100 Level

Worry Free Investing: Young Readers – Listen Up!

No, I am not obsessed with risk even though I've recently written quite a bit on the subject.  Why the concern about risk as the market seems to be having a good summer?  The specter of rising interest is a major fear for this reason.  If interest rates were to rise to the same level they were when George Bush (43) took office, the amount of money the U.S. Government will need … [Read More...]

Are Stocks and Bonds Dead?

The November 26th issue of Time magazine carries an article by Rana Foroohar focusing on Bill Gross and Mohamed El-Erian, PIMCO executives, who are frequently quoted about the market outlook and reasons why they are both so pessimistic.  Gross and El-Erian don't differ all that much from Grantham's On The Road To Zero Growth projections. Quoting from the Time article, "Gross recently stunned … [Read More...]

300 Level

QPP Analysis of Kepler Portfolio

Quantext Portfolio Planning (QPP) is not only useful when initially planning a portfolio, but it is also instructive when a portfolio, such as the Kepler, is up for review.  In preparation for the update coming next week, the following QPP analysis is a precursor of what to expect for the Kepler.  Do note that four ETFs (VSS, IDX, EMB, and PCY) have "short-records" which means … [Read More...]

Einstein Portfolio Review: 20 May 2013

Thirty-three days passed since the last complete update of the Einstein Portfolio.  The following analysis includes the current Efficient Frontier, ranking of securities, and a table of the Buy-Hold-Sell recommendations. Efficient Frontier: A quick glance at the EF graph below provides evidence this portfolio is not optimized based on the constraints I place on the asset classes and individual … [Read More...]

200 Level

SORDEX Ratio Blog Post Reworked

I just reworked an older SORDEX blog post.  The reason I did not bring this post forward is that there are links when one searches for this information on the Internet and I don't want to break those links. I will likely rework this concept using the latest projected portfolio volatility as the numbers don't look quite so bad with the lower standard deviation projections. … [Read More...]

Portfolio Performance: 20 May 2011

While nearly every updated portfolio lost a little ground in absolute terms, all gained when compared to either the customized ITA Index, the Vanguard Total Market Index Fund (VTSMX), or one of the two uncertainty or risk ratios.  Absolute terms means that the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of the portfolio declined.  While this is important, the relative measurements are more significant … [Read More...]

400 Level

International ETFs and The Delta Factor

This morning I located the following article, Why I Am Buying The Pain In Spain, on Seeking Alpha, one of the top blog sites on the Internet.  In the article, author Cam Hui states his belief in mean-reversion, the exact philosophy that is the foundation of my "Delta Factor" calculations.  Using Hui's article as a backdrop, I decided to run the Delta Factor numbers on the … [Read More...]

Current Condition of the ITA Risk Reduction Model

In contrast to a passive or index approach to investing, what is the state of the critical ETFs used in the portfolios where we are employing the ITA Risk Reduction (ITARR) model?  Tactical Asset Allocation is applied to ETFs in the Maxwell, Euclid, Madison, Kenilworth, and Gauss portfolios so as to avoid "Black Swan" events as we experienced in 2002 and again in 2008.  While … [Read More...]