100 Level

Sample Portfolio Analysis

An ITA reader sent in the following portfolio for analysis.  Two funds, VXUS and VNQI, had short histories so the analysis is limited to 25 months of data.  Below is the QPP analysis and the correlation matrix for this group of holdings.  The S&P 500 is assumed to return 7.0% over the next six to twelve months. QPP Analysis:  Anytime a portfolio is projected to return approximately 100 … [Read More...]

Top Ten Investment Books: A Revised List

  Education is a crucial step toward financial success. Where does one begin when trying to come up with the top ten investment books?  Here is my revised list, but be forewarned, this is not a list of books that focus on either fundamental analysis of stocks, nor is it a list of books explaining technical analysis.  In fact, the list below is the antithesis of stock picking.  My … [Read More...]

300 Level

Bohr Portfolio Update

Although a tad early for an update on the Bohr Portfolio, two limit orders were struck recently and I want to make readers aware of those additions.  As usual, the first examination is to view the Dashboard from the TLH spreadsheet.  Below is that screen shot.  The limit orders were for mid-cap blend, now in balance, and emerging markets, still below target.  The emerging … [Read More...]

Kepler Portfolio Update: 27 December 2011

Twenty-five shares of VWO were added to the Kepler Portfolio last week.  This addition brought the Emerging Market asset class within the 25% target limit, but still left the portfolio 118 shares below the targeted percentage.  Platinum members will note the Dashboard or Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) plan below.  If I make changes over the next few weeks it will result in … [Read More...]

200 Level

Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio

Risk-Parity Look at Permanent Portfolio Much is written about Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio, particularly since it held up well during the "Black Swan" markets of the early 21st century.  Below is a look at the equal allocation plan as advocated by Browne, and a Risk-Parity examination of the same four asset classes.  Both the equal allocation and Risk-Parity … [Read More...]

Can Your Portfolio Survive The Next Bear Market?

The following SORDEX analysis is a variation of the material presented in the "Will I Run Out of Money?" blog.  Once more, I will use the 12-ETF Portfolio as the retirement portfolio.  As review, SORDEX is an acronym for Sequence-of-Returns Downside Exposure. Translated for T. C. PITS, it is a way to run several Monte Carlo calculations and see if you are likely to run out of … [Read More...]

400 Level

Projected Blood In The Street For Equities Using Three Years Of Delta Factor Data

If you are looking for Blood In The Street, look no further than the "Delta Factor" projections for an array of equity ETFs.  Keep in mind that the following projections are reversion-to-the-mean calculations and when one has witnessed a powerful bull market as we experienced since March of 2009, it will not come as a surprise to readers that future projections are unlike to … [Read More...]

Risk Reduction Model: Examination of Maxwell

Today is ITA Risk Reduction examination day for the Maxwell Portfolio. … [Read More...]