100 Level

Grandchildren: Seek the Best Education Possible

Photograph: Bay at Le Havre, France It is difficult to over emphasize the importance of a good education.  In our family there was never any discussion about whether or not we were going to college.  It was a given.  My father set the standard when he desired an education so much that he not only paid his way through college, but he also paid to have someone replace him on the … [Read More...]

Manage Your Own Money

  Should you hire a money manager or do it yourself?  Consider the following assumptions and arguments. 1.  As the first given, the portfolio belongs to you, not the hired money manager.  This is an obvious, yet important point. 2.  Assume the advisor fees amount to 100 basis points or 1%.  Fees may be lower, but for ease of calculation, I will use the 1% … [Read More...]

300 Level

Dividend Stocks: Updated List for 20 September 2012

From time to time I post lists of individual stocks that emerge from screens I've set up using particular criteria.  Seeking companies that are showing growth in dividends is the emphasis in the following list of stocks. The following information is not for publication elsewhere on the Internet. … [Read More...]

Modifying Dual Momentum Investing Model

Investors interested in the "Dual Momentum" model should check out the following summaries of this method of portfolio management.  The third link explains how the DM model can be modified. Dual Momentum:  How to Implement Strategy For Higher Returns With Lower Risk A Brief Look at Dual Momentum Modifying The Dual Momentum Strategy … [Read More...]

200 Level

How Does A Beginning Investor Use The ITARR Model?

When one has been saving and investing as long as I have, it is easy to forget many of the initial steps necessary to launch and manage a portfolio.  In this blog post, I will attempt to fill in a few gaps, and even with this effort, I will most likely miss something.  That is why I appreciate questions.  I am using the Gauss Portfolio as my model for several reasons.  1) It is … [Read More...]

Retirement Mistake #5: Underestimating Life Expectancy

Not only are we living longer, but we are living healthier lives.  When planning for retirement, what age should one project as the end-of-life year?  When running out retirement projections using the Monte Carlo calculations within the Quantext Portfolio Planner software, I use 100 as the end-of-life year when testing the probability of running out of money.  There are many assumptions that go … [Read More...]

400 Level

Bond “Delta Factor” Projections

As requested, here are the "Delta Factor" projections for bond ETFs.  Keep in mind that VCSH, VCIT, VMBS and VGLT have short records (less than 5-yrs) so can be neglected.  If you have other bond ETFs to consider, send them along and I can add them to this list. … [Read More...]

Bullish Percent Indicators: Further Market Weakness Beginning To Appear

Bullish Percent Indicators (BPI) are Point and Figure graphs we use to view overall market movements from week to week.  Not only do these indicators provide general market movements based on percentage changes, but the actual values tell us if the market is under valued, fairly valued, or over valued.  The bull market is cooling off based on BPI values and this is why investors need to be paying … [Read More...]