100 Level

Bullish Percent Indicators: 9 November 2012

Friday, November 9th, was a flat market, but the direction over the course of the week was down and that is reflected in many of the indexes and sectors.  Our most important index changed direction and handed the ball over to the defense.  Other BPI values moved out of the overbought zone.  Check the details below. Index BPIs:  The NYSE and Dow Jones Transportation were the last holdouts.  Both … [Read More...]

15-Stock Diversification Myth

Diversification Myth Debunked   How many stocks does it take to eliminate portfolio risk?  The number 12 to 15 often crops up.  If that is too few, then maybe 20 to 30 will do.  This number has also come under fire, particularly in a world economy where U.S. companies no longer make up the majority of available companies and our economy is shrinking as a percentage of the … [Read More...]

300 Level

“Creme List” for 22 January 2011

CSCO is back on the list and we lost LLY.  Otherwise, only minor shifts occurred this week.  No stock was priced to purchase according to my analysis. Platinum membership available for a mere $5.00 per month. … [Read More...]

In Search of the “Holy Grail” Portfolio Asset Allocation

Searching for that idea asset allocation is a never ending challenge. Particularly if one does not want an overly complicated portfolio. Below is a slight variation of a Strategic Asset Allocation plan laid out earlier this week. While the projected return meets the goal of exceeding the projected return for the S&P 500 by more than 100 basis points (1.0%), the projected uncertainty is a … [Read More...]

200 Level

Why The Preference For Index Vehicles?

Why build portfolios using index investment vehicles such as index mutual funds or non-managed index ETFs instead of selecting individual stocks? An excellent question since the majority of individuals construct their portfolios using stock selection. Stock selectors are active investors as they hold the belief that through brains, stock analysis, technical analysis, or some other art form, they … [Read More...]

What The Experts Say About Index Investing

Photograph:  Georgia O'Keeffe Museum Research Center - New Mexico   Perusing the Bogleheads web site, I found this long list of quotes from well known investment writers and managers.  Here is what they have to say about index investing.  These bits of wisdom further explain why I favor tilting investments toward non-managed index vehicles.  Further, I favor ETFs for … [Read More...]

400 Level

Delta Factor: Second Draft

Below is the second draft of additional Delta Factor calculations.  As one can see from this table, the trends or signals arrive early.  I'm still not satisfied with the algorithm used to generate the Buy, Hold, and Sell signals for these ETFs. Note the dramatic shift between 9/15/2008 and 10/15/2008.  When I see something like this I recheck my figures. … [Read More...]

ITA Risk Reduction Model Positions

Investors following the ITA Risk Reduction model are currently in "neglect" mode.  This simply means we are not trading any commission free ETFs, but we are watching the price action of several key markets.  Let's focus on two REITs to illustrate this point.  In our portfolios we include both domestic (VNQ) and international (RWX) REITs.  In the following graph we … [Read More...]