100 Level

Market Timing or Portfolio Hedge

One of the strongest proponents for staying in the market and avoiding market timing is Charles D. Ellis.  In his book, "Winning the Loser's Game" he writes, "The long, sad history of market timing is clear: Virtually nobody gets it right even half the time. And the cost of getting it wrong wipes out the occasional gain of getting it right. So the average investor's … [Read More...]

Latest Bullish Percent Indicators

Readers looking for the latest Bullish Percent Indicators will find them at this site.  These results simply underline what I've been saying for weeks - this is an overbought market.  One of the ways to protect capital is to implement the ITA Risk Reduction model or simply go to cash at some point when the market backs off these high levels.  That is an extremely difficult call to make.  I'm … [Read More...]

300 Level

Portfolio Performance

Photograph:  Dome of Blue Mosque in Istanbul, Turkey If you hear someone come across a bit strong when it comes to portfolio performance, ask a few simple straight-forward questions. 1.  How is the performance measured and does it meet AIMR standards?  Professionals will know AIMR stands for Association for Investment Management and Research.  ITA Wealth Management readers … [Read More...]

$100,000 Starter Portfolio

For prospective investors just beginning a portfolio, here is a sample based on the Momentum-Optimization Model (MOM).  MOM is discussed elsewhere on this blog.  Just search to full title or MOM to find this material. We first begin with a ranking of all the securities we might consider for our holdings.  This includes approximately 30 ETFs.  Most are commission free to clients of … [Read More...]

200 Level

Rethinking Asset Allocation

One of the primary reasons for developing a well-diversified portfolio is to reduce risk.  This blog will focus primarily on the U.S. Equities portion of the portfolio as we still recognize the importance of including emerging markets, bonds, international real estate, etc.  The question to be analyzed is whether or not to include all "Big Nine" asset classes or can we do as well if the number of … [Read More...]

Bohr Portfolio Review: 15 September 2011

Since the last update, shares of RWX, VOE, VEU, VTV, DVY, VWO, and VUG were added to the Bohr portfolio.  The number of shares were small as most of the asset classes are in balance.  The two asset classes that need attention are large-cap value and international REITs.  I over-shot large-cap value with purchases in VTV and DVY.  Mid-Cap Blend will take care of itself.  As … [Read More...]

400 Level

Bullish Percent Indicators

Platinum members should check out the Bullish Percent Index post over on the new website. If you have not registered on the new site, please do as soon as possible.   … [Read More...]

Top Core Stocks Analyzed Using QPP Plus Delta Factor Projections

Seeking top core stocks from investors who participate in the Growth Forum, the following analysis shows portfolio projections, the correlations within the portfolio, and the "Delta Stock" projections. QPP Analysis:  Nearly equal percentages are assigned to each stock.  The analysis spans five years and the S&P 500 is projected to grow 7.0% per year over the next few years.  Readers … [Read More...]