100 Level

Six Investing Basics

1.  Save 2.  Index 3.  Diversify 4.  Cut Costs 5.  Rebalance 6.  Monitor Save:  Follow "The Golden Rule of Investing."  There is no substitute for saving and living below your means. Save early in life and do it frequently. Index:  Use index funds or index ETFs.  Avoid picking individual stocks unless you are an expert.  Even most experts cannot do it successfully.  Remember, … [Read More...]

US Dominated Porfolio: Analysis Part I

The following portfolio was submitted by a Platinum member for analysis.  As you will see, this is a U.S. Equities dominated portfolio.  As a result, you will note in the Historical Section how well it performed with respect to the S&P 500 over the past five year.  Only 10% is invested in bonds and this should serve the portfolio well over the next five years.  Here is the QPP analysis and in … [Read More...]

300 Level

Swensen Portfolio Plus Dividend ETF VIG

As suggested by one reader, I removed the individual stocks from the Swensen-Six Portfolio and added VIG, a dividend oriented ETF.  Below is the Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) analysis, correlation matrix, and "Delta Factor" projections when using five years of historical data.  One big advantage of using VIG instead of several individual stocks is one of simplicity.  … [Read More...]

Dividend Aristocrats Ten Months Later

Nearly ten months ago a list of dividend oriented stocks were discussed on Seeking Alpha.  From the list of 42 Dividend Aristocrats, I honed in on those listed as a Buy.  Fifteen stocks made that elite list.  What kind of portfolio would an investor end up with when placed under the Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) microscope?  There are a few surprises as readers will see … [Read More...]

200 Level

Going Wobbly On Equities

With the market hovering around all-time highs, perhaps it is time to "go wobbly" on equities.  What might a 20-ETF portfolio look like if the bond requirement were elevated to 30% of the portfolio.  The following is not an operational portfolio, but a sample of securities one might use to build a well-diversified portfolio. Efficient Frontier:  One ETF stands out in the following graph and it … [Read More...]

Stress Testing the Modest Retirement Portfolio

Back on January 7 of this year I posted a "Modest Portfolio" that readers can locate and see the entire analysis.  Below is the same portfolio with a stress test included.  Since this is a middle of the road type portfolio, it is an excellent example to use for a stress test. The portfolio holds only nine ETFs and there are times when one will want to be out of SDS.  Now … [Read More...]

400 Level

Bullish Percent Indicators Gain Ground

The weekly update of index and sector Bullish Percent Indicators showed gains in some critical areas.  Those are shown in the data tables presented below. The following information is not for publication elsewhere on the Internet. … [Read More...]

Delta Factor: A First Look

Delta Factor: First Draft The question of when to buy or sell an ETF comes up frequently.  I've been working on this problem for a year or more and still do not have a definitive answer.  Perhaps there is no right answer, only one of probabilities.  Below is a data table of my first draft effort to quantize whether or not it is time to Buy, Hold, or Sell the primary ETFs.  … [Read More...]