100 Level

Portfolio Construction Index Funds Advisors (IFA) Style

Bob Warasila passed on several references from the http://www.ifa.com web site that deal with portfolio construction.  [I consider Mark Hebner's web IFA site to be one of the best available.]  Keep in mind that IFA is a company that uses Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) mutual funds and the only way one gains access to these funds is through an approved advisor such as Index Funds … [Read More...]

The Search For The Perfect Portfolio

Yesterday I spent a considerable amount of time trying to come up with a portfolio where the projected return exceeds 8% when assuming the S&P 500 would grow at 7% per year.  Additional goals were to bring the projected risk to something under 13% and reach the 40% level for Diversification Metric.  Below is the screen shot for one of my efforts. Platinum membership available for … [Read More...]

300 Level

Dividend Stocks Added To Core ETF Holdings

From time to time I've suggested adding a few highly selected stocks to a core ETF portfolio.  One reader suggested the following set of investing instruments with the request for an analysis using QPP.  Here is that analysis including the correlation matrix.  Also note the list of dividend paying stocks at the bottom of the page. The following material is not available for publication … [Read More...]

“Delta Factor” Update for Bonds

It has been several weeks since I posted information on the "Delta Factor" for bonds.  I don't pay a lot of serious attention to this information, but I do observe the projections to see if there are elements of interest.  In this post, Vale Capital II (CJS) stands out as a possibility.  I'm not familiar with CJS.  I recall a reader of this blog asked that … [Read More...]

200 Level

Smartest Low-Medium Risk Portfolio

With this low-medium risk portfolio we move up one notch in aggressiveness. This is still a very conservative portfolio with 60% committed to the bond/income asset class. Moving from 80% in bonds down to 60% brings about an increase in both projected return and projected uncertainty.  The Return/Uncertainty ratio is still a respectable 0.62. Platinum membership is available for a low $5.00 … [Read More...]

Ranking Model Favors Small-Cap and Value ETFs

While the Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) software shows a high correlation between the "Big Nine" U.S. Equity asset classes, the Ranking Model, recently unveiled, shows a definite bias toward small-cap and value ETFs.  Below is the data table based on the latest three years of data.  To readers who are aware of the Fama-French research, this comes as no surprise. … [Read More...]

400 Level

Bullish Percent Indicators: 9 November 2012

Friday, November 9th, was a flat market, but the direction over the course of the week was down and that is reflected in many of the indexes and sectors.  Our most important index changed direction and handed the ball over to the defense.  Other BPI values moved out of the overbought zone.  Check the details below. Index BPIs:  The NYSE and Dow Jones Transportation were the last holdouts.  Both … [Read More...]

Equity “Delta Factor” Probability Projections

Approximately once a month I publish either the "Delta Factor" probability projections for equity or bond ETFs.  Considering the recent strength in the markets it seemed like a good time to run the analysis again and see if there are any asset classes or ETFs that have a reasonable probability of performing well over the next six to twelve months.  You may be surprised at the … [Read More...]