100 Level

How Well Did The Beginner’s Portfolio Perform?

This weekend I posted an article over on Seeking Alpha on a Beginner's Portfolio.  One comment got me to thinking - how well did this optimized portfolio perform over the last five years, the time frame I used for the SA article.?  I considered this to be a beginner's portfolio in the sense that it holds only 10 ETFs and it is not all that sophisticated or complicated.  My personal preference is … [Read More...]

Precious Metals and European Crisis

Precious Metals React Badly to European Crisis In times of economic uncertainty, a wise investor would hedge their market bets with silver and gold in hopes of a future payday. They would either buy precious metals in bullion and coins or invest in stocks related to precious metals, like mining stocks. Historically, precious metals are considered "safe havens" when the stock market may … [Read More...]

300 Level

Portfolio Review: Curie Update

Curie Portfolio Update Other than recording June dividends, none of the 17 limit orders were activated this month. Current dips in the market were insufficient to trigger any orders I set for the Curie Portfolio.  Based on analysis such as one sees in this article, I think we need a good 10% correction to reel in all the limit orders set for this portfolio. Below is the Dashboard for the … [Read More...]

Using the Ranking Spreadsheet as a Timing Tool

This Post is in response to a comment from a member concerning whether the Ranking Sheet (and Momentum Percentage) might be useful as a general market timing tool for different markets (e.g. US Equities, non US Equities). As suggested by the member, I've setup the spreadsheet with only 4 ETFs, US Equities (VTI), Developed Markets ex-US (EFA), Emerging Markets ex US (VWO) and (the inevitable) … [Read More...]

200 Level

Retirement Payout Spreadsheet

A few days ago I mentioned the possibility of a retirement payout spreadsheet coming to ITA.  The spreadsheet is now available and the link, provided below, is available to Platinum members.  The spreadsheet is authored by a friend and I customized it for individual investors.  The concept behind this spreadsheet is to see the change in the payout if one lowers it by some … [Read More...]

A Lesson from Gauss

Carl Gauss is considered by some as the most brilliant mathematician who ever lived.  He is sometimes called called the "Prince of Mathematicians."  I even named one of my computers after him.  One of his contributions is the Gaussian Distribution where real valued random variables tend to cluster around a single mean variable.  Does that sound like prices dancing … [Read More...]

400 Level

Modified Ivy Portfolio Risk Reduction Model Working

One year ago, motivated by the writings of Faber and Richardson in their book, The Ivy Portfolio, I set up one portfolio with the expressed purpose of employing a risk reduction model similar to that outlined in the book. About the same time I expanded the experiment to include four other portfolios I was tracking for relatives and friends. How is the experiment working? Before delving into the … [Read More...]

A Risk-Parity Look At The New Normal Portfolio

While I don't know if the current makeup of assets matches my most recent copy of the New Normal, a look at a risk reduction or equal rating of risk is instructive.  Check out the QPP analysis below. … [Read More...]