100 Level

Delta Factor Shouts – The Market Is Over Valued!

Based on the most recent Delta Factor data, the current market is over-valued, and that is putting it mildly.  I don't think I've seen this many "red" projections since the market hit its 2007 highs.  What I did was take both equity and bond ETFs that are commission free for TDAmeritrade clients and use percentages not all that far removed from the recommendations that come out of the … [Read More...]

Investment Articles of Interest

Two articles of interest to investors are the following. The first article was written by Geoff Considine with the title, An Important Challenge to "Stocks for the Long Run."  Jeremy Siegel is the author of the 'Long Run' book. The second article is actually a transcript of a debate between Siegel and Zvi Bodie.  This paper can be found on one of my blog sites … [Read More...]

300 Level

Swensen Portfolio Plus Dividend ETF VIG

As suggested by one reader, I removed the individual stocks from the Swensen-Six Portfolio and added VIG, a dividend oriented ETF.  Below is the Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) analysis, correlation matrix, and "Delta Factor" projections when using five years of historical data.  One big advantage of using VIG instead of several individual stocks is one of simplicity.  … [Read More...]

Maxwell Portfolio Update: 30 August 2013

As a reminder to new members, the Maxwell is one of three portfolios where all the transaction details are not available for viewing. One bit of good news for this portfolio is that over the last three months, or since launching a risk reduction model, the Maxwell picked up 140 basis points with respect to the ITA Index and 10 basis points on the VTSMX benchmark.  While the gain on VTSMX was … [Read More...]

200 Level

Eight Asset Porfolio

Photograph: When I first walked Devastation Trail in late 1961 or early 1962, there was no vegetation to be seen as it was soon after the eruption. Consider the following portfolio that holds eight assets including cash.  In this analysis, I am using the 20-year treasury ETF, TLT, to represent cash, a substitution that gives the portfolio a slight boost over current money market rates.  … [Read More...]

Retirement Mistake #5: Underestimating Life Expectancy

Not only are we living longer, but we are living healthier lives.  When planning for retirement, what age should one project as the end-of-life year?  When running out retirement projections using the Monte Carlo calculations within the Quantext Portfolio Planner software, I use 100 as the end-of-life year when testing the probability of running out of money.  There are many assumptions that go … [Read More...]

400 Level

Risk Reduction Model: Examination of Maxwell

Today is ITA Risk Reduction examination day for the Maxwell Portfolio. … [Read More...]

Gauss Portfolio: Updated Dashboard Reflecting Risk Reduction Model

The Gauss Portfolio is now ready for a 30-Day nap.  With all the critical ETFs above their 195-Day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), all required purchases were made this morning.  The following Dashboard shows the asset classes are in balance. … [Read More...]