Golden Rule of Investing by living below your means and save as much … [Read More...]

Why I Am Bearish On Bonds

In a comment last week I hinted that I had some new information as it related to bonds, TIPs, and treasuries (TLT).  Here is my reasoning why I continue to be bearish on bonds. This information is not available for publication elsewhere on the internet. … [Read More...]

300 Level

Curie Portfolio Review: 4 April 2012

Another month rolled around for the Curie and here is the update.  One trivial bit of information is that one "shard" stock (Washington Mutual) was replaced with another (WMIH.PK).  I despise these fragments hanging around the portfolio.  This is not an issue when one is dealing with "mainstream" ETFs.  Moving past this nuisance we first take a look at the … [Read More...]

Revised Gauss Spreadsheet

Here is the link to the corrected Gauss Portfolio.  I had an error in the ITA Index calculation. … [Read More...]

200 Level

Solving Investment Problem #5: It is too late to start saving.

Balderdash!  It is never too late to begin saving for retirement.  Yes, it is preferred to follow "The Golden Rule of Investing" and start saving as early as possible, but it is never to late to begin.  Let me illustrate with a short story. I know of one family that had almost no savings by age 57.  The house was paid in full, but savings for retirement were close to … [Read More...]

Retirement Mistake #5: Underestimating Life Expectancy

Not only are we living longer, but we are living healthier lives.  When planning for retirement, what age should one project as the end-of-life year?  When running out retirement projections using the Monte Carlo calculations within the Quantext Portfolio Planner software, I use 100 as the end-of-life year when testing the probability of running out of money.  There are many assumptions that go … [Read More...]

400 Level

Hierarchy of Buy and Sell Decisions

Burlington Northern operating in the wide open spaces of the Northwest. Hierarchy of buy and sell decision is critical, particularly when the market is running at current high levels.  Here are some guidelines I use when it comes to rebalancing the portfolio or making buy, hold, and sell decisions. The following information is not available for publication elsewhere on the Internet. … [Read More...]

“New Normal” Portfolio Analyzed

Long-time readers of ITA Wealth Management are familiar with the "New Normal" portfolio, a risk oriented portfolio developed by a Platinum member.  Following is an analysis of an approximation of the NN portfolio.  Approximate in the sense that several tickers were combined into one as the "Ranking Software" will not handle more than twenty investments in one run.  In addition I substituted XOM … [Read More...]