100 Level

Technical Analysis: Is the Market Overbought?

Examining the S & P 500 A number of weeks ago I mentioned the high percentage of individual stocks that were registering a Bull indication in the Point & Figure (PnF) graphs.  While the percentage tailed off a little last week, yesterday's market surge will likely increase the percentage once more.  Here is another important indicator of the current market condition and what … [Read More...]

Solving Investment Problem #2: I don’t know where to begin.

For readers or prospective investors who don't know where to begin, one place to start is to click on the Category to the right titled, Beginning Investors.  My second recommendation is to read two short books.  The two easiest investment books that will put you on the right path are: "The Investment Answer" by Daniel Goldie and Gordan Murray and "The Elements of … [Read More...]

300 Level

Year End Portfolio Hints

This year, the last business day arrives on December 31st and that gives us a chance to balance our portfolios to the nearest penny. At least TDAmeritrade clients have a high probability of receive access to their statements before the market opens the following week. Go through your portfolio Monday and see if you have any tax losses you might want to capture in 2010. If the loss is small, I … [Read More...]

Mosaic Portfolio Lookback – 31 December 2008

One Quarter Away From Bear Market Conclusion Here we are at the end of 2008 and the market is still dismal.  What signals can we decipher from the QPP analysis and the Delta Index worksheet?  Are any clues showing up?  First, look at the QPP analysis.  Nothing was altered except for the time frame.  The data used for the analysis was moved forward one quarter.  … [Read More...]

200 Level

Captool Performance Data Table

February broker statements are available and I've been working since early morning updating the portfolios tracked using Captool software.  This past month was a good one for most investors as the portfolios, in general, gained ground on the benchmarks.  I'll know more details after updating the TLH spreadsheets.  The performance data table, shown below, is available to … [Read More...]

The Power of Asset Allocation

Photograph: River activity on the Rhine River With permission from a Platinum member, here are some statistic of a portfolio launched in early January of 2002.  At the close last week, this portfolio generated an annualized return of 8.1% vs. 4.8% for the VTSMX benchmark.  That 3.3% point difference on an annualized basis resulted in a $26,573 portfolio moving up to $47,235 over the … [Read More...]

400 Level

Bullish Percent Indicators: 3 November 2012

A few more changes developed this past week in both index and sector Bullish Percent Indicators.  In some cases the market strengthened while in others it weakened.  As you look over the tables, ask yourself if you see any particular trends. … [Read More...]

Momentum-Optimization Analysis of Equity Oriented Portfolio

Momentum-Optimization Analysis In the prior blog post I analyzed a sample portfolio using Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP).  In this analysis I will use the momentum-optimizer spreadsheet to come up with the efficient frontier, a ranking of the securities, and the "decision maker," a Buy-Hold-Sell recommendation table.  We first take a look at the efficient frontier graph to see where the current … [Read More...]