100 Level

News From Recent Conference

Two days ago I returned from a conference in St. Louis.  Our hotel overlooked Busch Stadium where the St. Louis Cardinals were playing the Washington Nationals in the first playoff series.  Walking on the streets among the fans was a blast as everyone was in a good mood and it was easy to talk with strangers, particularly when I mentioned Tommy Herr, a former second baseman with the … [Read More...]

Active Management: Ferri’s Five Negative Strikes

When I began investing there were no index funds.  The number of mutual funds numbered fewer than 300 and fund research was conducted by going to the library and requesting Weisenberger Mutual Fund Reports.  Mutual funds have multiplied like fruit flies and there are now well over 10,000.  Do we need this many?  Likely not. Let's look back 35 years to when there were … [Read More...]

300 Level

Mosaic Portfolio Lookback – 31 March 2008

Moving from January of 2008 on to the end of the first quarter in 2008, what is the Mosaic Portfolio projecting?  The following QPP analysis continues to show strong returns and low volatility.  This gives rise to an above average Return/Uncertainty ratio of 0.66.  Remember that anything above 0.60 meets the desired target.  The diversification metric and portfolio … [Read More...]

$100,000 Starter Portfolio

For prospective investors just beginning a portfolio, here is a sample based on the Momentum-Optimization Model (MOM).  MOM is discussed elsewhere on this blog.  Just search to full title or MOM to find this material. We first begin with a ranking of all the securities we might consider for our holdings.  This includes approximately 30 ETFs.  Most are commission free to clients of … [Read More...]

200 Level

Portfolio Performance: Week of July 29

Portfolio Performance Data Table Below is the portfolio performance data table for this past week.  While every portfolio lost ground on an absolute scale, nearly all gained on the two benchmarks.  Losses were expected in light of the market action this week.  Of the eight portfolio available to Platinum members, only the Einstein did not gain ground on the ITA Index … [Read More...]

Capital Markets Outlook and Retirement Payout Percentage

Platinum members are well aware of my conservative recommendations when it comes to the payout percentage during retirement.  While it is common to suggest a payout of 5% during retirement, I advocate pulling out as little as 2% per year and no more than 4%.  Lowering the payout rate "insures" one will not run out of money in retirement.  I hope to have a spreadsheet that … [Read More...]

400 Level

ITA Ratio Introduced

As I wrote in an earlier comment, I am moving from the Sortino ratio over to what I call the ITA ratio.  Let me go into detail as to why I am making the change.  I will explain how the new ITA ratio is calculated and how it will be programmed into later versions of the TLH spreadsheets.  It is not going to be all that difficult to make the change so stick with me. Before I launch … [Read More...]

Reviewing RSI and PnF Technical Indicators

Checking RSI and PnF Graphs Periodically I'll go through the ETFs held in most of the ITA Wealth Management portfolios and give each a visual technical check.  This examination is nothing more than a quick performance look of the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) and the Point and Figure (PnF) graphs.  In the two links I use VWO as the example ETF. … [Read More...]