100 Level

Super Charge Your Portfolio

In response to reader requests, I am posting a list of dividend oriented stocks.  Perhaps this is the beginning of a discussion of how one might add a few stocks to a core of index ETFs. The following material is not available for publication elsewhere. … [Read More...]

The Trend is Our Friend: Risk Parity, Momentum and Trend Following

A few days ago I ran into an article Platinum members may find interesting.  There are some possible underlying benefits to applying the "Delta Factor" and the Bullish Percent Indicator.  You will need to download this article from Mebane Faber's site as I did not find it available as a stand along article.  I'll provide the best path I could find. … [Read More...]

300 Level

Preparing For Kepler Review

In a few days the Kepler Portfolio comes up for review, so here is the preparation material.  I'll walk readers through the Efficient Frontier, Ranking, and Buy-Hold-Sell (BHS) recommendations. Efficient Frontier:  The Kepler requires some adjustments before the current allocation is fully optimized.  What to do is shown in a later screenshot.  Holdings such as TIP are not improving the … [Read More...]

QPP Analysis of Another Low Risk Retirement Portfolio

The nexus for the following portfolio begins with this Seeking Alpha article and the follow-up QPP analysis of a portfolio suggested by a SA reader.  A link to the second analysis can be found here.  And now we come to the third portfolio in this series of low risk retirement plans.  This last set of ETFs was suggested by a reader of the ITA blog. The four ETFs that make up this … [Read More...]

200 Level

Portfolio for 25-Year Old: The Positives and Negatives

As a followup to William Bernstein's e-book, "The Ages of the Investor," what might a portfolio look like for a 25-year old investor?  The following portfolio is built around 15 ETFs that cover the U.S. Equities market, developed international markets, commodities, emerging markets, both domestic and international REITs, sovereign debt, bonds, and treasuries.  In other words, we are diversifying … [Read More...]

Retirement Planning Mistake #2

As a young boy my parents read to me every night and Aesop's fables were frequently on the menu.  I still recall the ant and grasshopper story where the ant was busy in the summer preparing for the winter while the grasshopper wasted time foolishly.  The picture from the fable that still lingers is that of a frozen grasshopper the following winter.  That story is fundamental to The Golden Rule of … [Read More...]

400 Level

Condition of Critical ETFs and The ITA Risk Reduction Model

When a portfolio is coming up for ITARR review or examination, I begin to check on the eight critical ETFs used to populate the portfolio.  Those eight ETFs are: VTI, IWN, VEU, VWO, VNQ, RWX, DBC, and PCY.  The next move is to activate SharpCharts to see where the price of the ETF is positioned with respect to the 195-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).  If nothing changes over … [Read More...]

Risk Management: How To Reduce Losses

On page 167 of Mebane T. Faber and Eric W. Richardson's book, "The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets" we read, "Our research has shown that returns are lower and volatility is higher when asset classes are below the 10-month moving average."  What investor is not interested in reducing portfolio volatility while increasing returns.  And possibly more … [Read More...]