100 Level

Retirement Mistake #5: Underestimating Life Expectancy

Not only are we living longer, but we are living healthier lives.  When planning for retirement, what age should one project as the end-of-life year?  When running out retirement projections using the Monte Carlo calculations within the Quantext Portfolio Planner software, I use 100 as the end-of-life year when testing the probability of running out of money.  There are many assumptions that go … [Read More...]

Can You Beat The Market?

As an investor, ask yourself the following questions. Am I selecting individual stocks as the primary building blocks for my portfolio? Do I use actively managed mutual funds as my investing vehicles? Do I even know what active management means? Have I turned my investments over to an investment manager? What are the total management fees charged by the investment manager? If the … [Read More...]

300 Level

Rebalancing: How Important?

Below are rebalancing results that Bob Warasila recently updated.  As background for this study, we started with eight asset classes and invested $10,000 in each for a total of $80,000 for the portfolio.  The asset classes consisted of the "Big Six," REITs, and International Markets.  In 1989 I did not have easy access to data on commodities, international real estate, … [Read More...]

“New Normal” Portfolio With Risk Reduction Allocation Plan

Following up on the risk adjusted Ten ETF Portfolio analyzed yesterday, what does the "New Normal" group of stocks and ETFs look like when the same risk management algorithm is applied.  In this analysis I was able to stretch the historical period out over five-years.  The percentage allocated to the different stocks and ETFs look reasonable when the low variance BND ETF is not … [Read More...]

200 Level

Portfolio Performance Data: 18 November 2011

The following data table speaks to what ITA Wealth Management is all about.  The performance of the 21 portfolios comes from live and operating portfolios.  None are virtual or fictitious portfolios.  Platinum members have access to all the transactions for eight (8) of the portfolios tracked using the TLH Spreadsheet. These portfolios belong to a variety of individuals and I have … [Read More...]

Portfolio Performance Data Table For Eleven Portfolios: 22 June 2012

After missing last week, here is the latest portfolio performance data for the eleven portfolios tracked at ITA Wealth Management.  Seven of the eleven gained ground on the VTSMX over the past two weeks and the other four held even.  Those that pulled ahead of the benchmark were: Curie, Newton, Einstein, Kepler, Bohr, Kenilworth, and Gauss.  Since I made some asset allocation … [Read More...]

400 Level

Projected Blood In The Street For Equities Using Three Years Of Delta Factor Data

If you are looking for Blood In The Street, look no further than the "Delta Factor" projections for an array of equity ETFs.  Keep in mind that the following projections are reversion-to-the-mean calculations and when one has witnessed a powerful bull market as we experienced since March of 2009, it will not come as a surprise to readers that future projections are unlike to … [Read More...]

Some Answers to Correlation Questions

In a recent post I showed examples of Correlation Matrices generated by different softwares from (seemingly) the same data. I have now found explanations for the differences in all but the data generated by the QPP software. In the original post I used raw price data to generate the Excel correlation matrix – as such, that matrix was correct. However, in the analysis of stock price data, the … [Read More...]