100 Level

Key Ideas to Beginning Your Retirement Program

Keys to successful retirement investing. It All Starts With Saving Follow The Golden Rule of Investing.  Time is money. “Save as much as you can as early as you can.” Five critical investment decisions. The Management Decision Will you do it yourself or will you hire a professional money manager? The Active vs. Passive Decision Will it be stock, index funds, … [Read More...]

Preparing For Next Week

Since blogs the size I use to convey rankings, buy-hold-sell recommendations, etc. are sufficiently large to crash the server housing my blog, I uploaded the information to another site for your viewing.  Here is the URL. … [Read More...]

300 Level

Momentum-Optimization Analysis of Aggressive Portfolio

This blog post is a follow-up analysis of the QPP analysis published less than two hours ago.  What I've done is to take the same set of ETFs, but this time I optimized the portfolio to come up with a different strategic asset allocation plan. Efficient Frontier:  The current portfolio (diamond dot) lands smack on top of the optimized portfolio or so close one can barely (blue dot) distinguish … [Read More...]

Portfolio for 25-Year Old: The Positives and Negatives

As a followup to William Bernstein's e-book, "The Ages of the Investor," what might a portfolio look like for a 25-year old investor?  The following portfolio is built around 15 ETFs that cover the U.S. Equities market, developed international markets, commodities, emerging markets, both domestic and international REITs, sovereign debt, bonds, and treasuries.  In other words, we are diversifying … [Read More...]

200 Level

Simple Global Portfolio as IRA Risk Reduction Core

ITA Risk Reduction Portfolio Over the last few weeks, I've discussed a risk reducing portfolio consisting of seven ETFs.  They are: VTI, IWN, VEU, VWO, VNQ, RWX, and IGE.  While this combination provides global exposure, there are inherent risks.  While the projected return is a robust 9.7%, we take on a high degree of uncertainty to reach this return.  The projected … [Read More...]

Portfolio Performance: 2 March 2012

Most of the portfolios were either flat or lost a fraction of a performance percentage point this week.  The Newton and Bohr made small gains in a rather flat market. Portfolios that gained a little ground on the ITA Index, our customized benchmark, were; Kenilworth, Madison, and Gauss.  The Newton held even and the remaining portfolios fell slightly behind.  It is difficult, … [Read More...]

400 Level

When Was The Last Time The Bullish Percent Indicators Turned Bullish?

"Do you have enough data yet to have a sense of how far in advance or behind these changes are for market down turns or up turns. Clearly they are trailing data but maybe they can help us avoid major declines?" Bob Warasila asked the above question this morning so I went back into my Bullish Percent Indicators spreadsheet for the answer.  The last time the BPI was oversold for most of the major … [Read More...]

Portfolio Risk Management Using The ITA Risk Reduction Model

Following up on Bob Warasila's article, published early this morning, a review of the ITA Risk Reduction model is in order.  In addition to reviewing the ITARR, I will add a few additional wrinkles that should improve portfolio returns. The basic ITARR model has two rules. Buy Rule:  Buy the index ETF when the price of the ETF moves from below to above the 195-Day EMA of the ETF. Sell … [Read More...]