100 Level

AAII Journal: November Issue

As a lifetime member of the American Association of Individual Investors, I receive their journal each month. The November issue was of particular interest as it included 20 pages of the best financial web sites on the Internet. In addition to all those investment links this issue carried their ETF portfolio of which I analyze in a post tomorrow. There is also an article, "Is the Stock … [Read More...]

Are Optimizers Anything But Error Maximizers?

Mean-Variance Optimization "Mean-variance optimization presents an illusion of precision that is seductive but generally fallacious and even dangerous."  So writes Richard O. Michaud in his book, Efficient Asset Management: A Practical Guide to Stock Portfolio Optimization and Asset Allocation.  Harold R. Evensky provides this MVO warning.  "In spite of my strong defense of Markowitz's … [Read More...]

300 Level

Portfolio Monitoring – Kepler Portfolio – 6 June 2011

Kepler Portfolio Monitoring Asset Allocation is one of our guiding principles, and it is modeled properly in the Dashboard of the Kepler Portfolio.  To get to this point I did need to allocate 1% point to cash and reduce Large-Cap Blend by one percentage point.  I am still using a 25% threshold with this portfolio as the total portfolio value is modest.  Nevertheless, this is the … [Read More...]

Balancing Risk Over A Ten ETF Portfolio

In response to a Platinum member, the following QPP analysis is set up in a manner to equalize risk across the different ETFs rather than set up a capitalization asset allocation.  Note that I am using a 56-month time frame as I wanted to span the last bear market while avoiding any short-record issues with ETFs that have not been in existence for five years. To come up with the percentages … [Read More...]

200 Level

SORDEX Ratio Blog Post Reworked

I just reworked an older SORDEX blog post.  The reason I did not bring this post forward is that there are links when one searches for this information on the Internet and I don't want to break those links. I will likely rework this concept using the latest projected portfolio volatility as the numbers don't look quite so bad with the lower standard deviation projections. … [Read More...]

Portfolio Review

Einstein Portfolio Review With the computer alarm ringing this morning, I noted it was time to update the Einstein Portfolio.  For new members, I cycle through seven key portfolios used as examples for interested investors.  The Einstein Portfolio is one of the seven.  During each review, I first look over the asset allocation worksheet called the Dashboard.  Below is the … [Read More...]

400 Level

One Added Wrinkle to the ITARR Model

One change I plan to make in the ITA Risk Reduction (ITARR) model is the following.  When an ETF is out of the buy zone (priced below its 195-Day EMA), instead of waiting for it to cross from below to above the 195-Day EMA, pay attention to the Relative Strength Indicator.  Take a look at the following example. … [Read More...]

Examination Day Arrives for Gauss Portfolio

Regular Platinum readers are well aware that the Gauss Portfolio is one of the ITA Risk Reduction candidates.  Here we are near the end of the month and it is once more time to check on the ETF prices and their respective 195-Day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).  For those new to the ITARR model, we use StockCharts for our analysis information.  Below is a screen shot for VNQ, the … [Read More...]