100 Level

VWO And The ITA Risk Reduction Model

During this most recent market dip, if one asset class needed protection, it was emerging markets.  Just how did our Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) or risk reduction model work with the VWO ETF.  Here is the current price and 195-Day EMA graph for emerging markets (VWO).  This morning the 195-Day EMA is $40.80. Since I rotate my review of different portfolios, the selling points … [Read More...]

Delta Factor After 400 Point Drop

ITA Wealth Management readers likely want to know what the Delta and Delta Factor projections are indicating after the 400 point drop yesterday.  The buying trend has started, although we still could be early in the cycle.  The reason I think we may be early is that it is not unusual for the Delta Factor to make projections a few months early.  Two time ranges are shown in the … [Read More...]

300 Level

TLH Spreadsheets

Below are links to the seven spreadsheets available to Platinum members. … [Read More...]

Mosaic Portfolio Lookback – June 30, 2008

June 30 of 2008 was a period when the market was in a deep funk, and sinking.  In the following analysis we put the Mosaic Portfolio in that situation and analyze it, now knowing what happened.  What were the signals at that time?  Since the end of the first quarter, the projected return dropped slightly and the Return/Uncertainty ratio declined.  The diversification percentage … [Read More...]

200 Level

Optimizing The Swensen Six Portfolio

The prior blog post shows what happens when no constraints are placed on an optimized portfolio.  To follow up on the Swensen Six post, assume we begin with the asset allocation plan recommended by Swensen and then optimize the six ETFs using reasonable constraints.  The following efficient frontier graph show the Swensen allocation (diamond dot) falling well short of the optimized portfolio (red … [Read More...]

Asset Allocation Example

In the table below, viewers see the asset classes discussed in a prior blog entry.  We are looking at fifteen asset classes, including Cash. In the second table the sample asset allocation is broken down into percentages and we cut out the Core holding, moving the number of asset classes to twelve. [Table=6] … [Read More...]

400 Level

When Was The Last Time The Bullish Percent Indicators Turned Bullish?

"Do you have enough data yet to have a sense of how far in advance or behind these changes are for market down turns or up turns. Clearly they are trailing data but maybe they can help us avoid major declines?" Bob Warasila asked the above question this morning so I went back into my Bullish Percent Indicators spreadsheet for the answer.  The last time the BPI was oversold for most of the major … [Read More...]

Using Treasuries to Reduce Risk

Compare the following portfolio (QPP analysis) with the risk reducing portfolio I suggested last week.  In the following portfolio, I stripped percentages off several equity and REIT ETFs and allocated those assets to a combination of TIP and TLT.  While the projected return is reduced, the projected standard deviation comes down at a faster rate giving one a higher Return/Uncertainty … [Read More...]