100 Level

Portfolio Construction Index Funds Advisors (IFA) Style

Bob Warasila passed on several references from the http://www.ifa.com web site that deal with portfolio construction.  [I consider Mark Hebner's web IFA site to be one of the best available.]  Keep in mind that IFA is a company that uses Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) mutual funds and the only way one gains access to these funds is through an approved advisor such as Index Funds … [Read More...]

Gordon Equation Revisited

Back on December 16, 2009, I wrote the following over on the old blog. Market Return = Dividend Yield + Dividend Growth Rate is known as the Gordon Equation. This simple equation provides a way to predict long-term stock market returns, and we need to emphasize long-term.  Quoting Bernstein from his “Four Pillars of Investing” book, page 57, “…the Gordon Equation … [Read More...]

300 Level

Mosaic Portfolio Lookback – September 30, 2008

Bear Market Analysis of 2008 Investors with a memory of 2008 know that desperation was in everyone's mind.  How far could the market decline and when would it stop?  Continuing with our look-back theme, what information can we glean from the QPP analysis and what were the Delta Index signals? There is nothing I can see in the following data that throws up any warning flags and we … [Read More...]

Four Security Portfolio

The following four security portfolio was recommended for testing by a Platinum member.  FTIIX was substituted for other index funds as the first and second choices did not have sufficient historical data for the Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP) analysis.  The following screen shot shows the projections for VTI, VEU, BND, and FTIIX. QPP Analysis:  One quick observation is the lack of … [Read More...]

200 Level

Should You Attempt To Pick Individual Stocks?

Should you be involved in selecting individual stocks or is this activity best left to other investors?  Two recent Seeking Alpha articles appeared on this subject and the links are provided below. "Five Ways You Can Excel at Picking Stocks" "Should Stock Picking Be Mostly Left To Professionals" When I read these articles, I was quickly reminded of an article I posted … [Read More...]

Portfolio Performance: 18 January 2013

One month passed since I last posted the portfolio performance data table.  While every portfolio increased in value over the last month, in many cases the benchmarks increased at a faster rate than the portfolios IRR values.  When comparing performance with the ITA Index, the Curie, Newton, Kepler, and Kenilworth gained ground on the customized benchmark.  Maintaining the same difference were the … [Read More...]

400 Level

Using Treasuries to Reduce Risk

Compare the following portfolio (QPP analysis) with the risk reducing portfolio I suggested last week.  In the following portfolio, I stripped percentages off several equity and REIT ETFs and allocated those assets to a combination of TIP and TLT.  While the projected return is reduced, the projected standard deviation comes down at a faster rate giving one a higher Return/Uncertainty … [Read More...]

Delta Factor: What Is It?

Exactly what is the "Delta Factor?"  While I don't plan to reveal the exact algorithm, here are the basic ideas.   1.  A growth projection is estimated for the S&P 500 for the next year.  In most cases, I assume the S&P 500 will grow at an annualized rate of 7% over the next several months. 2.  The historical period is set for three to five … [Read More...]