100 Level

Dump Mutual Funds

Dump Actively Managed Mutual Funds On occasion I am asked if it is best to sell actively managed mutual funds and buy index ETFs, or is it better to make the switch gradually.  The answer is an easy one and it is - dump immediately.  In fact, with this high market now is an excellent time to cash out of actively managed mutual funds and move into index funds, particularly in tax … [Read More...]

“New Normal” Debate Is On

Here are two references that articulate different points of view as to whether or not we are going to face a "New Normal" over the next decade. The first site pits Ken Fisher against the position of El-Erian. The second site is referenced in the first paper. … [Read More...]

300 Level

Asset Allocation: A Look Back

Mosaic Portfolio Lookback - 10/1/2007 Asset allocation is at the core of our portfolio plans.  In the following screen shot, Platinum members see a generic portfolio that is Mosaic in nature.  By Mosaic I mean the portfolio contains both ETFs and individual stocks.  While this is not an ideal portfolio, it illustrates the points I am making over the next several blogs entries. The … [Read More...]

QPP Analysis of Kepler Portfolio

Quantext Portfolio Planning (QPP) is not only useful when initially planning a portfolio, but it is also instructive when a portfolio, such as the Kepler, is up for review.  In preparation for the update coming next week, the following QPP analysis is a precursor of what to expect for the Kepler.  Do note that four ETFs (VSS, IDX, EMB, and PCY) have "short-records" which means … [Read More...]

200 Level

How Many Asset Classes or ETFs Are Required to Construct Diversified Portfolio?

One of my favorite blog writers is Geoff Considine of the Portfolioist.  Yesterday, November 28th, Dr. Considine published an interesting article that begins to answer the above question - How many asset classes or ETFs are necessary to build a well-diversified portfolio?  Considine posits ten (10) asset classes will provide sufficient diversification.  David Swensen argues in his book, … [Read More...]

Portfolio Performance – 14 January 2011

  Portfolio Performance Below is the Portfolio Performance data table for this week.  Overall, the seven updated portfolios gained a little ground on the benchmarks as well as the SR and RR return/risk ratios.  In one case, the portfolio pulled ahead of the benchmark, but showed a decline in the SR and RR values.  That event is rather unusual, but it does occur.  … [Read More...]

400 Level

Using the Delta Indicator

Quantext Portfolio Planner Expanded While I hope to have the following article published on Seeking Alpha, I am permitted to make it available to Platinum readers since it is not readily available free on the Internet.  Here is the article as I submitted it to SA.  Platinum members have see this expansion of the QPP analysis before, but I don't recall ever posting both extremes so … [Read More...]

Latest Bullish Percent Indicators

Readers looking for the latest Bullish Percent Indicators will find them at this site.  These results simply underline what I've been saying for weeks - this is an overbought market.  One of the ways to protect capital is to implement the ITA Risk Reduction model or simply go to cash at some point when the market backs off these high levels.  That is an extremely difficult call to make.  I'm … [Read More...]